Northampton v Colchester prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Northampton 2–0 Colchester NORTHAMPTON WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Northampton win~~40%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.538

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.437

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Northampton win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Northampton was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–31–29
1′KICK-OFF Northampton v Colchester
10′We published Northampton at 40%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
10′Northampton score on 9′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Northampton 1–0 Colchester
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Northampton win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Sam Hoskins · Northampton
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
31′We published Northampton at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Moses Sesay · Colchester
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Lee Evans · Northampton
45′HALF-TIME Northampton 1–0 Colchester
45′SECOND HALF Northampton 1–0 Colchester
50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Colchester · On: Jaden Williams · Off: Bradley ihionvein Corrected
51′We published Northampton at 40%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Northampton 2–0 Colchester
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Northampton win: 40% at kick-off, 96% now
52′Northampton ahead on 51′ through Sam Hoskins. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
52′Northampton ahead on 50′ through Sam Hoskins. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Colchester · On: Kane Vincent-Young · Off: Robert Donald Hunt
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Colchester · On: Jack Payne · Off: Jay Williams
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Northampton · On: josh powell · Off: James Maxwell
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Northampton · On: Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh · Off: Sam Hoskins
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Colchester · On: Paul Digby · Off: Ben perry
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Colchester · On: Kien Connelly · Off: Beryly Lubala
79′We published Northampton at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Northampton win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Northampton · On: Elliott List · Off: M. Warhurst
90′Full time, 2–0. We called Northampton at 40% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Northampton · On: Tyrese Fornah · Off: Owen Dale
FTFULL TIME Northampton 2–0 Colchester
FTNorthampton 2–0 Colchester · Northampton win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Northampton are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Northampton 40%, draw 31%, Colchester 29%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Northampton v ColchesterBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Northampton win40%

Draw31%

Colchester win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 13

VenueSixfields Stadium

Line-ups

Northampton

4-4-2

Colchester

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Northampton

Colchester

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	Colchester	11	−3	12
23	Northampton	10	−2	10

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Ex-Arsenal director of football Edu to advise NorthamptonBBC Sport · 23 Oct 11:27 · Arsenal, Northampton

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Northampton

4-4-2

1 Z. Jeacock

44 J. Donacien

6 E. Moore

5 J. Guthrie

3 J. Maxwell

16 J. Wormleighton

24 C. Lemonheigh-Evans

8 L. Evans

7 S. Hoskins

19 O. Dale

9 Matthew Warhurst

Coach · C. Hogg

Substitutes

20 · L. Briggs

35 · M. Dyche

14 · T. Fornah

10 · E. List

4 · J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh

22 · Joshua Alan Powell

31 · J. Dadge

Colchester

4-2-3-1

22 T. Lo-Tutala

2 R. Hunt

5 J. Tucker

24 F. Terry

3 E. Iandolo

26 J. Williams

4 Ben Perry

27 O. Thorn

12 M. Sesay

15 B. Lubala

9 B. Ihionvien

Coach · D. Cowley

Substitutes

30 · K. Vincent-Young

17 · Jaden Williams

20 · S. Raggett

10 · J. Payne

44 · S. Kuffour

6 · P. Digby

39 · K. Connelly

Our number · northampton winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

40% The market46%

Us40%

~~Market~~46%

We make Northampton a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Northampton v Colchester~~1.10 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D5 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~23 v 19

~~The market · Northampton win~~46% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Northampton win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Northampton win	40%	46%	−6
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Colchester win	29%	25%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	32%	44%	−12
Both teams to score	39%	49%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	58%	68%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	14%	24%	−10
Northampton or draw	71%	75%	−4
Northampton clean sheet	42%	–	–
Colchester clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.0%

0123450 14.5 12.0 5.3 1 15.0 13.2 5.7 2 8.3 7.1 3.2 3 3.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Northampton down, Colchester across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,923 League Two matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Northampton at home: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Colchester away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Northampton, 0.88 for Colchester. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 12:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~COL 0–1 NOR · NOR 3–2 COL · NOR 3–0 COL · COL 0–1 NOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept

NORTHAMPTON

WLLDWL1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

COLCHESTER

DDDLDD1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	10	+8	21
3	Crewe	12	+4	21
4	Walsall	11	+9	19
5	Cheltenham	12	−1	18
6	York	11	+6	17
7	Gillingham	12	+3	17
8	Shrewsbury	12	−4	17
9	Chesterfield	12	+2	16
10	Exeter City	12	+2	16
11	Accrington ST	12	+1	15
12	Newport County	12	+1	15
13	Tranmere	12	0	15
14	Rochdale	12	−2	15
15	Swindon Town	12	−3	15
16	Bristol Rovers	12	−4	15
17	Grimsby	12	0	14
18	Fleetwood Town	12	−1	14
19	Colchester	11	−3	12
20	Port Vale	10	−4	12
21	Oldham	11	−4	11
22	Rotherham	12	−6	11
23	Northampton	10	−2	10
24	Crawley Town	10	−9	5