Northampton v Tranmere prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Northampton 0–1 Tranmere NORTHAMPTON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Northampton win~~50%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.925

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.749

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Northampton win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Northampton was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–23
1′KICK-OFF Northampton v Tranmere
23′7 shots for Northampton, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 45–33–22
34′Northampton have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 42–37–21
38′Tranmere score on 37′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–27–59
38′We said Northampton at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–59
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 14–27–59
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Northampton 0–1 Tranmere
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Northampton win: 50% at kick-off, 14% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Tranmere win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Northampton win 41%)
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Ryan Watson · Tranmere
45′HALF-TIME Northampton 0–1 Tranmere
45′SECOND HALF Northampton 0–1 Tranmere
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Northampton win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
52′We said Northampton at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
57′13 shots for Northampton, 6 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 8–24–68
67′We said Northampton at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Northampton · On: Elliott List · Off: Connor Lemonheigh-Evans
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Northampton · On: Nathaniel Opoku · Off: M. Warhurst
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Northampton · On: James Maxwell · Off: josh powell
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Northampton · On: Sam Hoskins · Off: Janoi Donacien
80′Northampton have had 16 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Northampton win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Lee O'Connor · Tranmere
93′Northampton have had 20 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Northampton 0–1 Tranmere
FTNorthampton 0–1 Tranmere · Northampton win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Northampton are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Northampton 50%, draw 27%, Tranmere 23%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Northampton v TranmereBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Northampton win50%

Draw27%

Tranmere win23%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSixfields Stadium

Line-ups

Northampton

4-4-2

Tranmere

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Northampton

Tranmere

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Tranmere	11	−1	12
22	Northampton	9	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Northampton

4-4-2

1 Z. Jeacock

44 J. Donacien

6 E. Moore

5 J. Guthrie

22 Joshua Alan Powell

16 J. Wormleighton

24 C. Lemonheigh-Evans

8 L. Evans

4 J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh

19 O. Dale

9 Matthew Warhurst

Coach · C. Hogg

Substitutes

35 · M. Dyche

14 · T. Fornah

7 · S. Hoskins

10 · E. List

3 · J. Maxwell

31 · J. Dadge

17 · N. Opoku

Tranmere

4-2-3-1

1 L. McGee

22 L. O'Connor

16 B. Faulkner

30 G. Nevett

3 J. Slater

6 W. Vaulks

44 R. Watson

29 D. Jones

10 T. Ince

7 Charlie Jay Whitaker

9 J. Ironside

Coach · D. Clarke

Substitutes

4 · J. Turnbull

20 · Charlie Veevers

24 · David Kamara

5 · N. Smith

13 · C. Boyce-Clarke

14 · O. Scott

11 · T. Conlon

Our number · northampton winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

50% The market41%

Us50%

~~Market~~41%

We make Northampton a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Northampton v Tranmere~~1.43 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 1 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~22 v 17

~~The market · Northampton win~~41% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Northampton win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Northampton win	50%	41%	+9
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Tranmere win	23%	30%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	40%	45%	−5
Both teams to score	43%	51%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	66%	69%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	25%	−5
Northampton or draw	77%	70%	+7
Northampton clean sheet	43%	–	–
Tranmere clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%

0123450 10.6 8.6 3.8 1 14.4 12.3 5.2 2 10.3 8.6 3.7 3 5.0 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Northampton down, Tranmere across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League Two matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Northampton at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tranmere away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Northampton, 0.86 for Tranmere. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TRA 0–1 NOR · NOR 0–0 TRA · NOR 3–2 TRA · TRA 0–2 NOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 1 Sept

NORTHAMPTON

DWLLDW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

TRANMERE

LDDLDL0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	11	+6	22
2	Barnet	9	+10	21
3	Crewe	11	+6	21
4	York	10	+6	16
5	Walsall	10	+6	16
6	Gillingham	11	+3	16
7	Chesterfield	11	+2	15
8	Cheltenham	11	−3	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	−3	15
10	Accrington ST	11	+1	14
11	Newport County	11	+1	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	+1	14
13	Rochdale	11	−2	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	−5	14
15	Grimsby	11	0	13
16	Exeter City	11	0	13
17	Tranmere	11	−1	12
18	Swindon Town	11	−5	12
19	Oldham	10	−1	11
20	Colchester	10	−3	11
21	Port Vale	9	−4	11
22	Northampton	9	−1	10
23	Rotherham	11	−6	10
24	Crawley Town	9	−8	5