Rochdale v Grimsby

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Grimsby win at 39%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Grimsby 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
3. 1′KICK-OFF Rochdale v Grimsby
4. 7′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Charles Vernam · Grimsby
5. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Babajide Ezekiel Adeeko · Rochdale
6. 37′12 shots for Grimsby, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 31–36–34
7. 38′We said Grimsby at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 67–22–11
8. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Rochdale 1–0 Grimsby
9. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, 11% now
10. 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Rochdale win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Grimsby win 35%)
11. 39′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 67–22–11
12. 39′Rochdale ahead on 39′ through Dajaune Brown. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
13. 41′Rochdale ahead on 38′ through Dajaune Brown. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–10
14. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Maldini Kacurri · Grimsby
15. 45′We said Grimsby at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
16. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
17. 45′HALF-TIME Rochdale 1–0 Grimsby
18. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rochdale · On: K. Taylor · Off: Olutobi Adebayo-Rowling
19. 45′SECOND HALF Rochdale 1–0 Grimsby
20. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Edward Francis · Rochdale
21. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Jamie Walker · Grimsby
22. 58′57′: Kieran Green on the scoresheet for Grimsby. 1–0 · 73–21–6
23. 58′We said Grimsby at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 25–48–27
24. 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Rochdale 1–1 Grimsby · Kieran Green
25. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, 27% now
26. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Rochdale win 73%)
27. 64′We said Grimsby at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 22–54–24
28. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Rochdale · On: sam beckwith · Off: Babajide Ezekiel Adeeko
29. 67′🟥 RED CARD · 67' Rochdale
30. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Cian Hayes · Rochdale
31. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Ian Watson · Rochdale
32. 72′We said Grimsby at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–63–19
33. 72′16 shots for Grimsby, 11 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 18–63–19
34. 72′We said Grimsby at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–2 · 2–16–82
35. 72′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–16–82
36. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
37. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Rochdale 1–2 Grimsby
38. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, 82% now
39. 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Grimsby win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 63%)
40. 73′73′: Jamie Walker on the scoresheet for Grimsby, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–83
41. 74′72′: Jamie Walker on the scoresheet for Grimsby, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–84
42. 77′We said Grimsby at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–2 · 1–13–86
43. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Rochdale · On: Luke Hannant · Off: Cian Hayes
44. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Grimsby · On: Sonny Finch · Off: Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor
45. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Grimsby · On: Cian Doyle · Off: Jamie Walker
46. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
47. 82′We said Grimsby at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
48. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rochdale · On: Ian Henderson · Off: K. Taylor
49. 88′We said Grimsby at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
50. 89′22 shots for Grimsby, 11 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 5–90–5
51. 89′Rochdale level it on 88′ through Ian Henderson. 2–2. 2–2 · 5–90–5
52. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Rochdale 2–2 Grimsby
53. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
54. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Grimsby win 95%)
55. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Grimsby · On: Finn Cartwright · Off: Iwan Morgan
56. 90′We said Grimsby at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–4
57. 91′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 3–93–4
58. FTFULL TIME Rochdale 2–2 Grimsby
59. FTRochdale 2–2 Grimsby · Grimsby win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.