Gillingham v Grimsby prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Gillingham 1–4 Grimsby GRIMSBY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Grimsby win~~39%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.562

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.465

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Grimsby win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Grimsby 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 34–27–39
1′KICK-OFF Gillingham v Grimsby
7′We said Grimsby at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 0–1 · 14–20–66
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Gillingham 0–1 Grimsby
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
8′A goal for Grimsby on 7′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–20–66
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Garath McCleary · Gillingham
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 10–21–69
34′We said Grimsby at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
38′37′: Ronan Chapman Hale on the scoresheet for Gillingham. 0–1 · 9–21–70
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Gillingham 1–1 Grimsby · Ronan Chapman Hale
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, 33% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Grimsby win 70%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Géza Dávid Turi · Grimsby
45′HALF-TIME Gillingham 1–1 Grimsby
45′SECOND HALF Gillingham 1–1 Grimsby
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor · Grimsby
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Armani Little · Gillingham
55′Iwan Morgan scores for Grimsby on 54′. 1–1 · 25–47–28
56′We said Grimsby at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 25–48–27
56′We said Grimsby at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
56′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 5–20–75
56′⚽ GOAL · 54' Gillingham 1–2 Grimsby · Iwan Morgan (penalty)
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, 75% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Grimsby win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 48%)
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Grimsby · On: Sonny Finch · Off: Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor
64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Maldini Kacurri · Grimsby
65′Géza Dávid Turi scores for Grimsby on 64′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
65′Géza Dávid Turi scores for Grimsby on 63′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Gillingham 1–3 Grimsby · Géza Dávid Turi
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, 97% now
66′We said Grimsby at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 1–3 · 0–3–97
66′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–3–97
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Gillingham · On: Tom Eaves · Off: Garath McCleary
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Gillingham · On: S. Kendall · Off: Nick Freeman
72′We said Grimsby at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
72′70′: Sonny Finch on the scoresheet for Grimsby, making it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
72′5 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Gillingham 1–4 Grimsby
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Grimsby win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Grimsby · On: Mark Shelton · Off: Géza Dávid Turi
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Grimsby · On: Josh andrews · Off: Iwan Morgan
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Gillingham · On: Ethan·Coleman · Off: Armani Little
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Grimsby · On: Cian Doyle · Off: Kieran Green
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Grimsby · On: Finn Cartwright · Off: Jamie Walker
91′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Sonny Finch · Grimsby
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Ethan·Coleman · Gillingham
FTFULL TIME Gillingham 1–4 Grimsby
FTGillingham 1–4 Grimsby · Grimsby win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Grimsby are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gillingham 34%, draw 27%, Grimsby 39%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Gillingham v GrimsbyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Gillingham win34%

Draw27%

Grimsby win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenuePriestfield Stadium

Line-ups

Gillingham

3-4-3

Grimsby

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gillingham

Grimsby

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League Two

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Gillingham	12	+3	17
17	Grimsby	12	0	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gillingham

3-4-3

1 O. Wright

5 A. Smith

19 O. Beckles

20 J. Daley

8 A. Little

14 R. McKenzie

16 J. Brophy

3 Conor McManus

12 G. McCleary

10 Ronan Hale

22 N. Freeman

Coach · G. Ainsworth

Substitutes

6 · E. Coleman

23 · B. Dack

39 · T. Eaves

40 · R. Luthra

24 · H. Waldock

26 · L. Dobbs

18 · S. Kendall

Grimsby

4-1-4-1

31 C. Pym

5 H. Rodgers

2 M. Kacurri

12 J. Foulkes

9 Iwan Morgan

15 G. Turi

14 J. Amaluzor

4 K. Green

7 J. Walker

30 C. Vernam

39 A. Cook

Coach · D. Artell

Substitutes

29 · M. Shelton

10 · S. Finch

8 · Cian Doyle

1 · H. Cartwright

19 · J. Andrews

11 · Ryley Reynolds

28 · F. Cartwright

Our number · grimsby winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market44%

Us39%

~~Market~~44%

We make Grimsby a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gillingham v Grimsby~~1.22 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 14~~7 v 17

~~The market · Grimsby win~~44% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Grimsby win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gillingham win	34%	28%	+6
Draw	27%	27%	0
Grimsby win	39%	44%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	47%	53%	−6
Both teams to score	51%	57%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	32%	−7
Gillingham or draw	61%	56%	+5
Gillingham clean sheet	27%	–	–
Grimsby clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 10.3 6.9 3.1 1 9.5 12.7 8.2 3.7 2 5.9 7.6 5.0 2.2 3 2.4 3.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gillingham down, Grimsby across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,923 League Two matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gillingham at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Grimsby away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Gillingham, 1.32 for Grimsby. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GIL 1–4 GRI · GRI 1–0 GIL · GRI 1–1 GIL · GIL 0–1 GRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 19 Sept

GILLINGHAM

WLDWLD3–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

GRIMSBY

WLLLLD2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	10	+8	21
3	Crewe	12	+4	21
4	Walsall	11	+9	19
5	Cheltenham	12	−1	18
6	York	11	+6	17
7	Gillingham	12	+3	17
8	Shrewsbury	12	−4	17
9	Chesterfield	12	+2	16
10	Exeter City	12	+2	16
11	Accrington ST	12	+1	15
12	Newport County	12	+1	15
13	Tranmere	12	0	15
14	Rochdale	12	−2	15
15	Swindon Town	12	−3	15
16	Bristol Rovers	12	−4	15
17	Grimsby	12	0	14
18	Fleetwood Town	12	−1	14
19	Colchester	11	−3	12
20	Port Vale	10	−4	12
21	Oldham	11	−4	11
22	Rotherham	12	−6	11
23	Northampton	10	−2	10
24	Crawley Town	10	−9	5