Rotherham v Newport County

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rotherham win at 49%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Rotherham was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
3. 1′KICK-OFF Rotherham v Newport County
4. 4′We published Rotherham at 49%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–10
5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Rotherham 1–0 Newport County
6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Rotherham win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
7. 5′Paul Mullin scores for Rotherham on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–10
8. 13′Aaron Nemane scores for Rotherham on 12′. 1–0 · 74–17–9
9. 13′We published Rotherham at 49%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–3
10. 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Rotherham 2–0 Newport County · Aaron Nemane
11. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Rotherham win: 49% at kick-off, 91% now
12. 16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Jamie Jellis · Rotherham
13. 28′28′: Harrison Biggins on the scoresheet for Newport County. 2–0 · 92–6–2
14. 28′We published Rotherham at 49%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–17–8
15. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Rotherham 2–1 Newport County · Harrison Biggins (penalty)
16. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Rotherham win: 49% at kick-off, 75% now
17. 30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 75–17–7
18. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Paul Mullin · Rotherham
19. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Gerard Garner · Newport County
20. 45′HALF-TIME Rotherham 2–1 Newport County
21. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Newport County · On: Matthew Smith · Off: Alfie Merritt
22. 45′SECOND HALF Rotherham 2–1 Newport County
23. 54′We said Rotherham at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 2–2 · 35–44–21
24. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Rotherham win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
25. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Rotherham 2–2 Newport County
26. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Rotherham win: 49% at kick-off, 35% now
27. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Rotherham win 79%)
28. 55′We said Rotherham at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–44–21
29. 55′Rotherham have had 10 attempts to 3 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 34–44–21
30. 55′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 34–44–21
31. 56′Gerard Garner scores for Newport County on 54′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 34–45–21
32. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Newport County · On: Kion Etete · Off: Gerard Garner
33. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Newport County · On: Yahya Bamba · Off: Michael Adu-Poku
34. 64′We said Rotherham at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–52–18
35. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Rotherham win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
36. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Rotherham · On: K. Lolas · Off: Jili Buyabu
37. 71′We said Rotherham at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–61–15
38. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Rotherham · On: Kieran Ngwenya · Off: Denzel Hall
39. 76′We said Rotherham at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–68–13
40. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Rotherham win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
41. 81′We said Rotherham at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–77–9
42. 85′We said Rotherham at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–85–6
43. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Rotherham win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
44. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Rotherham · On: Tom Bradshaw · Off: kian spence
45. 90′Full time, 2–2. We called Rotherham at 49% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–2 · 0–100–0
46. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' H. Douglas · Rotherham
47. 91′We said Rotherham at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
48. FTFULL TIME Rotherham 2–2 Newport County
49. FTRotherham 2–2 Newport County · Rotherham win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.