Fleetwood Town v Rotherham prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Fleetwood Town 2–0 Rotherham FLEETWOOD TOWN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fleetwood Town win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.488

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.505

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fleetwood Town win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fleetwood Town was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Fleetwood Town v Rotherham
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' brandon cover · Rotherham
43′Fleetwood Town have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 35–39–26
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Fleetwood Town win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Fleetwood Town 0–0 Rotherham
45′SECOND HALF Fleetwood Town 0–0 Rotherham
47′We published Fleetwood Town at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–6
47′Shaun Rooney scores for Fleetwood Town on 46′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Fleetwood Town win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Fleetwood Town 1–0 Rotherham
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Fleetwood Town win: 43% at kick-off, 75% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Fleetwood Town win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Rotherham · On: Aaron Nemane · Off: Sonny Aljofree
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Rotherham · On: kian spence · Off: Josh Austerfield
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Rotherham · On: K. Lolas · Off: Tom Bradshaw
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Rotherham · On: Jayce Fitzgerald · Off: brandon cover
63′We published Fleetwood Town at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' H. Douglas · Rotherham
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Fleetwood Town · On: Will davies · Off: Ched Evans
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Mark Helm · Fleetwood Town
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Ronan Coughlan · Fleetwood Town
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Fleetwood Town win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
73′We published Fleetwood Town at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Fleetwood Town · On: Crispin McLean · Off: Adam Murphy
80′We published Fleetwood Town at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′We published Fleetwood Town at 43%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Fleetwood Town 2–0 Rotherham
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Fleetwood Town win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
81′81′: Ronan Coughlan on the scoresheet for Fleetwood Town, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
82′80′: Ronan Coughlan on the scoresheet for Fleetwood Town, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′We published Fleetwood Town at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Fleetwood Town · On: Conor Haughey · Off: Mark Helm
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Fleetwood Town · On: R. Cirino · Off: Ronan Coughlan
90′Full time, 2–0. We called Fleetwood Town at 43% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' K. Lolas · Rotherham
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Jay Lynch · Fleetwood Town
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Dominic Iorfa · Rotherham
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Lewis McCann · Fleetwood Town
FTFULL TIME Fleetwood Town 2–0 Rotherham
FTFleetwood Town 2–0 Rotherham · Fleetwood Town win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fleetwood Town are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fleetwood Town 43%, draw 26%, Rotherham 30%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Fleetwood Town v RotherhamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fleetwood Town win43%

Draw26%

Rotherham win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueHighbury Stadium

Line-ups

Fleetwood Town

3-1-4-2

Rotherham

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fleetwood Town

Rotherham

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Fleetwood Town	10	−1	11
20	Rotherham	10	−4	10

In the news

from the pressAll ›

5 Alex Bruce replacements Rotherham United must have one eye onFootball League World · 15 Oct 07:15 · Rotherham

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fleetwood Town

3-1-4-2

1 J. Lynch

26 S. Rooney

6 R. Bennett

5 F. Potter

4 H. Neal

14 L. McCann

15 A. Murphy

10 M. Helm

24 J. Batty

17 C. Evans

19 R. Coughlan

Coach · Matt Lawlor

Substitutes

22 · J. Pradic

16 · C. Haughey

29 · R. Cirino

28 · J. Robertson

27 · C. McLean

9 · W. Davies

20 · A. Loupalo-Bi

Rotherham

3-4-1-2

13 J. Eyestone

27 D. Iorfa

14 S. Aljofree

26 H. Douglas

12 D. Hall

28 B. Cover

22 J. Jellis

24 J. Buyabu

4 J. Austerfield

9 T. Bradshaw

10 P. Mullin

Coach · Alex Bruce

Substitutes

1 · T. Cann

5 · K. Ngwenya

2 · J. Rafferty

8 · K. Spence

15 · J. Fitzgerald

23 · A. Nemane

20 · K. Lolos

Our number · fleetwood town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Fleetwood Town a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fleetwood Town v Rotherham~~1.42 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~16 v 20

~~The market · Fleetwood Town win~~42% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fleetwood Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fleetwood Town win	43%	42%	+1
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Rotherham win	30%	31%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
Fleetwood Town or draw	70%	69%	+1
Fleetwood Town clean sheet	32%	–	–
Rotherham clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.0 8.8 5.1 1 10.8 12.5 7.1 2.7 2 7.7 8.7 5.0 3 3.7 4.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fleetwood Town down, Rotherham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fleetwood Town at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Rotherham away: 0.80 scored, 1.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Fleetwood Town, 1.15 for Rotherham. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FLE 2–1 ROT · FLE 1–0 ROT · ROT 2–4 FLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept

FLEETWOOD TOWN

WDLLLD2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

ROTHERHAM

LDWDLL0–1 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	10	+5	19
2	Barnet	8	+9	18
3	Crewe	10	+5	18
4	Gillingham	10	+5	16
5	York	9	+6	15
6	Walsall	9	+6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	+3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	−2	15
10	Rochdale	10	−1	14
11	Grimsby	10	+2	13
12	Newport County	10	+1	13
13	Tranmere	10	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	−1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	−1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	−5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	−6	11
19	Colchester	9	−3	10
20	Rotherham	10	−4	10
21	Oldham	9	−4	8
22	Port Vale	8	−5	8
23	Northampton	8	−3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	−7	5