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Rotherham v Gillingham

Rotherham

1–4Full time

Gillingham

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · New York Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Rotherham 1–4 Gillingham ROTHERHAM WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rotherham win~~49%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.869

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.851

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rotherham win at 49%.
2′Much as we predicted: Rotherham was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
2′KICK-OFF Rotherham v Gillingham
16′17′ and it is 0–0: Paul Mullin on the scoresheet for Rotherham. 0–0 · 46–30–24
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Rotherham 1–0 Gillingham · Paul Mullin (assist kian spence)
21′We published Rotherham at 49%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Rotherham win: 49% at kick-off, 76% now
30′Gillingham ahead on 34′ through Ronan Chapman Hale. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–6
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Rotherham 1–0 Gillingham · Ronan Chapman Hale
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Rotherham 1–1 Gillingham · Ronan Chapman Hale
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Rotherham win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Rotherham win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME Rotherham 1–1 Gillingham
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rotherham · On: Jamie Jellis · Off: Ossama Ashley
46′SECOND HALF Rotherham 1–1 Gillingham
47′We said Rotherham at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–41–22
49′🟨 YELLOW · 47' James Brophy · Gillingham
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Logan Dobbs · Gillingham
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Rotherham 1–1 Gillingham · Lamin Sillah
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Rotherham 1–2 Gillingham · Lamin Sillah
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rotherham · On: Tom Bradshaw · Off: Josh Austerfield
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Julian Eyestone · Rotherham
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Rotherham 1–3 Gillingham · Ronan Chapman Hale
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Rotherham · On: Aaron Nemane · Off: kian spence
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Rotherham 1–3 Gillingham · Ronan Chapman Hale
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Dominic Iorfa · Rotherham
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Gillingham · On: Ethan·Coleman · Off: Armani Little
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Gillingham · On: Bradley Dack · Off: Harry Waldock
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Gillingham · On: S. Kendall · Off: Ronan Chapman Hale
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Gillingham · On: Tom Eaves · Off: Lamin Sillah
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Gillingham · On: Jack Daley · Off: Logan Dobbs
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rotherham · On: Jayce Fitzgerald · Off: Dominic Iorfa
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Sonny Aljofree · Rotherham
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Rotherham 1–4 Gillingham · Tom Eaves
FTFULL TIME Rotherham 1–4 Gillingham
FTRotherham 1–4 Gillingham · Rotherham win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Rotherham win49%

Draw27%

Gillingham win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · New York Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Rotherham

3-4-2-1

13 J. Eyestone

27 D. Iorfa

14 S. Aljofree

5 K. Ngwenya

12 D. Hall

28 B. Cover

6 O. Ashley

24 J. Buyabu

8 K. Spence

4 J. Austerfield

10 P. Mullin

Coach · Alex Bruce

Substitutes

1 · T. Cann

2 · J. Rafferty

26 · H. Douglas

22 · J. Jellis

15 · J. Fitzgerald

23 · A. Nemane

9 · T. Bradshaw

Gillingham

3-4-3

1 O. Wright

5 A. Smith

19 O. Beckles

26 L. Dobbs

22 N. Freeman

14 R. McKenzie

8 A. Little

16 J. Brophy

24 H. Waldock

11 L. Sillah

10 R. Hale

Coach · Gareth Ainsworth

Substitutes

40 · R. Luthra

20 · J. Daley

23 · B. Dack

6 · E. Coleman

17 · C. Antwi

39 · T. Eaves

18 · S. Kendall

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rotherham

3-4-2-1

13 J. Eyestone

27 D. Iorfa

14 S. Aljofree

5 K. Ngwenya

12 D. Hall

28 B. Cover

6 O. Ashley

24 J. Buyabu

8 K. Spence

4 J. Austerfield

10 P. Mullin

Coach · Alex Bruce

Substitutes

1 · T. Cann

2 · J. Rafferty

26 · H. Douglas

22 · J. Jellis

15 · J. Fitzgerald

23 · A. Nemane

9 · T. Bradshaw

Gillingham

3-4-3

1 O. Wright

5 A. Smith

19 O. Beckles

26 L. Dobbs

22 N. Freeman

14 R. McKenzie

8 A. Little

16 J. Brophy

24 H. Waldock

11 L. Sillah

10 R. Hale

Coach · Gareth Ainsworth

Substitutes

40 · R. Luthra

20 · J. Daley

23 · B. Dack

6 · E. Coleman

17 · C. Antwi

39 · T. Eaves

18 · S. Kendall

Our number · rotherham winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

49% The market47%

Us49%

~~Market~~47%

We make Rotherham a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rotherham win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rotherham win	49%	47%	+1
Draw	27%	27%	−1
Gillingham win	25%	26%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	49%	−5
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	29%	−6
Rotherham or draw	75%	74%	+1
Rotherham clean sheet	38%	–	–
Gillingham clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 9.0 8.4 4.1 1 12.7 12.4 6.0 2 9.3 8.9 4.4 3 4.6 4.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rotherham down, Gillingham across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,887 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Rotherham at home: 1.75 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Gillingham away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Rotherham, 0.97 for Gillingham. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in League Two

ROTHERHAM

DLDWDL2–2 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

GILLINGHAM

DWWWLD1–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	9	+3	16
2	Barnet	7	+7	15
3	Crewe	9	+4	15
4	Cheltenham	9	+2	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	0	15
6	York	8	+6	14
7	Walsall	8	+6	14
8	Chesterfield	9	+3	14
9	Grimsby	9	+3	13
10	Gillingham	9	+2	13
11	Rochdale	9	−1	13
12	Tranmere	9	0	11
13	Swindon Town	9	−4	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	−5	11
15	Newport County	9	0	10
16	Accrington ST	9	−1	10
17	Rotherham	9	−1	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	−1	10
19	Colchester	8	−2	10
20	Exeter City	9	−1	9
21	Oldham	8	−4	7
22	Northampton	7	−3	6
23	Port Vale	7	−6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	−7	4