Home › Football › League Two › Fleetwood Town v Walsall

Fleetwood Town v Walsall

Fleetwood Town

1–1Full time

Walsall

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · Highbury Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Fleetwood Town 1–1 Walsall FLEETWOOD TOWN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Fleetwood Town win~~38%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.787

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.791

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fleetwood Town win at 38%.
2′Much as we predicted: Fleetwood Town was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
2′KICK-OFF Fleetwood Town v Walsall
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Fleetwood Town win 32%)
45′SECOND HALF Fleetwood Town 0–0 Walsall
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Sven Sprangler · Walsall
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' R. Bennett · Fleetwood Town
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Fleetwood Town 1–0 Walsall
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Fleetwood Town 1–0 Walsall · Ronan Coughlan
62′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Sven Sprangler · Walsall
62′🟨 YELLOW · 54' R. Bennett · Fleetwood Town
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Fleetwood Town 1–0 Walsall · Ronan Coughlan (assist Lewis McCann)
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Walsall · On: Courtney Alphonso Clarke · Off: Ryan Leak
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Walsall · On: Charlie Crew · Off: Sven Sprangler
73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Harrison Neal · Fleetwood Town
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Lewis McCann · Fleetwood Town
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Lewis McCann · Fleetwood Town
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fleetwood Town · On: Aaron Loupalo-Bi · Off: Ronan Coughlan
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Mark Helm · Fleetwood Town
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Walsall · On: Elicha Ahui · Off: Declan Skura
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Walsall · On: Taione Richard Evumena Sodje · Off: Lewis Simper
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Fleetwood Town 1–1 Walsall · Ronan Coughlan
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' Fleetwood Town 1–1 Walsall · Aaron Pressley
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Fleetwood Town · On: Will davies · Off: Ched Evans
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Isaac Moore · Walsall
FTFULL TIME Fleetwood Town 1–1 Walsall
FTFleetwood Town 1–1 Walsall · Fleetwood Town win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fleetwood Town win38%

Draw28%

Walsall win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Highbury Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Fleetwood Town

3-1-4-2

1 J. Lynch

26 S. Rooney

6 R. Bennett

5 F. Potter

4 H. Neal

14 L. McCann

10 M. Helm

15 A. Murphy

24 J. Batty

17 C. Evans

19 R. Coughlan

Coach · Matt Lawlor

Substitutes

22 · J. Pradic

36 · J. Dempsey

16 · C. Haughey

29 · R. Cirino

28 · J. Robertson

9 · W. Davies

20 · A. Loupalo-Bi

Walsall

4-2-3-1

1 J. Ward

25 D. Skura

4 J. Connolly

26 R. Leak

3 M. Hancock

15 I. Moore

6 S. Sprangler

10 L. Simper

9 A. Dallas

11 R. Smith

19 A. Pressley

Coach · Lee Grant

Substitutes

31 · T. Wooster

22 · E. Ahui

29 · J. Furlong

8 · C. Crew

17 · C. Clarke

37 · A. Adomah

7 · T. Sodje

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Fleetwood Town

3-1-4-2

1 J. Lynch

26 S. Rooney

6 R. Bennett

5 F. Potter

4 H. Neal

14 L. McCann

10 M. Helm

15 A. Murphy

24 J. Batty

17 C. Evans

19 R. Coughlan

Coach · Matt Lawlor

Substitutes

22 · J. Pradic

36 · J. Dempsey

16 · C. Haughey

29 · R. Cirino

28 · J. Robertson

9 · W. Davies

20 · A. Loupalo-Bi

Walsall

4-2-3-1

1 J. Ward

25 D. Skura

4 J. Connolly

26 R. Leak

3 M. Hancock

15 I. Moore

6 S. Sprangler

10 L. Simper

9 A. Dallas

11 R. Smith

19 A. Pressley

Coach · Lee Grant

Substitutes

31 · T. Wooster

22 · E. Ahui

29 · J. Furlong

8 · C. Crew

17 · C. Clarke

37 · A. Adomah

7 · T. Sodje

Our number · fleetwood town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

38% The market40%

Us38%

~~Market~~40%

We make Fleetwood Town a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fleetwood town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fleetwood Town win	38%	40%	−1
Draw	28%	28%	0
Walsall win	34%	33%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	52%	−8
Both teams to score	49%	57%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	31%	−8
Fleetwood Town or draw	66%	67%	−1
Fleetwood Town clean sheet	31%	–	–
Walsall clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.1 10.1 6.0 2.4 1 11.0 12.9 7.5 2.9 2 7.0 8.1 4.7 3 3.0 3.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fleetwood Town down, Walsall across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,887 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fleetwood Town at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Walsall away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Fleetwood Town, 1.17 for Walsall. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~WAL 0–1 FLE · FLE 1–1 WAL · FLE 2–0 WAL · WAL 2–6 FLE

Form · last six in League Two

FLEETWOOD TOWN

DWDLLL1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–1

WALSALL

WDDDWD3–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	9	+3	16
2	Barnet	7	+7	15
3	Crewe	9	+4	15
4	Cheltenham	9	+2	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	0	15
6	York	8	+6	14
7	Walsall	8	+6	14
8	Chesterfield	9	+3	14
9	Grimsby	9	+3	13
10	Gillingham	9	+2	13
11	Rochdale	9	−1	13
12	Tranmere	9	0	11
13	Swindon Town	9	−4	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	−5	11
15	Newport County	9	0	10
16	Accrington ST	9	−1	10
17	Rotherham	9	−1	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	−1	10
19	Colchester	8	−2	10
20	Exeter City	9	−1	9
21	Oldham	8	−4	7
22	Northampton	7	−3	6
23	Port Vale	7	−6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	−7	4