Exeter City v Crewe prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Exeter City 2–0 Crewe EXETER CITY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Exeter City win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.544

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.579

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Exeter City win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Exeter City was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–32–29
1′KICK-OFF Exeter City v Crewe
21′21′: Anthony Scully on the scoresheet for Exeter City. 0–0 · 36–37–27
21′We published Exeter City at 40%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–7
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Exeter City 1–0 Crewe · Anthony Scully (penalty)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Exeter City win: 40% at kick-off, 73% now
30′We published Exeter City at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
30′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Exeter City 1–0 Crewe
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Exeter City · On: Reece Cole · Off: Taylor Perry Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Exeter City 1–0 Crewe
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Crewe · On: Reece Hutchinson · Off: Kyle Ure
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Crewe · On: Charlie McNeill · Off: Joe White
53′We published Exeter City at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Exeter City win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Charlie McNeill · Crewe
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Exeter City · On: Harry Kite · Off: Taylor Perry
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Lee Bell · Crewe
67′We published Exeter City at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Exeter City · On: Josh Gordon · Off: Anthony Scully
77′We published Exeter City at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Exeter City win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Exeter City · On: Vincent Harper · Off: Sonny Cox
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Exeter City · On: Ethan Sutherland · Off: George Birch
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Crewe · On: Adrien thibaut · Off: Jordan Gibson
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Jack Fitzwater · Exeter City
84′We published Exeter City at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Matthew James Taylor · Exeter City
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Crewe · On: Calum·Agius · Off: Owen lunt
95′We published Exeter City at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
95′Reece Cole scores for Exeter City on 90′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Exeter City 2–0 Crewe
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Exeter City win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Exeter City 2–0 Crewe
FTExeter City 2–0 Crewe · Exeter City win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Exeter City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Exeter City 40%, draw 32%, Crewe 29%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Exeter City v CreweBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Exeter City win40%

Draw32%

Crewe win29%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSt James Park

Line-ups

Exeter City

4-2-3-1

Crewe

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Exeter City

Crewe

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Crewe	11	+6	21
16	Exeter City	11	0	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Exeter City

4-2-3-1

1 J. Bycroft

2 L. Samuel

6 J. Taylor

5 J. Fitzwater

3 L. Woodhouse

31 J. Doyle-Hayes

16 C. Cummins

20 George Birch

8 T. Perry

25 A. Scully

19 S. Cox

Coach · M. Taylor

Substitutes

23 · Ethan Sutherland

12 · R. Cole

10 · J. Gordon

24 · V. Harper

40 · E. James

14 · H. Kite

22 · Frankie Phillips

Crewe

4-2-3-1

1 T. Booth

2 L. Billington

6 L. Offord

12 J. Stephenson

4 Kyle Ure

19 O. Lunt

10 J. White

11 J. Tabiner

17 M. Holíček

14 J. Gibson

9 J. March

Coach · Lee Bell

Substitutes

3 · R. Hutchinson

30 · Stan Dancey

20 · Calum Agius

13 · I. Lawlor

23 · C. McNeill

32 · L. Moore

29 · A. Thibaut

Our number · exeter city winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Exeter City a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Exeter City v Crewe~~1.07 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 21~~16 v 3

~~The market · Exeter City win~~38% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Exeter City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Exeter City win	40%	38%	+2
Draw	32%	29%	+3
Crewe win	29%	33%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	30%	45%	−15
Both teams to score	37%	51%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	57%	69%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	13%	25%	−12
Exeter City or draw	71%	67%	+4
Exeter City clean sheet	43%	–	–
Crewe clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.4%

0123450 15.2 12.3 5.3 1 15.4 13.1 5.6 2 8.3 6.9 3.0 3 3.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Exeter City down, Crewe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League Two matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Exeter City at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Crewe away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Exeter City, 0.85 for Crewe. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 12 Sept

EXETER CITY

LDLWWD0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

CREWE

DDDWWW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	11	+6	22
2	Barnet	9	+10	21
3	Crewe	11	+6	21
4	York	10	+6	16
5	Walsall	10	+6	16
6	Gillingham	11	+3	16
7	Chesterfield	11	+2	15
8	Cheltenham	11	−3	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	−3	15
10	Accrington ST	11	+1	14
11	Newport County	11	+1	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	+1	14
13	Rochdale	11	−2	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	−5	14
15	Grimsby	11	0	13
16	Exeter City	11	0	13
17	Tranmere	11	−1	12
18	Swindon Town	11	−5	12
19	Oldham	10	−1	11
20	Colchester	10	−3	11
21	Port Vale	9	−4	11
22	Northampton	9	−1	10
23	Rotherham	11	−6	10
24	Crawley Town	9	−8	5