Newport County v York

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said York win at 45%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: York was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 30–25–45
3. 1′KICK-OFF Newport County v York
4. 5′4′: Ollie Pearce on the scoresheet for York. 0–0 · 30–26–45
5. 5′We published York at 45%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 12–17–70
6. 5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Newport County 0–1 York · Ollie Pearce
7. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' York win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
8. 8′York ahead on 4′ through Ollie Pearce. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–71
9. 9′We published York at 45%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 12–18–71
10. 19′🟨 YELLOW · 17' M. Dibley-Dias · Newport County
11. 25′🟥 RED CARD · 25' York
12. 27′A red card for York on 24′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 10–19–72
13. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 9–19–72
14. 45′HALF-TIME Newport County 0–1 York
15. 45′SECOND HALF Newport County 0–1 York
16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Newport County · On: Matthew Smith · Off: Matty Jacobs
17. 47′We published York at 45%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
18. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' York win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
19. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Ollie Pearce · York
20. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Newport County · On: Kion Etete · Off: M. Dibley-Dias
21. 54′We said York at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 24–43–33
22. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Joey Grey · York
23. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Newport County 1–1 York
24. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' York win: 45% at kick-off, 33% now
25. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was York win 33%)
26. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' York win: 45% at kick-off, 32% now
27. 56′Kion Etete scores for Newport County on 54′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–45–32
28. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 53' York · On: Jack Hunt · Off: Joseph Rabole Felix
29. 61′We said York at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 22–49–29
30. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' York win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
31. 69′We said York at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 18–57–24
32. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' York · On: Frankie Maguire · Off: Ollie Pearce
33. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' York · On: Arthur Read · Off: Alex Hunt
34. 73′13 shots for Newport County, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 16–63–21
35. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' York · On: Alex Newby · Off: Joey Grey
36. 75′We said York at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–66–19
37. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Newport County · On: Gerard Garner · Off: Tanatswa Nyakuhwa
38. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Newport County · On: Kieron Thomas Evans · Off: Yahya Bamba
39. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' York win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
40. 80′We said York at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 11–75–14
41. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Harrison Biggins · Newport County
42. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' York · On: Ashley Palmer · Off: Ryan Fallowfield
43. 84′We said York at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–84–9
44. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Kion Etete · Newport County
45. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' York win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
46. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Newport County · On: Michael Adu-Poku · Off: Shaquille Gwengwe
47. 91′We said York at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
48. 93′17 shots for Newport County, 11 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 2–95–3
49. FTFULL TIME Newport County 1–1 York
50. FTNewport County 1–1 York · York win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.