Chesterfield v Colchester prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Chesterfield 1–1 Colchester CHESTERFIELD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Chesterfield win~~47%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.839

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.987

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chesterfield win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chesterfield was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Chesterfield v Colchester
30′A goal for Chesterfield on 29′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
30′We published Chesterfield at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Chesterfield 1–0 Colchester
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Chesterfield win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Lewis Gordon · Chesterfield
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Bradley ihionvein · Colchester
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Chesterfield win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Danny Cowley · Colchester
45′HALF-TIME Chesterfield 1–0 Colchester
45′SECOND HALF Chesterfield 1–0 Colchester
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Alfie Pond · Chesterfield
56′We published Chesterfield at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Robert Donald Hunt · Colchester
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Chesterfield · On: Dylan Duffy · Off: Dilan Markanday
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Chesterfield · On: Tom Naylor · Off: Louie Marsh
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chesterfield · On: Liam Mandeville · Off: Josh Koroma
70′We published Chesterfield at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chesterfield · On: Kiano Dyer · Off: George McEachran
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Chesterfield win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Colchester · On: Oscar thorn · Off: Jaden Williams
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Colchester · On: Samuel Kuffour Jr. · Off: Kane Vincent-Young
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Colchester · On: Ben perry · Off: Robert Donald Hunt
79′We published Chesterfield at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Ryan Stirk · Chesterfield
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Colchester · On: Kien Connelly · Off: Paul Digby
83′82′: Ben perry on the scoresheet for Colchester, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 10–83–7
83′We said Chesterfield at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 10–83–7
83′Chesterfield have had 18 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 10–83–7
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Chesterfield 1–1 Colchester · Ben perry
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Chesterfield win: 47% at kick-off, 10% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Chesterfield win 92%)
85′We said Chesterfield at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–86–6
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Chesterfield · On: F. Bryden · Off: Lee Bonis
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Chesterfield win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Colchester · On: Leon Chiwome · Off: Bradley ihionvein
91′We said Chesterfield at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Chesterfield 1–1 Colchester
FTChesterfield 1–1 Colchester · Chesterfield win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chesterfield are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chesterfield 47%, draw 26%, Colchester 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Chesterfield v ColchesterBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Chesterfield win47%

Draw26%

Colchester win26%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueProact Stadium

Line-ups

Chesterfield

4-2-3-1

Colchester

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chesterfield

Colchester

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Chesterfield	11	+2	15
20	Colchester	10	−3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chesterfield

4-2-3-1

23 R. Boot

33 R. Hutton

15 A. Pond

6 J. Simpson

19 L. Gordon

20 G. McEachran

8 R. Stirk

24 D. Markanday

18 L. Marsh

37 J. Koroma

10 L. Bonis

Coach · P. Cook

Substitutes

7 · L. Mandeville

26 · J. Eccleston

27 · K. Dyer

11 · D. Duffy

9 · F. Bryden

4 · T. Naylor

46 · T. Pearce

Colchester

4-2-3-1

22 T. Lo-Tutala

30 K. Vincent-Young

5 J. Tucker

24 F. Terry

3 E. Iandolo

26 J. Williams

2 R. Hunt

12 M. Sesay

6 P. Digby

17 Jaden Williams

9 B. Ihionvien

Coach · D. Cowley

Substitutes

11 · L. Chiwome

39 · K. Connelly

47 · R. Harvey

44 · S. Kuffour

4 · Ben Perry

20 · S. Raggett

27 · O. Thorn

Our number · chesterfield winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 03:52 · locked at kick-off

47% The market59%

Us47%

~~Market~~59%

We make Chesterfield a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chesterfield v Colchester~~1.49 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 11~~7 v 20

~~The market · Chesterfield win~~59% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chesterfield win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chesterfield win	47%	59%	−12
Draw	26%	22%	+4
Colchester win	26%	19%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	46%	57%	−11
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	79%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	25%	38%	−13
Chesterfield or draw	74%	81%	−7
Chesterfield clean sheet	36%	–	–
Colchester clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.3 8.2 4.3 1 11.7 12.3 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 9.0 4.7 3 4.4 4.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chesterfield down, Colchester across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League Two matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chesterfield at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Colchester away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Chesterfield, 1.04 for Colchester. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CHE 3–0 COL · COL 6–2 CHE · COL 1–0 CHE · CHE 1–1 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept

CHESTERFIELD

WWLWDL2–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

COLCHESTER

LDDDLD1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	11	+6	22
2	Barnet	9	+10	21
3	Crewe	11	+6	21
4	York	10	+6	16
5	Walsall	10	+6	16
6	Gillingham	11	+3	16
7	Chesterfield	11	+2	15
8	Cheltenham	11	−3	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	−3	15
10	Accrington ST	11	+1	14
11	Newport County	11	+1	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	+1	14
13	Rochdale	11	−2	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	−5	14
15	Grimsby	11	0	13
16	Exeter City	11	0	13
17	Tranmere	11	−1	12
18	Swindon Town	11	−5	12
19	Oldham	10	−1	11
20	Colchester	10	−3	11
21	Port Vale	9	−4	11
22	Northampton	9	−1	10
23	Rotherham	11	−6	10
24	Crawley Town	9	−8	5