Chesterfield v Crewe prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Chesterfield 5–1 Crewe CHESTERFIELD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chesterfield win~~46%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.433

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.287

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chesterfield win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chesterfield was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
1′KICK-OFF Chesterfield v Crewe
3′Chesterfield find the net on 2′. 0–0 · 46–27–28
4′Josh Koroma scores for Chesterfield on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–11
4′We published Chesterfield at 46%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–17–11
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Chesterfield 1–0 Crewe · Josh Koroma
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Chesterfield win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
6′SUBSTITUTION · 5' Chesterfield · On: Dilan Markanday · Off: Josh Koroma
7′We published Chesterfield at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
7′6′: Tom Naylor on the scoresheet for Chesterfield, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Chesterfield 2–0 Crewe
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Chesterfield win: 46% at kick-off, 90% now
19′We published Chesterfield at 46%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–0
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Chesterfield 3–0 Crewe
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Chesterfield win: 46% at kick-off, 98% now
21′Chesterfield ahead on 19′ through F. Bryden. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 98–1–0
35′We published Chesterfield at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
35′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Chesterfield 4–0 Crewe
37′An own goal by Crewe's Joshua Stephenson on 36′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
37′An own goal by Crewe's Joshua Stephenson on 35′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Chesterfield 5–0 Crewe
45′SECOND HALF Chesterfield 5–0 Crewe
46′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Chesterfield 5–0 Crewe
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Crewe · On: Charlie McNeill · Off: Joel Tabiner
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Crewe · On: Owen lunt · Off: Conor Thomas
47′45′: Liam Mandeville on the scoresheet for Chesterfield, making it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
57′6 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Chesterfield 5–1 Crewe
58′Crewe pull one back on 57′ through Charlie McNeill. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Chesterfield · On: Lewis Gordon · Off: Tom Pearce
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Chesterfield · On: Lee Bonis · Off: F. Bryden
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Crewe · On: Adrien thibaut · Off: Josh March
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Crewe · On: Kyle Ure · Off: Reece Hutchinson
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Lee Bell · Crewe
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Crewe · On: Joe White · Off: Matúš Holíček
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Chesterfield · On: Kiano Dyer · Off: Louie Marsh
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Chesterfield · On: Rafiq Lamptey · Off: Tom Naylor
FTFULL TIME Chesterfield 5–1 Crewe
FTChesterfield 5–1 Crewe · Chesterfield win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chesterfield are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chesterfield 46%, draw 26%, Crewe 28%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Chesterfield v CreweBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chesterfield win46%

Draw26%

Crewe win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueProact Stadium

Line-ups

Chesterfield

4-2-3-1

Crewe

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chesterfield

Crewe

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Crewe	12	+4	21
9	Chesterfield	12	+2	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chesterfield

4-2-3-1

1 Z. Hemming

33 R. Hutton

15 A. Pond

6 J. Simpson

46 T. Pearce

4 T. Naylor

20 G. McEachran

7 L. Mandeville

18 L. Marsh

37 J. Koroma

9 F. Bryden

Coach · P. Cook

Substitutes

10 · L. Bonis

11 · D. Duffy

27 · K. Dyer

19 · L. Gordon

30 · R. Lamptey

24 · D. Markanday

26 · J. Eccleston

Crewe

4-2-3-1

1 T. Booth

2 L. Billington

6 L. Offord

12 J. Stephenson

3 R. Hutchinson

17 M. Holíček

8 C. Thomas

11 J. Tabiner

20 Calum Agius

14 J. Gibson

9 J. March

Coach · Lee Bell

Substitutes

10 · J. White

4 · Kyle Ure

29 · A. Thibaut

23 · C. McNeill

19 · O. Lunt

13 · I. Lawlor

30 · Stan Dancey

Our number · chesterfield winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market56%

Us46%

~~Market~~56%

We make Chesterfield a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chesterfield v Crewe~~1.50 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 21~~9 v 3

~~The market · Chesterfield win~~56% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chesterfield win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chesterfield win	46%	56%	−10
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Crewe win	28%	20%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	48%	57%	−9
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	78%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	36%	−9
Chesterfield or draw	72%	80%	−8
Chesterfield clean sheet	34%	–	–
Crewe clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.8 8.1 4.5 1 11.0 12.3 6.6 2.5 2 8.3 9.0 5.0 3 4.2 4.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chesterfield down, Crewe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,923 League Two matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chesterfield at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Crewe away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Chesterfield, 1.10 for Crewe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CHE 2–0 CRE · CRE 3–3 CHE · CRE 7–1 CHE · CHE 1–3 CRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 19 Sept

CHESTERFIELD

WLWDLD2–0 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

CREWE

DDWWWL1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	10	+8	21
3	Crewe	12	+4	21
4	Walsall	11	+9	19
5	Cheltenham	12	−1	18
6	York	11	+6	17
7	Gillingham	12	+3	17
8	Shrewsbury	12	−4	17
9	Chesterfield	12	+2	16
10	Exeter City	12	+2	16
11	Accrington ST	12	+1	15
12	Newport County	12	+1	15
13	Tranmere	12	0	15
14	Rochdale	12	−2	15
15	Swindon Town	12	−3	15
16	Bristol Rovers	12	−4	15
17	Grimsby	12	0	14
18	Fleetwood Town	12	−1	14
19	Colchester	11	−3	12
20	Port Vale	10	−4	12
21	Oldham	11	−4	11
22	Rotherham	12	−6	11
23	Northampton	10	−2	10
24	Crawley Town	10	−9	5