Gillingham v Port Vale prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Gillingham 1–1 Port Vale PORT VALE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Port Vale win~~38%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.749

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.764

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Port Vale win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Port Vale 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 32–30–38
1′KICK-OFF Gillingham v Port Vale
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Port Vale win 35%)
42′Ronan Chapman Hale scores for Gillingham on 42′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–22–8
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Gillingham 1–0 Port Vale · Ronan Chapman Hale (penalty)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Port Vale win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Gillingham win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 42%)
43′We said Port Vale at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 70–22–8
43′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 70–22–8
45′HALF-TIME Gillingham 1–0 Port Vale
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Port Vale · On: Kyle Dempsey · Off: George Cardinal Joseph·Hall
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Port Vale · On: Oliver Lynch · Off: Onel Hernández
46′SECOND HALF Gillingham 1–0 Port Vale
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Port Vale · On: Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales · Off: Max Watters
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Jasper·Moon · Port Vale
59′We said Port Vale at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
66′We said Port Vale at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 18–61–21
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Gillingham 1–1 Port Vale
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Port Vale win: 38% at kick-off, 21% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Gillingham win 79%)
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Port Vale · On: Jaheim·Headley · Off: Kyle John
68′66′: Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales on the scoresheet for Port Vale, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 17–63–20
69′We said Port Vale at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 17–64–19
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gillingham · On: Harry Waldock · Off: Ethan·Coleman
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Gillingham · On: Garath McCleary · Off: Ronan Chapman Hale
76′We said Port Vale at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–73–14
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Conor McManus · Gillingham
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Port Vale win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gillingham · On: Michael Luxton · Off: Conor McManus
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gillingham · On: S. Kendall · Off: Tom Eaves
87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Jack Daley · Gillingham
90′1–1 at the end. Our 38% on Port Vale misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Port Vale · On: Rhys Walters · Off: Ben Garrity
FTFULL TIME Gillingham 1–1 Port Vale
FTGillingham 1–1 Port Vale · Port Vale win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Port Vale are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gillingham 32%, draw 29%, Port Vale 38%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Gillingham v Port ValeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Gillingham win32%

Draw29%

Port Vale win38%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePriestfield Stadium

Line-ups

Gillingham

3-4-3

Port Vale

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gillingham

Port Vale

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Gillingham	11	+3	16
21	Port Vale	9	−4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gillingham

3-4-3

1 O. Wright

5 A. Smith

19 O. Beckles

20 J. Daley

16 J. Brophy

6 E. Coleman

8 A. Little

3 Conor McManus

22 N. Freeman

10 Ronan Hale

39 T. Eaves

Coach · G. Ainsworth

Substitutes

30 · S. Booth

40 · R. Luthra

12 · G. McCleary

24 · H. Waldock

26 · L. Dobbs

18 · S. Kendall

27 · M. Luxton

Port Vale

3-5-2

20 M. Maroši

25 C. Humphreys

4 J. Moon

5 C. Hall

6 J. Lawrence-Gabriel

8 B. Garrity

7 G. Byers

33 G. Hall

2 K. John

36 M. Watters

11 O. Hernández

Coach · J. Brady

Substitutes

10 · K. Dempsey

3 · J. Headley

22 · L. Montsma

1 · J. Smith

38 · R. Walters

14 · O. Lynch

24 · K. Figueroa

Our number · port vale winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

38% The market42%

Us38%

~~Market~~42%

We make Port Vale a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gillingham v Port Vale~~1.03 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 1 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 11~~6 v 21

~~The market · Port Vale win~~42% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Port Vale win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gillingham win	32%	29%	+3
Draw	29%	29%	0
Port Vale win	38%	42%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Both teams to score	44%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	64%	68%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	18%	25%	−7
Gillingham or draw	62%	58%	+4
Gillingham clean sheet	32%	–	–
Port Vale clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.7 12.9 7.5 2.9 1 11.5 13.3 7.5 2.9 2 6.0 6.8 3.9 3 2.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gillingham down, Port Vale across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League Two matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gillingham at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Port Vale away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Gillingham, 1.15 for Port Vale. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 20 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~POR 0–1 GIL · GIL 1–0 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 1 Sept

GILLINGHAM

WWLDWL2–0 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 1–3

PORT VALE

LLWLWW1–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	11	+6	22
2	Barnet	9	+10	21
3	Crewe	11	+6	21
4	York	10	+6	16
5	Walsall	10	+6	16
6	Gillingham	11	+3	16
7	Chesterfield	11	+2	15
8	Cheltenham	11	−3	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	−3	15
10	Accrington ST	11	+1	14
11	Newport County	11	+1	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	+1	14
13	Rochdale	11	−2	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	−5	14
15	Grimsby	11	0	13
16	Exeter City	11	0	13
17	Tranmere	11	−1	12
18	Swindon Town	11	−5	12
19	Oldham	10	−1	11
20	Colchester	10	−3	11
21	Port Vale	9	−4	11
22	Northampton	9	−1	10
23	Rotherham	11	−6	10
24	Crawley Town	9	−8	5