Exeter City v Fleetwood Town prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Exeter City 2–1 Fleetwood Town EXETER CITY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Exeter City win~~44%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.473

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.549

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Exeter City win at 44%.
2′Much as we predicted: Exeter City was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–25
2′KICK-OFF Exeter City v Fleetwood Town
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Exeter City win 38%)
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Taylor Perry · Exeter City
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Exeter City win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Exeter City 0–0 Fleetwood Town
45′SECOND HALF Exeter City 0–0 Fleetwood Town
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Exeter City · On: Reece Cole · Off: Taylor Perry
46′We said Exeter City at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–47–21
53′We said Exeter City at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
58′We published Exeter City at 44%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–2
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Exeter City 1–0 Fleetwood Town
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Exeter City win: 44% at kick-off, 82% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Exeter City win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 56%)
59′Exeter City ahead on 58′ through Charlie Cummins. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–2
59′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 83–15–2
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Jack Fitzwater · Exeter City
62′Ronan Coughlan scores for Fleetwood Town on 61′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 25–59–16
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Exeter City 1–1 Fleetwood Town · Ronan Coughlan
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Exeter City win: 44% at kick-off, 25% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Exeter City win 83%)
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Fleetwood Town · On: Danny Andrew · Off: Finley Potter
63′We said Exeter City at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Fleetwood Town · On: R. Cirino · Off: Ched Evans
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Exeter City win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Exeter City · On: Ethan Sutherland · Off: Anthony Scully
65′64′: L. Woodhouse on the scoresheet for Exeter City, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–2
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Exeter City 2–1 Fleetwood Town · L. Woodhouse
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Exeter City win: 44% at kick-off, 85% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Exeter City win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 62%)
66′We published Exeter City at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
66′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 85–13–2
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Exeter City win: 44% at kick-off, 85% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Fleetwood Town · On: Josh Robertson · Off: Crispin McLean
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Fleetwood Town · On: Aaron Loupalo-Bi · Off: Lewis McCann
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Exeter City · On: Sonny Cox · Off: Josh Gordon
76′We published Exeter City at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Exeter City · On: Liam Oakes · Off: Harry Kite
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Exeter City · On: Vincent Harper · Off: George Birch
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Exeter City win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
84′We published Exeter City at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Exeter City 2–1 Fleetwood Town
FTExeter City 2–1 Fleetwood Town · Exeter City win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Exeter City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Exeter City 44%, draw 31%, Fleetwood Town 26%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Exeter City v Fleetwood TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Exeter City win44%

Draw31%

Fleetwood Town win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueSt James Park

Line-ups

Exeter City

4-2-3-1

Fleetwood Town

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Exeter City

Fleetwood Town

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Exeter City	12	+2	16
18	Fleetwood Town	12	−1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Exeter City

4-2-3-1

1 J. Bycroft

2 L. Samuel

6 J. Taylor

5 J. Fitzwater

3 L. Woodhouse

14 H. Kite

16 C. Cummins

20 George Birch

8 T. Perry

25 A. Scully

10 J. Gordon

Coach · M. Taylor

Substitutes

12 · R. Cole

19 · S. Cox

24 · V. Harper

40 · E. James

18 · Liam Oakes

22 · Frankie Phillips

23 · Ethan Sutherland

Fleetwood Town

3-1-4-2

1 J. Lynch

26 S. Rooney

16 Conor Haughey

5 F. Potter

4 H. Neal

14 L. McCann

27 C. McLean

10 M. Helm

24 Jake Thomas Batty

17 C. Evans

19 R. Coughlan

Coach · M. Lawlor

Substitutes

29 · R. Cirino

3 · D. Andrew

9 · W. Davies

20 · A. Loupalo-Bi

15 · A. Murphy

22 · J. Pradic

28 · J. Robertson

Our number · exeter city winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Exeter City a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Exeter City v Fleetwood Town~~1.17 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~10 v 18

~~The market · Exeter City win~~40% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Exeter City win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Exeter City win	44%	40%	+4
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Fleetwood Town win	26%	31%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	32%	45%	−13
Both teams to score	38%	52%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	59%	69%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	14%	25%	−11
Exeter City or draw	74%	69%	+5
Exeter City clean sheet	45%	–	–
Fleetwood Town clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 14.2 11.0 4.6 1 15.8 12.9 5.3 2 9.4 7.5 3.1 3 3.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Exeter City down, Fleetwood Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,923 League Two matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Exeter City at home: 1.00 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Fleetwood Town away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Exeter City, 0.82 for Fleetwood Town. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~EXE 1–1 FLE · FLE 3–0 EXE · FLE 2–2 EXE · EXE 2–1 FLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 19 Sept

EXETER CITY

DLWWDW0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

FLEETWOOD TOWN

LLLDWL1–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	10	+8	21
3	Crewe	12	+4	21
4	Walsall	11	+9	19
5	Cheltenham	12	−1	18
6	York	11	+6	17
7	Gillingham	12	+3	17
8	Shrewsbury	12	−4	17
9	Chesterfield	12	+2	16
10	Exeter City	12	+2	16
11	Accrington ST	12	+1	15
12	Newport County	12	+1	15
13	Tranmere	12	0	15
14	Rochdale	12	−2	15
15	Swindon Town	12	−3	15
16	Bristol Rovers	12	−4	15
17	Grimsby	12	0	14
18	Fleetwood Town	12	−1	14
19	Colchester	11	−3	12
20	Port Vale	10	−4	12
21	Oldham	11	−4	11
22	Rotherham	12	−6	11
23	Northampton	10	−2	10
24	Crawley Town	10	−9	5