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Port Vale v Grimsby

Port Vale

1–0Full time

Grimsby

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · Vale Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Port Vale 1–0 Grimsby PORT VALE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Port Vale win~~41%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.529

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.660

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Port Vale win at 41%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Port Vale 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
3′KICK-OFF Port Vale v Grimsby
31′8.0 shots for Port Vale, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–35–29
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Port Vale win 34%)
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' George Cardinal Joseph·Hall · Port Vale
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Port Vale 1–0 Grimsby · Kyle Dempsey (assist Jaheim·Headley)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Finn Cartwright · Grimsby
45′HALF-TIME Port Vale 1–0 Grimsby
46′SECOND HALF Port Vale 1–0 Grimsby
47′Kyle Dempsey scores for Port Vale on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Port Vale win: 41% at kick-off, 74% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Port Vale win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
62′🟨 YELLOW · 42' George Cardinal Joseph·Hall · Port Vale
62′⚽ GOAL · 45' Port Vale 1–0 Grimsby · Kyle Dempsey (assist Jaheim·Headley)
62′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Finn Cartwright · Grimsby
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Grimsby · On: Jamie Walker · Off: Finn Cartwright
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Grimsby · On: Iwan Morgan · Off: Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Port Vale · On: Rhys Walters · Off: George Cardinal Joseph·Hall
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Port Vale · On: Oliver Lynch · Off: Max Watters
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Port Vale · On: Ben Waine · Off: Onel Hernández
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Port Vale · On: George Byers · Off: Kyle Dempsey
FTFULL TIME Port Vale 1–0 Grimsby
FTPort Vale 1–0 Grimsby · Port Vale win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Port Vale win41%

Draw27%

Grimsby win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Vale Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Port Vale

3-5-2

20 M. Marosi

25 C. Humphreys

4 J. Moon

5 C. Hall

6 J. Lawrence-Gabriel

33 G. Hall

10 K. Dempsey

8 B. Garrity

3 J. Headley

36 M. Watters

11 O. Hernandez

Coach · Jon Brady

Substitutes

1 · J. Smith

2 · Kyle John

38 · R. Walters

7 · G. Byers

19 · B. Waine

27 · M. Asamoah

14 · O. Lynch

Grimsby

4-1-4-1

31 C. Pym

5 H. Rodgers

2 M. Kacurri

17 C. McJannet

3 J. Sweeney

15 G. D. Turi

14 J. Amaluzor

4 K. Green

28 F. Cartwright

30 C. Vernam

39 A. Cook

Coach · David Artell

Substitutes

1 · H. Cartwright

26 · E. Pruti

7 · J. Walker

11 · R. Reynolds

8 · C. Doyle

10 · S. Finch

9 · I. Morgan

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Port Vale

3-5-2

20 M. Marosi

25 C. Humphreys

4 J. Moon

5 C. Hall

6 J. Lawrence-Gabriel

33 G. Hall

10 K. Dempsey

8 B. Garrity

3 J. Headley

36 M. Watters

11 O. Hernandez

Coach · Jon Brady

Substitutes

1 · J. Smith

2 · Kyle John

38 · R. Walters

7 · G. Byers

19 · B. Waine

27 · M. Asamoah

14 · O. Lynch

Grimsby

4-1-4-1

31 C. Pym

5 H. Rodgers

2 M. Kacurri

17 C. McJannet

3 J. Sweeney

15 G. D. Turi

14 J. Amaluzor

4 K. Green

28 F. Cartwright

30 C. Vernam

39 A. Cook

Coach · David Artell

Substitutes

1 · H. Cartwright

26 · E. Pruti

7 · J. Walker

11 · R. Reynolds

8 · C. Doyle

10 · S. Finch

9 · I. Morgan

Our number · port vale winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

41% The market34%

Us41%

~~Market~~34%

We make Port Vale a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · port vale win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Port Vale win	41%	34%	+7
Draw	27%	29%	−1
Grimsby win	32%	38%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
Port Vale or draw	68%	62%	+6
Port Vale clean sheet	33%	–	–
Grimsby clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.1 9.7 5.6 2.1 1 11.3 12.8 7.1 2.7 2 7.5 8.3 4.7 3 3.3 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Port Vale down, Grimsby across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,887 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Port Vale at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Grimsby away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Port Vale, 1.13 for Grimsby. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~POR 2–2 GRI · GRI 3–0 POR

Form · last six in League Two

PORT VALE

DDLLWL1–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

GRIMSBY

DDWWLL2–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	9	+3	16
2	Barnet	7	+7	15
3	Crewe	9	+4	15
4	Cheltenham	9	+2	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	0	15
6	York	8	+6	14
7	Walsall	8	+6	14
8	Chesterfield	9	+3	14
9	Grimsby	9	+3	13
10	Gillingham	9	+2	13
11	Rochdale	9	−1	13
12	Tranmere	9	0	11
13	Swindon Town	9	−4	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	−5	11
15	Newport County	9	0	10
16	Accrington ST	9	−1	10
17	Rotherham	9	−1	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	−1	10
19	Colchester	8	−2	10
20	Exeter City	9	−1	9
21	Oldham	8	−4	7
22	Northampton	7	−3	6
23	Port Vale	7	−6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	−7	4