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Oldham v Cheltenham
Oldham
CheltenhamLeague Two · SAT 17 OCT · Boundary Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Oldham win at 51%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Oldham v Cheltenham
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Oldham 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
- 9′Little has changed for our model: Oldham 51% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–25
- 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Oldham 1–0 Cheltenham
- 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Oldham win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
- 20′We said Oldham at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
- 20′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Shaun McWilliams · Cheltenham
- 22′Calum Kavanagh scores for Oldham on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
- 25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Charlie McCann · Cheltenham
- 26′We said Oldham at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–2
- 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Oldham 2–0 Cheltenham
- 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Oldham win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
- 27′26′: Jamie Robson on the scoresheet for Oldham, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
- 28′25′: Jamie Robson on the scoresheet for Oldham, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
- 43′Oldham ahead on 41′ through Favour fawunmi. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 43′We said Oldham at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 43′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 43′⚽ GOAL · 41' Oldham 3–0 Cheltenham · Favour fawunmi
- 45′Freddie willcox scores for Cheltenham on 45′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
- 45′HALF-TIME Oldham 3–1 Cheltenham
- 46′SECOND HALF Oldham 3–1 Cheltenham
- 47′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 95–4–1
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Oldham 3–1 Cheltenham
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Cheltenham · On: K. Otchere · Off: Shaun McWilliams
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Oldham · On: Mike·Fondop-Talum · Off: Kane drummond
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cheltenham · On: Jake Bickerstaff · Off: George Miller
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Oldham · On: Oliver Hammond · Off: Favour fawunmi
- 81′We said Oldham at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 82′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 82′81′: Jamie Robson on the scoresheet for Oldham, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Oldham 4–1 Cheltenham
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Oldham · On: Kai Payne · Off: Tom Pett
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Cheltenham · On: Favour onukwuli · Off: Jake Evans
- FTFULL TIME Oldham 4–1 Cheltenham
- FTOldham 4–1 Cheltenham · Oldham win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassOldham are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Oldham 51%, draw 24%, Cheltenham 25%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Oldham win51%
Cheltenham win25%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueBoundary Park
Match timeline
All events
OldhamMIN
CheltenhamEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Oldham
4-2-3-1
Cheltenham
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Oldham
Cheltenham
Last match: 13 Oct · EFL Trophy
Last match: 13 Oct · EFL Trophy
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Oldham
4-2-3-1
1 M. Hudson
16 W. Sutton
5 D. Daniels
6 M. Monthe
3 J. Robson
8 O. Norburn
7 K. Appiah-Forson
15 K. Drummond
4 T. Pett
17 F. Fawunmi
10 C. Kavanagh
Coach · Micky Mellon
Substitutes
22 · A. Wilson
24 · L. Temple
2 · G. Scott-Morriss
21 · J. Hawkes
27 · O. Hammond
26 · K. Payne
9 · M. Fondop
Cheltenham
4-2-3-1
23 W. Stanway
17 S. McWilliams
6 J. Wilson
25 P. Sweeney
21 G. Nurse
8 C. McCann
33 F. Willcox
19 J. Evans
18 A. Weimann
26 J. Shipley
10 G. Miller
Coach · Steve Cotterill
Substitutes
31 · M. Diallo
5 · R. Cundy
36 · A. Hill
9 · K. Otchere
11 · J. Bickerstaff
20 · F. Onukwuli
38 · J. Robinson
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Oldham
4-2-3-1
1 M. Hudson
16 W. Sutton
5 D. Daniels
6 M. Monthe
3 J. Robson
8 O. Norburn
7 K. Appiah-Forson
15 K. Drummond
4 T. Pett
17 F. Fawunmi
10 C. Kavanagh
Coach · Micky Mellon
Substitutes
22 · A. Wilson
24 · L. Temple
2 · G. Scott-Morriss
21 · J. Hawkes
27 · O. Hammond
26 · K. Payne
9 · M. Fondop
Cheltenham
4-2-3-1
23 W. Stanway
17 S. McWilliams
6 J. Wilson
25 P. Sweeney
21 G. Nurse
8 C. McCann
33 F. Willcox
19 J. Evans
18 A. Weimann
26 J. Shipley
10 G. Miller
Coach · Steve Cotterill
Substitutes
31 · M. Diallo
5 · R. Cundy
36 · A. Hill
9 · K. Otchere
11 · J. Bickerstaff
20 · F. Onukwuli
38 · J. Robinson
We make Oldham a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham win | 51% | 55% | −4 |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 0 |
| Cheltenham win | 25% | 21% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 33% | −3 |
| Oldham or draw | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Oldham clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Cheltenham clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in League Two this season · since 1 Sept
OLDHAM
CHELTENHAM
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | −2 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | −1 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | −1 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | −1 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | −5 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | −6 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | −3 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | −4 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | −4 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | −5 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | −7 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Salford City
Barnet
Crewe
Gillingham
York
Walsall
Chesterfield
Bristol Rovers
Rochdale
Grimsby
Newport County
Tranmere
Exeter City
Accrington ST
Fleetwood Town
Swindon Town
Shrewsbury
Colchester
Rotherham
Port Vale
Northampton
Crawley Town