Port Vale v Rochdale prediction · League Two

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Port ValeDrawRochdale

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Port Vale 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Port Vale are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Port Vale 53%, draw 26%, Rochdale 22%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Port Vale v RochdaleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Port Vale win53%

Draw26%

Rochdale win22%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 14

VenueVale Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Port Vale

Rochdale

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Rochdale	13	−7	15
23	Port Vale	11	−6	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · port vale winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Port Vale a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Port Vale v Rochdale~~1.58 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 15~~23 v 17

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Port Vale win	53%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Rochdale win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Port Vale or draw	78%	–	–
Port Vale clean sheet	41%	–	–
Rochdale clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 8.9 7.5 3.5 1 13.1 11.9 5.3 2 10.3 9.1 4.1 3 5.5 4.8 2.2 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Port Vale down, Rochdale across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,934 League Two matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Port Vale at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Rochdale away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Port Vale, 0.90 for Rochdale. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ROC 1–1 POR · POR 1–0 ROC · POR 2–3 ROC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 12 Sept

PORT VALE

WLWWDL1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

ROCHDALE

WWDLDL2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	11	+8	22
3	Cheltenham	13	0	21
4	Crewe	13	0	21
5	York	12	+8	20
6	Walsall	11	+9	19
7	Chesterfield	13	+6	19
8	Exeter City	13	+3	19
9	Accrington ST	13	+6	18
10	Shrewsbury	13	−4	18
11	Grimsby	13	+3	17
12	Gillingham	13	0	17
13	Tranmere	13	0	16
14	Swindon Town	13	−3	16
15	Bristol Rovers	13	−4	16
16	Newport County	13	0	15
17	Rochdale	13	−7	15
18	Fleetwood Town	13	−2	14
19	Northampton	11	0	13
20	Oldham	12	−4	12
21	Colchester	12	−5	12
22	Rotherham	13	−6	12
23	Port Vale	11	−6	12
24	Crawley Town	11	−9	6