Crawley Town v Tranmere

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Crawley Town win at 42%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Crawley Town 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
3. 1′KICK-OFF Crawley Town v Tranmere
4. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Kai Jennings · Crawley Town
5. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Crawley Town win 36%)
6. 45′HALF-TIME Crawley Town 0–0 Tranmere
7. 45′SECOND HALF Crawley Town 0–0 Tranmere
8. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Tranmere · On: Charlie Jay Whitaker · Off: dylan jones
9. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Crawley Town win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
10. 53′52′: Dylan Morgan on the scoresheet for Crawley Town, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
11. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Crawley Town 1–0 Tranmere
12. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Crawley Town win: 42% at kick-off, 75% now
13. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Crawley Town win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 44%)
14. 54′We said Crawley Town at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
15. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 34–39–27 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
16. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Tranmere · On: David Kamara · Off: Tom Conlon
17. 61′We said Crawley Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–50–23
18. 61′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 28–50–23
19. 61′Tranmere level it on 60′ through Will Vaulks. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–50–23
20. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Crawley Town 1–1 Tranmere
21. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Crawley Town win: 42% at kick-off, 28% now
22. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Crawley Town win 77%)
23. 67′We said Crawley Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–20
24. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Thomas Ince · Tranmere
25. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Crawley Town · On: Pemi Aderoju · Off: Danilo Orsi
26. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Crawley Town win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
27. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Crawley Town · On: Dion Pereira · Off: Ade Adeyemo
28. 74′We said Crawley Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
29. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Will Vaulks · Tranmere
30. 78′Crawley Town have had 11 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 15–72–13
31. 79′We said Crawley Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
32. 81′12 shots for Crawley Town, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 12–78–10
33. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Crawley Town win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
34. 84′We said Crawley Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
35. 90′1–1 at the end. Our 42% on Crawley Town misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
36. 91′We said Crawley Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
37. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Crawley Town · On: Nathan Tinsdale · Off: Stephen·Duke-Mckenna
38. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Crawley Town win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
39. FTFULL TIME Crawley Town 1–1 Tranmere
40. FTCrawley Town 1–1 Tranmere · Crawley Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.