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Model 1.2

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Oldham v Cheltenham

Oldham
4–1Full time
Cheltenham

League Two · SAT 17 OCT · Boundary Park

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Oldham 4–1 Cheltenham OLDHAM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Oldham win51%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.364
The market’s Brier score0.302

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Oldham win at 51%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Oldham v Cheltenham
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Oldham 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
  4. 9′Little has changed for our model: Oldham 51% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–25
  5. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Oldham 1–0 Cheltenham
  6. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Oldham win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
  7. 20′We said Oldham at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
  8. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Shaun McWilliams · Cheltenham
  9. 22′Calum Kavanagh scores for Oldham on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
  10. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Charlie McCann · Cheltenham
  11. 26′We said Oldham at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–2
  12. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Oldham 2–0 Cheltenham
  13. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Oldham win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
  14. 27′26′: Jamie Robson on the scoresheet for Oldham, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
  15. 28′25′: Jamie Robson on the scoresheet for Oldham, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
  16. 43′Oldham ahead on 41′ through Favour fawunmi. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  17. 43′We said Oldham at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  18. 43′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  19. 43′⚽ GOAL · 41' Oldham 3–0 Cheltenham · Favour fawunmi
  20. 45′Freddie willcox scores for Cheltenham on 45′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Oldham 3–1 Cheltenham
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Oldham 3–1 Cheltenham
  23. 47′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  24. 47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Oldham 3–1 Cheltenham
  25. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Cheltenham · On: K. Otchere · Off: Shaun McWilliams
  26. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Oldham · On: Mike·Fondop-Talum · Off: Kane drummond
  27. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cheltenham · On: Jake Bickerstaff · Off: George Miller
  28. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Oldham · On: Oliver Hammond · Off: Favour fawunmi
  29. 81′We said Oldham at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  30. 82′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  31. 82′81′: Jamie Robson on the scoresheet for Oldham, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  32. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Oldham 4–1 Cheltenham
  33. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Oldham · On: Kai Payne · Off: Tom Pett
  34. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Cheltenham · On: Favour onukwuli · Off: Jake Evans
  35. FTFULL TIME Oldham 4–1 Cheltenham
  36. FTOldham 4–1 Cheltenham · Oldham win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oldham are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oldham 51%, draw 24%, Cheltenham 25%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Oldham v CheltenhamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Oldham win51%
Draw24%
Cheltenham win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueBoundary Park

Line-ups

Oldham

4-2-3-1

Cheltenham

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oldham

Cheltenham

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · EFL Trophy

Last match: 13 Oct · EFL Trophy

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Cheltenham10015
21Oldham9−48

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Oldham

4-2-3-1

1 M. Hudson

16 W. Sutton

5 D. Daniels

6 M. Monthe

3 J. Robson

8 O. Norburn

7 K. Appiah-Forson

15 K. Drummond

4 T. Pett

17 F. Fawunmi

10 C. Kavanagh

Coach · Micky Mellon

Substitutes

22 · A. Wilson

24 · L. Temple

2 · G. Scott-Morriss

21 · J. Hawkes

27 · O. Hammond

26 · K. Payne

9 · M. Fondop

Cheltenham

4-2-3-1

23 W. Stanway

17 S. McWilliams

6 J. Wilson

25 P. Sweeney

21 G. Nurse

8 C. McCann

33 F. Willcox

19 J. Evans

18 A. Weimann

26 J. Shipley

10 G. Miller

Coach · Steve Cotterill

Substitutes

31 · M. Diallo

5 · R. Cundy

36 · A. Hill

9 · K. Otchere

11 · J. Bickerstaff

20 · F. Onukwuli

38 · J. Robinson

Our number · oldham winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
51% The market55%
Us51%
Market55%

We make Oldham a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Oldham v Cheltenham1.67 – 1.08
Form · last six in League Two this season · since 1 SeptW0 D2 L4 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 8 v 1521 v 8
The market · Oldham win55% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 11 OCT 03:5917 OCT 14:00
Our probability · Oldham win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Oldham win51%55%−4
Draw24%24%0
Cheltenham win25%21%+4
Over 2.5 goals52%53%−1
Both teams to score53%54%−1
Over 1.5 goals76%76%0
Over 3.5 goals30%33%−3
Oldham or draw75%79%−4
Oldham clean sheet34%––
Cheltenham clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 6.7 6.9 3.8 1 10.6 11.5 6.2 2.3 2 8.8 9.4 5.1 3 4.9 5.3 2.8 4 2.1 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Oldham down, Cheltenham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsOLD 2–1 CHE · CHE 0–3 OLD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 1 Sept

OLDHAM

DLLLLD1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 0–0

CHELTENHAM

DWDWLL2–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Salford City10+519
2Barnet8+918
3Crewe10+518
4Gillingham10+516
5York9+615
6Walsall9+615
7Chesterfield10+315
8Cheltenham10015
9Bristol Rovers10−215
10Rochdale10−114
11Grimsby10+213
12Newport County10+113
13Tranmere10012
14Exeter City10012
15Accrington ST10−111
16Fleetwood Town10−111
17Swindon Town10−511
18Shrewsbury10−611
19Colchester9−310
20Rotherham10−410
21Oldham9−48
22Port Vale8−58
23Northampton8−37
24Crawley Town8−75

The competition's standings before kick-off.