Cheltenham v Newport County prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Cheltenham 1–0 Newport County CHELTENHAM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cheltenham win~~47%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.427

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.591

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cheltenham win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cheltenham 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
1′KICK-OFF Cheltenham v Newport County
5′Cheltenham find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–12
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Cheltenham 1–0 Newport County
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Cheltenham win: 47% at kick-off, 71% now
6′We said Cheltenham at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–10
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Gerard Garner · Newport County
35′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Newport County · On: Matthew Smith · Off: M. Dibley-Dias
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Michael Adu-Poku · Newport County
45′HALF-TIME Cheltenham 1–0 Newport County
45′SECOND HALF Cheltenham 1–0 Newport County
46′8 shots for Newport County, 3 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
48′We said Cheltenham at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Jake Evans · Cheltenham
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' K. Otchere · Cheltenham
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Cheltenham win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Matthew Smith · Newport County
61′12 shots for Newport County, 5 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
62′PENALTY MISSED · 61' Harrison Biggins · Newport County
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Newport County · On: Kion Etete · Off: Gerard Garner
66′We said Cheltenham at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cheltenham · On: Ryan Broom · Off: Charlie McCann
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cheltenham · On: Jake Bickerstaff · Off: K. Otchere
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Cheltenham · On: George Miller · Off: Jake Evans
75′We said Cheltenham at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Cheltenham win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
82′We said Cheltenham at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Newport County · On: Kieron Thomas Evans · Off: Yahya Bamba
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Newport County · On: Thomas Davies · Off: joe thomas
88′We said Cheltenham at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Cheltenham win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Cheltenham 1–0 Newport County
FTCheltenham 1–0 Newport County · Cheltenham win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cheltenham are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cheltenham 47%, draw 24%, Newport County 29%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Cheltenham v Newport CountyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Cheltenham win47%

Draw24%

Newport County win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 13

VenueWhaddon Road

Line-ups

Cheltenham

4-2-3-1

Newport County

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cheltenham

Newport County

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League Two

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Cheltenham	12	−1	18
12	Newport County	12	+1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cheltenham

4-2-3-1

23 W. Stanway

3 J. Tomkinson

25 P. Sweeney

6 J. Wilson

26 J. Shipley

7 B. Stevenson

33 F. Willcox

19 J. Evans

8 C. McCann

9 K. Otchere

18 A. Weimann

Coach · S. Cotterill

Substitutes

11 · J. Bickerstaff

14 · R. Broom

31 · M. Diallo

10 · G. Miller

21 · G. Nurse

20 · Favour Onukwuli

Newport County

4-2-3-1

1 J. Wright

22 C. Norman

5 L. Jenkins

4 K. Cameron

12 Joe Thomas

24 M. Dibley-Dias

6 C. Brennan

23 M. Adu-Poku

10 H. Biggins

20 Y. Bamba

19 G. Garner

Coach · H. Mullins

Substitutes

8 · M. Smith

34 · D. Sassi

33 · S. MacDonald

7 · K. Evans

2 · C. Evans

28 · K. Etete

3 · T. Davies

Our number · cheltenham winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

47% The market37%

Us47%

~~Market~~37%

We make Cheltenham a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cheltenham v Newport County~~1.72 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 18 v 15~~5 v 12

~~The market · Cheltenham win~~37% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cheltenham win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cheltenham win	47%	37%	+10
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Newport County win	29%	35%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	58%	50%	+8
Both teams to score	60%	55%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	72%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	36%	29%	+7
Cheltenham or draw	71%	65%	+6
Cheltenham clean sheet	27%	–	–
Newport County clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.1 6.3 4.2 1 8.2 10.9 7.1 3.1 2 7.1 9.2 6.0 2.7 3 4.1 5.3 3.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cheltenham down, Newport County across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,923 League Two matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cheltenham at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Newport County away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Cheltenham, 1.32 for Newport County. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 12:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–0 NEW · NEW 0–2 CHE · NEW 0–3 CHE · NEW 1–2 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 19 Sept

CHELTENHAM

DWLLLW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 4–2

NEWPORT COUNTY

DWDWDD0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	10	+8	21
3	Crewe	12	+4	21
4	Walsall	11	+9	19
5	Cheltenham	12	−1	18
6	York	11	+6	17
7	Gillingham	12	+3	17
8	Shrewsbury	12	−4	17
9	Chesterfield	12	+2	16
10	Exeter City	12	+2	16
11	Accrington ST	12	+1	15
12	Newport County	12	+1	15
13	Tranmere	12	0	15
14	Rochdale	12	−2	15
15	Swindon Town	12	−3	15
16	Bristol Rovers	12	−4	15
17	Grimsby	12	0	14
18	Fleetwood Town	12	−1	14
19	Colchester	11	−3	12
20	Port Vale	10	−4	12
21	Oldham	11	−4	11
22	Rotherham	12	−6	11
23	Northampton	10	−2	10
24	Crawley Town	10	−9	5