Rochdale v Accrington ST prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Rochdale 0–5 Accrington ST ROCHDALE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rochdale win~~42%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.708

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.555

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rochdale win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rochdale 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Rochdale v Accrington ST
13′We said Rochdale at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–23–60
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Rochdale 0–1 Accrington ST
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Rochdale win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Accrington ST win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Rochdale win 40%)
14′Accrington ST find the net on 14′. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–23–60
22′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Accrington ST · On: Alex Henderson · Off: Josh Woods
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' David Tutonda · Accrington ST
26′We said Rochdale at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 13–23–63
35′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Donald Love · Accrington ST
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Rochdale win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
39′Charlie Warren scores for Accrington ST on 38′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–89
39′We said Rochdale at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–89
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Rochdale 0–2 Accrington ST · Charlie Warren
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Rochdale win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
45′HALF-TIME Rochdale 0–3 Accrington ST
45′SECOND HALF Rochdale 0–3 Accrington ST
47′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–2–98
47′45′: Tyler Walton on the scoresheet for Accrington ST, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Rochdale 0–3 Accrington ST
51′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Alex Henderson · Accrington ST
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Rochdale 0–4 Accrington ST
52′Accrington ST ahead on 51′ through Tyler Walton. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Rochdale · On: Ian Henderson · Off: Babajide Ezekiel Adeeko
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Rochdale · On: Luke Hannant · Off: Sam·Sherring
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Charlie Warren · Accrington ST
66′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Rochdale 0–5 Accrington ST
67′Alex Henderson scores for Accrington ST on 66′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Rochdale · On: sam beckwith · Off: Charlie Tasker
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Rochdale · On: Jamie Paterson · Off: Cian Hayes
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Accrington ST · On: Conor Grant · Off: Aidan borland
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Rochdale · On: Zain Silcott-Duberry · Off: Glenn Middleton
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' sam beckwith · Rochdale
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Accrington ST · On: Charlie·Brown · Off: Charlie Warren
FTFULL TIME Rochdale 0–5 Accrington ST
FTRochdale 0–5 Accrington ST · Rochdale win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rochdale are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rochdale 42%, draw 27%, Accrington ST 32%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Rochdale v Accrington STBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rochdale win42%

Draw27%

Accrington ST win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueSpotland

Line-ups

Rochdale

4-2-3-1

Accrington ST

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rochdale

Accrington ST

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Accrington ST	12	+1	15
14	Rochdale	12	−2	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rochdale

4-2-3-1

20 Sam William John Waller

26 S. Sherring

44 A. Flint

3 Kaiden Wilson

2 C. Tasker

8 H. Gilmour

17 B. Adeeko

7 C. Hayes

14 E. Francis

45 G. Middleton

39 D. Brown

Coach · Ian Watson

Substitutes

33 · S. Beckwith

19 · L. Hannant

40 · I. Henderson

35 · J. Paterson

11 · Z. Silcott-Duberry

12 · J. Spaven

56 · Reece Leonard

Accrington ST

3-4-1-2

1 L. Moulden

2 D. Love

17 D. Matthews

22 J. Anderson

38 C. O'Brien

14 Stefan Mols

16 Aidan Borland

33 D. Tutonda

39 J. Woods

23 T. Walton

30 C. Warren

Coach · J. Doolan

Substitutes

3 · Oliver Smith

20 · C. Brown

8 · C. Grant

10 · Alex Henderson

4 · T. Moore

5 · F. Rawson

21 · J. Rogerson

Our number · rochdale winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market33%

Us42%

~~Market~~33%

We make Rochdale a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rochdale v Accrington ST~~1.39 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 15~~14 v 11

~~The market · Rochdale win~~33% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rochdale win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rochdale win	42%	33%	+9
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Accrington ST win	32%	39%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Rochdale or draw	68%	61%	+7
Rochdale clean sheet	31%	–	–
Accrington ST clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.1 9.0 5.4 2.1 1 10.6 12.5 7.2 2.9 2 7.4 8.5 5.0 3 3.5 4.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rochdale down, Accrington ST across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,923 League Two matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rochdale at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Accrington ST away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Rochdale, 1.18 for Accrington ST. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ACC 3–3 ROC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 19 Sept

ROCHDALE

WWWDLD2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2

ACCRINGTON ST

DDWDWD0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	10	+8	21
3	Crewe	12	+4	21
4	Walsall	11	+9	19
5	Cheltenham	12	−1	18
6	York	11	+6	17
7	Gillingham	12	+3	17
8	Shrewsbury	12	−4	17
9	Chesterfield	12	+2	16
10	Exeter City	12	+2	16
11	Accrington ST	12	+1	15
12	Newport County	12	+1	15
13	Tranmere	12	0	15
14	Rochdale	12	−2	15
15	Swindon Town	12	−3	15
16	Bristol Rovers	12	−4	15
17	Grimsby	12	0	14
18	Fleetwood Town	12	−1	14
19	Colchester	11	−3	12
20	Port Vale	10	−4	12
21	Oldham	11	−4	11
22	Rotherham	12	−6	11
23	Northampton	10	−2	10
24	Crawley Town	10	−9	5