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Newport County v Colchester

Newport County

1–0Full time

Colchester

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · Rodney Parade

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Newport County 1–0 Colchester COLCHESTER WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Colchester win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.671

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.626

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Colchester win at 40%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Colchester 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 33–27–40
2′KICK-OFF Newport County v Colchester
9′SUBSTITUTION · 9' Newport County · On: Yahya Bamba · Off: Christian Doidge
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Colchester win 33%)
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Jay Williams · Colchester
45′HALF-TIME Newport County 0–0 Colchester
45′SECOND HALF Newport County 0–0 Colchester
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Beryly Lubala · Colchester
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Colchester · On: Robert Donald Hunt · Off: Samuel Kuffour Jr.
62′SUBSTITUTION · 9' Newport County · On: Yahya Bamba · Off: Christian Doidge
62′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Jay Williams · Colchester
62′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Beryly Lubala · Colchester
62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Colchester · On: Robert Donald Hunt · Off: Samuel Kuffour Jr.
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Colchester · On: ronnie harvey · Off: Beryly Lubala
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Colchester · On: Bradley ihionvein · Off: Oscar thorn
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Newport County · On: Tanatswa Nyakuhwa · Off: Michael Adu-Poku
70′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Newport County · On: Gerard Garner · Off: Shaquille Gwengwe
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Bradley ihionvein · Colchester
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Newport County 1–0 Colchester
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Newport County 1–0 Colchester · Tanatswa Nyakuhwa
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Colchester · On: Kien Connelly · Off: Paul Digby
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Newport County · On: Matthew Smith · Off: Harrison Biggins
FTFULL TIME Newport County 1–0 Colchester
FTNewport County 1–0 Colchester · Colchester win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Newport County win34%

Draw27%

Colchester win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Rodney Parade

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Newport County

4-2-3-1

1 J. Wright

22 C. Norman

5 L. Jenkins

4 K. Cameron

16 M. Jacob

24 M. Dibley-Dias

6 C. Brennan

23 M. Adu Poku

10 H. Biggins

9 S. Gwengwe

27 C. Doidge

Coach · Hayden Mullins

Substitutes

33 · S. MacDonald

18 · A. Lewis

34 · D. Sassi

8 · M. Smith

19 · G. Garner

20 · Y. Bamba

21 · T. Nyakuhwa

Colchester

4-2-3-1

22 T. Lo-Tutala

44 S. Kuffour

5 J. Tucker

6 P. Digby

3 E. Iandolo

26 J. Williams

10 J. Payne

12 M. Sesay

7 H. Anderson

15 B. Lubala

27 O. Thorn

Coach · Danny Cowley

Substitutes

31 · O. Roberts

2 · R. Hunt

24 · F. Terry

47 · R. Harvey

9 · B. Ihionvien

11 · L. Chiwome

39 · K. Connolly

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Newport County

4-2-3-1

1 J. Wright

22 C. Norman

5 L. Jenkins

4 K. Cameron

16 M. Jacob

24 M. Dibley-Dias

6 C. Brennan

23 M. Adu Poku

10 H. Biggins

9 S. Gwengwe

27 C. Doidge

Coach · Hayden Mullins

Substitutes

33 · S. MacDonald

18 · A. Lewis

34 · D. Sassi

8 · M. Smith

19 · G. Garner

20 · Y. Bamba

21 · T. Nyakuhwa

Colchester

4-2-3-1

22 T. Lo-Tutala

44 S. Kuffour

5 J. Tucker

6 P. Digby

3 E. Iandolo

26 J. Williams

10 J. Payne

12 M. Sesay

7 H. Anderson

15 B. Lubala

27 O. Thorn

Coach · Danny Cowley

Substitutes

31 · O. Roberts

2 · R. Hunt

24 · F. Terry

47 · R. Harvey

9 · B. Ihionvien

11 · L. Chiwome

39 · K. Connolly

Our number · colchester winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make Colchester a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newport County win	34%	36%	−2
Draw	27%	27%	0
Colchester win	40%	37%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	46%	52%	−5
Both teams to score	51%	57%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−6
Newport County or draw	60%	63%	−2
Newport County clean sheet	27%	–	–
Colchester clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 10.5 7.0 3.2 1 9.4 12.7 8.3 3.7 2 5.7 7.5 5.0 2.2 3 2.3 3.1 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newport County down, Colchester across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,887 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newport County at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Colchester away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Newport County, 1.33 for Colchester. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NEW 1–2 COL · COL 4–1 NEW · NEW 0–2 COL · COL 0–0 NEW

Form · last six in League Two

NEWPORT COUNTY

LLDDWD1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

COLCHESTER

WLLDDD1–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	9	+3	16
2	Barnet	7	+7	15
3	Crewe	9	+4	15
4	Cheltenham	9	+2	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	0	15
6	York	8	+6	14
7	Walsall	8	+6	14
8	Chesterfield	9	+3	14
9	Grimsby	9	+3	13
10	Gillingham	9	+2	13
11	Rochdale	9	−1	13
12	Tranmere	9	0	11
13	Swindon Town	9	−4	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	−5	11
15	Newport County	9	0	10
16	Accrington ST	9	−1	10
17	Rotherham	9	−1	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	−1	10
19	Colchester	8	−2	10
20	Exeter City	9	−1	9
21	Oldham	8	−4	7
22	Northampton	7	−3	6
23	Port Vale	7	−6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	−7	4