Grimsby v York prediction · League Two

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GrimsbyDrawYork

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Grimsby 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Grimsby are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Grimsby 42%, draw 25%, York 33%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Grimsby v YorkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Grimsby win42%

Draw25%

York win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 14

VenueBlundell Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grimsby

York

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	York	12	+8	20
11	Grimsby	13	+3	17

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Mamdani loves Arsenal. He should challenge them to cut ties with the UAE over Sudan | Sasha Lezhnev and John PrendergastThe Guardian · 23 Oct 15:30 · York

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · grimsby winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Grimsby a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Grimsby v York~~1.51 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 20~~11 v 5

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grimsby win	42%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
York win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Grimsby or draw	67%	–	–
Grimsby clean sheet	28%	–	–
York clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.4 7.7 5.1 2.2 1 9.0 11.9 7.6 3.3 2 6.9 8.8 5.7 2.5 3 3.5 4.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grimsby down, York across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,934 League Two matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Grimsby at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). York away: 1.00 scored, 1.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Grimsby, 1.30 for York. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 19 Sept

GRIMSBY

LLLLDW1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 4–1

YORK

LWDDDW0–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	11	+8	22
3	Cheltenham	13	0	21
4	Crewe	13	0	21
5	York	12	+8	20
6	Walsall	11	+9	19
7	Chesterfield	13	+6	19
8	Exeter City	13	+3	19
9	Accrington ST	13	+6	18
10	Shrewsbury	13	−4	18
11	Grimsby	13	+3	17
12	Gillingham	13	0	17
13	Tranmere	13	0	16
14	Swindon Town	13	−3	16
15	Bristol Rovers	13	−4	16
16	Newport County	13	0	15
17	Rochdale	13	−7	15
18	Fleetwood Town	13	−2	14
19	Northampton	11	0	13
20	Oldham	12	−4	12
21	Colchester	12	−5	12
22	Rotherham	13	−6	12
23	Port Vale	11	−6	12
24	Crawley Town	11	−9	6