Newport County v Chesterfield prediction · League Two

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Newport CountyDrawChesterfield

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Chesterfield 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chesterfield are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Newport County 30%, draw 25%, Chesterfield 45%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Newport County v ChesterfieldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Newport County win30%

Draw25%

Chesterfield win45%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

VenueRodney Parade

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newport County

Chesterfield

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Chesterfield	12	+2	16
14	Newport County	13	0	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chesterfield winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Chesterfield a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Newport County v Chesterfield~~1.23 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 26 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 16~~14 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newport County win	30%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Chesterfield win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Newport County or draw	55%	–	–
Newport County clean sheet	22%	–	–
Chesterfield clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.5 9.5 7.4 3.9 1 7.5 11.8 9.0 4.7 2 4.7 7.2 5.5 2.9 3 3.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newport County down, Chesterfield across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,923 League Two matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newport County at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chesterfield away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Newport County, 1.55 for Chesterfield. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NEW 2–1 CHE · CHE 4–1 NEW · CHE 2–1 NEW · NEW 0–3 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 26 Sept

NEWPORT COUNTY

WDWDDL2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

CHESTERFIELD

LWDLDW1–2 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	10	+8	21
3	Crewe	12	+4	21
4	Cheltenham	13	0	21
5	Walsall	11	+9	19
6	York	11	+6	17
7	Gillingham	12	+3	17
8	Shrewsbury	12	−4	17
9	Chesterfield	12	+2	16
10	Exeter City	12	+2	16
11	Swindon Town	13	−3	16
12	Bristol Rovers	13	−4	16
13	Accrington ST	12	+1	15
14	Newport County	13	0	15
15	Tranmere	12	0	15
16	Rochdale	12	−2	15
17	Grimsby	12	0	14
18	Fleetwood Town	12	−1	14
19	Northampton	11	0	13
20	Port Vale	10	−4	12
21	Colchester	12	−5	12
22	Oldham	11	−4	11
23	Rotherham	12	−6	11
24	Crawley Town	10	−9	5