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Cheltenham v Salford City

Cheltenham

0–2Full time

Salford City

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · Whaddon Road

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Cheltenham 0–2 Salford City SALFORD CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Salford City win~~40%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.541

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.341

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Salford City win at 40%.
3′Much as we predicted: Salford City was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
3′KICK-OFF Cheltenham v Salford City
8′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Freddie willcox · Cheltenham
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Jake Evans · Cheltenham
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Salford City · On: Kallum Cesay · Off: Ryan Graydon
45′SECOND HALF Cheltenham 0–0 Salford City
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Salford City win 32%)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Abraham Odoh · Salford City
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Luke Molyneux · Salford City
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Jonathan Tomkinson · Cheltenham
62′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Freddie willcox · Cheltenham
62′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Jake Evans · Cheltenham
62′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Salford City · On: Kallum Cesay · Off: Ryan Graydon
62′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Abraham Odoh · Salford City
62′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Luke Molyneux · Salford City
62′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Jonathan Tomkinson · Cheltenham
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Jordan Shipley · Cheltenham
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Will Aimson · Salford City
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Salford City · On: Luke Garbutt · Off: Abraham Odoh
78′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Salford City
78′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Ben Stevenson · Cheltenham
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Cheltenham 0–1 Salford City
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Cheltenham 0–1 Salford City · Jorge Grant
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Cheltenham · On: George Miller · Off: Ryan Broom
84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Andreas Weimann · Cheltenham
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Cheltenham · On: George Nurse · Off: Jake Evans
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Salford City · On: Nathan Asiimwe · Off: Luke Molyneux
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Cheltenham 0–2 Salford City · Jorge Grant
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Cheltenham · On: K. Otchere · Off: Jordan Shipley
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Cheltenham 0–2 Salford City · Jorge Grant
95′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Salford City · On: Daniel Udoh · Off: Macaulay Langstaff
95′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Salford City · On: Matt·Butcher · Off: Brendan Sarpeng-Wiredu
97′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Kallum Cesay · Salford City
FTFULL TIME Cheltenham 0–2 Salford City
FTCheltenham 0–2 Salford City · Salford City win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cheltenham win35%

Draw25%

Salford City win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Whaddon Road

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cheltenham

4-1-4-1

23 W. Stanway

6 J. Wilson

5 R. Cundy

25 P. Sweeney

3 J. Tomkinson

7 B. Stevenson

19 J. Evans

33 F. Willcox

26 J. Shipley

14 R. Broom

18 A. Weimann

Coach · Steve Cotterill

Substitutes

1 · J. Day

31 · M. Diallo

21 · G. Nurse

10 · G. Miller

9 · K. Otchere

11 · J. Bickerstaff

Salford City

3-5-2

1 W. Norris

4 W. Aimson

17 D. Scarr

24 T. Allen

43 L. Molyneux

44 B. Wiredu

16 E. Bonds

8 J. Grant

14 A. Odoh

19 R. Graydon

9 M. Langstaff

Coach · Peter Cklamovski

Substitutes

26 · L. Burge

29 · L. Garbutt

22 · A. Oluwo

2 · N. Asiimwe

18 · M. Butcher

21 · K. Cesay

23 · D. Udoh

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cheltenham

4-1-4-1

23 W. Stanway

6 J. Wilson

5 R. Cundy

25 P. Sweeney

3 J. Tomkinson

7 B. Stevenson

19 J. Evans

33 F. Willcox

26 J. Shipley

14 R. Broom

18 A. Weimann

Coach · Steve Cotterill

Substitutes

1 · J. Day

31 · M. Diallo

21 · G. Nurse

10 · G. Miller

9 · K. Otchere

11 · J. Bickerstaff

Salford City

3-5-2

1 W. Norris

4 W. Aimson

17 D. Scarr

24 T. Allen

43 L. Molyneux

44 B. Wiredu

16 E. Bonds

8 J. Grant

14 A. Odoh

19 R. Graydon

9 M. Langstaff

Coach · Peter Cklamovski

Substitutes

26 · L. Burge

29 · L. Garbutt

22 · A. Oluwo

2 · N. Asiimwe

18 · M. Butcher

21 · K. Cesay

23 · D. Udoh

Our number · salford city winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market52%

Us40%

~~Market~~52%

We make Salford City a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · salford city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cheltenham win	35%	23%	+12
Draw	25%	25%	+1
Salford City win	40%	52%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
Cheltenham or draw	60%	48%	+12
Cheltenham clean sheet	23%	–	–
Salford City clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.0 8.5 6.4 3.2 1 7.8 11.7 8.6 4.3 2 5.4 7.9 5.8 2.9 3 2.5 3.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cheltenham down, Salford City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,887 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cheltenham at home: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Salford City away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Cheltenham, 1.49 for Salford City. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CHE 3–2 SAL · SAL 1–1 CHE · CHE 2–1 SAL · SAL 2–1 CHE

Form · last six in League Two

CHELTENHAM

WDWDWL3–2 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

SALFORD CITY

WWDWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	9	+3	16
2	Barnet	7	+7	15
3	Crewe	9	+4	15
4	Cheltenham	9	+2	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	0	15
6	York	8	+6	14
7	Walsall	8	+6	14
8	Chesterfield	9	+3	14
9	Grimsby	9	+3	13
10	Gillingham	9	+2	13
11	Rochdale	9	−1	13
12	Tranmere	9	0	11
13	Swindon Town	9	−4	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	−5	11
15	Newport County	9	0	10
16	Accrington ST	9	−1	10
17	Rotherham	9	−1	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	−1	10
19	Colchester	8	−2	10
20	Exeter City	9	−1	9
21	Oldham	8	−4	7
22	Northampton	7	−3	6
23	Port Vale	7	−6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	−7	4