Crewe v Rochdale prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Crewe 3–2 Rochdale CREWE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Crewe win~~48%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.406

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.366

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Crewe win at 48%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Crewe 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
2′KICK-OFF Crewe v Rochdale
8′Little has changed for our model: Crewe 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
39′A goal for Crewe on 39′. 0–0 · 39–38–23
40′We said Crewe at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
40′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Crewe 1–0 Rochdale
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Crewe win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
45′We said Crewe at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Crewe 2–0 Rochdale
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Crewe win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
45′HALF-TIME Crewe 2–0 Rochdale
45′SECOND HALF Crewe 2–0 Rochdale
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Crewe · On: Conor Thomas · Off: Matúš Holíček
46′Jordan Gibson scores for Crewe on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Joe White · Crewe
55′We said Crewe at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Crewe 3–0 Rochdale
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Crewe win: 48% at kick-off, over 99% now
56′55′: Jordan Gibson on the scoresheet for Crewe, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
56′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Crewe · On: Calum·Agius · Off: Joe White
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Rochdale · On: Emmanuel Dieseruvwe · Off: Dajaune Brown
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Rochdale · On: Edward Francis · Off: Cian Hayes
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Rochdale · On: sam beckwith · Off: Charlie Tasker
65′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Crewe 3–1 Rochdale
66′Rochdale pull one back on 65′ through an own goal by Joel Tabiner. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Crewe · On: Stan Dancey · Off: Jordan Gibson
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Crewe · On: Reece Hutchinson · Off: Kyle Ure
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Crewe · On: Adrien thibaut · Off: Joel Tabiner
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Rochdale · On: Zain Silcott-Duberry · Off: Babajide Ezekiel Adeeko
91′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 97–3–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Crewe 3–2 Rochdale
92′Aden Flint scores for Rochdale on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
92′Rochdale have had 15 attempts to 10 and it is still 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
FTFULL TIME Crewe 3–2 Rochdale
FTCrewe 3–2 Rochdale · Crewe win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Crewe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Crewe 48%, draw 27%, Rochdale 25%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Crewe v RochdaleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Crewe win48%

Draw27%

Rochdale win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAlexandra Stadium

Line-ups

Crewe

4-2-3-1

Rochdale

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Crewe

Rochdale

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Crewe	10	+5	18
10	Rochdale	10	−1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Crewe

4-2-3-1

1 T. Booth

2 L. Billington

6 L. Offord

12 J. Stephenson

4 K. Ure

19 O. Lunt

10 J. White

11 J. Tabiner

17 M. Holicek

14 J. Gibson

9 J. March

Coach · Lee Bell

Substitutes

13 · I. Lawlor

3 · R. Hutchinson

30 · S. Dancey

8 · C. Thomas

23 · C. McNeill

20 · C. Agius

29 · A. Thibaut

Rochdale

4-2-3-1

20 S. Waller

13 T. Adebayo-Rowling

44 A. Flint

3 K. Wilson

2 C. Tasker

8 H. Gilmour

17 B. Adeeko

7 C. Hayes

21 K. Taylor

45 G. Middleton

39 D. Brown

Coach · Ian Watson

Substitutes

12 · J. Spaven

26 · S. Sherring

33 · S. Beckwith

11 · Z. Silcott-Duberry

14 · E. Francis

19 · L. Hannant

9 · E. Dieseruvwe

Our number · crewe winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market51%

Us48%

~~Market~~51%

We make Crewe a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Crewe v Rochdale~~1.45 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 14~~3 v 10

~~The market · Crewe win~~51% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Crewe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Crewe win	48%	51%	−3
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Rochdale win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	51%	−8
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	69%	74%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	31%	−8
Crewe or draw	75%	77%	−2
Crewe clean sheet	39%	–	–
Rochdale clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 9.4 8.6 4.2 1 12.9 12.4 5.9 2 9.3 8.8 4.2 3 4.6 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Crewe down, Rochdale across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Crewe at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Rochdale away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Crewe, 0.96 for Rochdale. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CRE 1–1 ROC · ROC 1–2 CRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept

CREWE

DDDDWW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

ROCHDALE

LDWWWD1–4 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	10	+5	19
2	Barnet	8	+9	18
3	Crewe	10	+5	18
4	Gillingham	10	+5	16
5	York	9	+6	15
6	Walsall	9	+6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	+3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	−2	15
10	Rochdale	10	−1	14
11	Grimsby	10	+2	13
12	Newport County	10	+1	13
13	Tranmere	10	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	−1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	−1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	−5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	−6	11
19	Colchester	9	−3	10
20	Rotherham	10	−4	10
21	Oldham	9	−4	8
22	Port Vale	8	−5	8
23	Northampton	8	−3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	−7	5