Port Vale v Chesterfield prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Port Vale 1–0 Chesterfield PORT VALE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Port Vale win~~40%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.539

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.683

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Port Vale win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Port Vale was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
1′KICK-OFF Port Vale v Chesterfield
8′Much as we predicted: Port Vale was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
17′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Cameron Humphreys · Port Vale
32′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Jordan Gabriel · Port Vale
35′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Chesterfield · On: Josh Koroma · Off: Joel Randall
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Port Vale win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Port Vale 1–0 Chesterfield
46′We published Port Vale at 40%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–20–7
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Port Vale 1–0 Chesterfield
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Port Vale win: 40% at kick-off, 74% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Port Vale win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
46′SECOND HALF Port Vale 1–0 Chesterfield
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 74–20–6
47′45′: Onel Hernández on the scoresheet for Port Vale, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–7
50′We published Port Vale at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Ryan Stirk · Chesterfield
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Jaheim·Headley · Port Vale
64′We published Port Vale at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Port Vale win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Port Vale · On: Oliver Lynch · Off: Max Watters
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Port Vale · On: Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales · Off: Onel Hernández
68′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Lewis Gordon · Chesterfield
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Jon Edmund Alexander Brady · Port Vale
74′We published Port Vale at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
74′7 shots for Chesterfield, 2 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 85–13–1
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Port Vale · On: George Byers · Off: George Cardinal Joseph·Hall
76′Chesterfield have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–1
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Port Vale · On: Kyle John · Off: Jaheim·Headley
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Port Vale · On: Rhys Walters · Off: Kyle Dempsey
80′We published Port Vale at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Port Vale win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Chesterfield · On: Tom Pearce · Off: Lewis Gordon
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Chesterfield · On: Liam Mandeville · Off: Ryan Stirk
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Chesterfield · On: Kiano Dyer · Off: Louie Marsh
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Chesterfield · On: Will Grigg · Off: Dilan Markanday
87′We published Port Vale at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Port Vale 1–0 Chesterfield
FTPort Vale 1–0 Chesterfield · Port Vale win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Port Vale are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Port Vale 40%, draw 27%, Chesterfield 32%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Port Vale v ChesterfieldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Port Vale win40%

Draw27%

Chesterfield win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueVale Park

Line-ups

Port Vale

3-5-2

Chesterfield

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Port Vale

Chesterfield

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Chesterfield	10	+3	15
22	Port Vale	8	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Port Vale

3-5-2

20 M. Marosi

25 C. Humphreys

4 J. Moon

5 C. Hall

6 J. Lawrence-Gabriel

10 K. Dempsey

33 G. Hall

8 B. Garrity

3 J. Headley

36 M. Watters

11 O. Hernandez

Coach · Jon Brady

Substitutes

1 · J. Smith

2 · Kyle John

38 · R. Walters

7 · G. Byers

27 · M. Asamoah

24 · K. Figueroa

14 · O. Lynch

Chesterfield

4-2-3-1

23 R. Boot

33 R. Hutton

5 K. McFadzean

6 J. Simpson

19 L. Gordon

20 G. McEachran

8 R. Stirk

24 D. Markanday

18 L. Marsh

31 J. Randall

10 L. Bonis

Coach · Paul Cook

Substitutes

46 · T. Pearce

26 · J. Eccleston

7 · L. Mandeville

27 · K. Dyer

4 · T. Naylor

28 · W. Grigg

37 · J. Koroma

Our number · port vale winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market33%

Us40%

~~Market~~33%

We make Port Vale a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Port Vale v Chesterfield~~1.31 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 15~~22 v 7

~~The market · Port Vale win~~33% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Port Vale win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Port Vale win	40%	33%	+7
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Chesterfield win	32%	38%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	44%	45%	−1
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Over 3.5 goals	23%	25%	−2
Port Vale or draw	68%	62%	+6
Port Vale clean sheet	32%	–	–
Chesterfield clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.0 9.8 5.7 2.2 1 11.2 12.8 7.2 2.8 2 7.3 8.2 4.7 3 3.2 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Port Vale down, Chesterfield across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Port Vale at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Chesterfield away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Port Vale, 1.14 for Chesterfield. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–1 POR · CHE 1–1 POR · POR 1–0 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 29 Aug

PORT VALE

DLLWLW0–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

CHESTERFIELD

DWWLWD3–3 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	10	+5	19
2	Barnet	8	+9	18
3	Crewe	10	+5	18
4	Gillingham	10	+5	16
5	York	9	+6	15
6	Walsall	9	+6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	+3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	−2	15
10	Rochdale	10	−1	14
11	Grimsby	10	+2	13
12	Newport County	10	+1	13
13	Tranmere	10	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	−1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	−1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	−5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	−6	11
19	Colchester	9	−3	10
20	Rotherham	10	−4	10
21	Oldham	9	−4	8
22	Port Vale	8	−5	8
23	Northampton	8	−3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	−7	5