Grimsby v Northampton prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Grimsby 0–2 Northampton GRIMSBY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Grimsby win~~44%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.805

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.974

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Grimsby win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Grimsby 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
1′KICK-OFF Grimsby v Northampton
8′Little has changed for our model: Grimsby 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–27
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Douglas Tharme · Grimsby
32′Northampton have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 38–37–25
34′We said Grimsby at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–25–63
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 12–25–63
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Grimsby 0–1 Northampton
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Grimsby win: 44% at kick-off, 12% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Northampton win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Grimsby win 12%)
35′34′: M. Warhurst on the scoresheet for Northampton, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–63
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Charles Vernam · Grimsby
45′HALF-TIME Grimsby 0–1 Northampton
46′We said Grimsby at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
46′SECOND HALF Grimsby 0–1 Northampton
50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Grimsby · On: Joe Foulkes · Off: Douglas Tharme Corrected
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' josh powell · Northampton
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Northampton · On: Elliott List · Off: Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh
59′Northampton ahead on 58′ through Jon Guthrie. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Grimsby 0–2 Northampton · Jon Guthrie
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Grimsby win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
61′Northampton ahead on 58′ through Jon Guthrie. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
61′We said Grimsby at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
63′Grimsby are down to ten from 61′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 1–4–95
63′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Edon Pruti · Grimsby
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Grimsby · On: Finn Cartwright · Off: Charles Vernam
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Jamie Walker · Grimsby
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Jon Guthrie · Northampton
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' David John Artell · Grimsby
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Grimsby · On: Andy Cook · Off: Iwan Morgan
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Grimsby · On: Sonny Finch · Off: Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Grimsby · On: Cian Doyle · Off: Jamie Walker
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Northampton · On: Sam Hoskins · Off: M. Warhurst
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Northampton · On: James Maxwell · Off: josh powell
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Northampton · On: Max Dyche · Off: Janoi Donacien
FTFULL TIME Grimsby 0–2 Northampton
FTGrimsby 0–2 Northampton · Grimsby win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Grimsby are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Grimsby 44%, draw 29%, Northampton 27%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Grimsby v NorthamptonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Grimsby win44%

Draw29%

Northampton win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueBlundell Park

Line-ups

Grimsby

4-1-4-1

Northampton

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grimsby

Northampton

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Grimsby	10	+2	13
23	Northampton	8	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Grimsby

4-1-4-1

31 C. Pym

5 H. Rodgers

2 M. Kacurri

24 D. Tharme

26 E. Pruti

15 G. D. Turi

14 J. Amaluzor

4 K. Green

7 J. Walker

30 C. Vernam

9 I. Morgan

Coach · David Artell

Substitutes

1 · H. Cartwright

12 · J. Foulkes

28 · F. Cartwright

11 · R. Reynolds

8 · C. Doyle

39 · A. Cook

10 · S. Finch

Northampton

Formation not confirmed

1 Z. Jeacock

44 J. Donacien

6 E. Moore

5 J. Guthrie

22 J. Powell

16 J. Wormleighton

24 C. Lemonheigh-Evans

8 L. Evans

4 J. O'Brien Whitmarsh

19 O. Dale

9 M. Warhurst

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · J. Dadge

3 · J. Maxwell

35 · M. Dyche

10 · E. List

14 · T. Fornah

26 · S. Chambers

7 · S. Hoskins

Our number · grimsby winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market54%

Us44%

~~Market~~54%

We make Grimsby a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Grimsby v Northampton~~1.29 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 7~~11 v 23

~~The market · Grimsby win~~54% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Grimsby win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grimsby win	44%	54%	−10
Draw	29%	25%	+4
Northampton win	27%	21%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	39%	51%	−12
Both teams to score	44%	53%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	65%	74%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	19%	30%	−11
Grimsby or draw	73%	79%	−6
Grimsby clean sheet	39%	–	–
Northampton clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 11.2 10.1 4.8 1 13.6 12.8 6.0 2 8.8 8.2 3.9 3 3.9 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grimsby down, Northampton across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Grimsby at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Northampton away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Grimsby, 0.95 for Northampton. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NOR 1–2 GRI · GRI 1–1 NOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 29 Aug

GRIMSBY

DWWLLL2–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

NORTHAMPTON

DDWLLD1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	10	+5	19
2	Barnet	8	+9	18
3	Crewe	10	+5	18
4	Gillingham	10	+5	16
5	York	9	+6	15
6	Walsall	9	+6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	+3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	−2	15
10	Rochdale	10	−1	14
11	Grimsby	10	+2	13
12	Newport County	10	+1	13
13	Tranmere	10	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	−1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	−1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	−5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	−6	11
19	Colchester	9	−3	10
20	Rotherham	10	−4	10
21	Oldham	9	−4	8
22	Port Vale	8	−5	8
23	Northampton	8	−3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	−7	5