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Crawley Town v Chesterfield

Crawley Town

2–2Full time

Chesterfield

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · Broadfield Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Crawley Town 2–2 Chesterfield CHESTERFIELD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chesterfield win~~45%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.844

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.981

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chesterfield win at 45%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Chesterfield 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 30–26–44
3′KICK-OFF Crawley Town v Chesterfield
22′⚽ GOAL · 23' Crawley Town 0–0 Chesterfield · Lee Bonis
25′Chesterfield ahead on 23′ through Lee Bonis. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–19–72
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Crawley Town 0–1 Chesterfield · Lee Bonis
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Chesterfield win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
29′We said Chesterfield at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 9–19–72
31′We said Chesterfield at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 9–19–72
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 8–19–73
41′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Crawley Town · On: Nathan Tinsdale · Off: Akinwale Joseph Odimayo
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Kai Jennings · Crawley Town
46′SECOND HALF Crawley Town 0–1 Chesterfield
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Crawley Town 0–2 Chesterfield · Lee Bonis
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Crawley Town 0–2 Chesterfield · Louie Marsh
59′⚽ GOAL · 23' Crawley Town 0–2 Chesterfield · Lee Bonis (assist Lewis Gordon)
59′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Crawley Town · On: Nathan Tinsdale · Off: Akinwale Joseph Odimayo
59′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Kai Jennings · Crawley Town
59′⚽ GOAL · 56' Crawley Town 0–2 Chesterfield · Louie Marsh
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Crawley Town · On: Gianmarco biase di · Off: Danilo Orsi
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Crawley Town · On: Osman kamara · Off: Stephen·Duke-Mckenna
60′⚽ GOAL · 61' Crawley Town 1–2 Chesterfield · Gianmarco biase di
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Crawley Town 1–2 Chesterfield · Gianmarco biase di
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Chesterfield · On: Josh Koroma · Off: Joel Randall
64′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Josh Koroma · Chesterfield
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Crawley Town 2–2 Chesterfield · Gianmarco biase di
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Crawley Town 2–2 Chesterfield · Gianmarco biase di
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Crawley Town · On: Kellan Gordon · Off: Lewis Richards
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Crawley Town · On: Jonathan Russell · Off: Charlie Barker
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Louie Marsh · Chesterfield
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Gianmarco biase di · Crawley Town
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Jack Simpson · Chesterfield
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Chesterfield · On: Liam Mandeville · Off: Louie Marsh
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Chesterfield · On: Kiano Dyer · Off: Dilan Markanday Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Chesterfield · On: Will Grigg · Off: George McEachran Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Kyle McFadzean · Chesterfield
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Jonathan Russell · Crawley Town
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Lewis Gordon · Chesterfield
FTFULL TIME Crawley Town 2–2 Chesterfield
FTCrawley Town 2–2 Chesterfield · Chesterfield win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Crawley Town win30%

Draw25%

Chesterfield win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Broadfield Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Crawley Town

3-5-2

1 V. Mannone

6 P. Farquharson

24 A. Odimayo

12 L. Richards

22 A. Adeyemo

20 J. Arthurs

5 C. Barker

30 K. Jennings

10 S. Duke-McKenna

27 D. Morgan

9 D. Orsi-Dadomo

Coach · Colin Kazim-Richards

Substitutes

13 · N. Michalski

16 · J. Russell

28 · N. Tinsdale

2 · K. Gordon

8 · L. Watson

14 · G. Di Biase

17 · O. Kamara

Chesterfield

4-2-3-1

23 R. Boot

33 R. Hutton

5 K. McFadzean

6 J. Simpson

19 L. Gordon

20 G. McEachran

8 R. Stirk

24 D. Markanday

18 L. Marsh

31 J. Randall

10 L. Bonis

Coach · Paul Cook

Substitutes

46 · T. Pearce

26 · J. Eccleston

7 · L. Mandeville

27 · K. Dyer

4 · T. Naylor

28 · W. Grigg

37 · J. Koroma

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Crawley Town

3-5-2

1 V. Mannone

6 P. Farquharson

24 A. Odimayo

12 L. Richards

22 A. Adeyemo

20 J. Arthurs

5 C. Barker

30 K. Jennings

10 S. Duke-McKenna

27 D. Morgan

9 D. Orsi-Dadomo

Coach · Colin Kazim-Richards

Substitutes

13 · N. Michalski

16 · J. Russell

28 · N. Tinsdale

2 · K. Gordon

8 · L. Watson

14 · G. Di Biase

17 · O. Kamara

Chesterfield

4-2-3-1

23 R. Boot

33 R. Hutton

5 K. McFadzean

6 J. Simpson

19 L. Gordon

20 G. McEachran

8 R. Stirk

24 D. Markanday

18 L. Marsh

31 J. Randall

10 L. Bonis

Coach · Paul Cook

Substitutes

46 · T. Pearce

26 · J. Eccleston

7 · L. Mandeville

27 · K. Dyer

4 · T. Naylor

28 · W. Grigg

37 · J. Koroma

Our number · chesterfield winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

45% The market58%

Us45%

~~Market~~58%

We make Chesterfield a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chesterfield win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Crawley Town win	30%	20%	+10
Draw	25%	22%	+3
Chesterfield win	45%	58%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	51%	62%	−11
Both teams to score	54%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	82%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	29%	42%	−13
Crawley Town or draw	55%	42%	+14
Crawley Town clean sheet	22%	–	–
Chesterfield clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.9 9.9 7.6 3.9 1 7.8 12.0 9.0 4.6 2 4.8 7.1 5.4 2.7 3 2.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Crawley Town down, Chesterfield across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,887 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Crawley Town at home: 0.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chesterfield away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Crawley Town, 1.52 for Chesterfield. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CRA 1–1 CHE · CHE 2–2 CRA

Form · last six in League Two

CRAWLEY TOWN

WLDLLL2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–2

CHESTERFIELD

DDWWLW1–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	9	+3	16
2	Barnet	7	+7	15
3	Crewe	9	+4	15
4	Cheltenham	9	+2	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	0	15
6	York	8	+6	14
7	Walsall	8	+6	14
8	Chesterfield	9	+3	14
9	Grimsby	9	+3	13
10	Gillingham	9	+2	13
11	Rochdale	9	−1	13
12	Tranmere	9	0	11
13	Swindon Town	9	−4	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	−5	11
15	Newport County	9	0	10
16	Accrington ST	9	−1	10
17	Rotherham	9	−1	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	−1	10
19	Colchester	8	−2	10
20	Exeter City	9	−1	9
21	Oldham	8	−4	7
22	Northampton	7	−3	6
23	Port Vale	7	−6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	−7	4