Cheltenham v Fleetwood Town prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Cheltenham 4–2 Fleetwood Town FLEETWOOD TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fleetwood Town win~~37%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.606

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.750

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fleetwood Town win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Fleetwood Town 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–26–37
1′KICK-OFF Cheltenham v Fleetwood Town
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Adam Murphy · Fleetwood Town
17′An own goal by Fleetwood Town's Jay Lynch on 17′. 0–0 · 35–29–36
18′We said Fleetwood Town at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 64–21–15
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Cheltenham 1–0 Fleetwood Town · Jay Lynch (own goal)
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Fleetwood Town win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
19′We said Fleetwood Town at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–21–14
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Ben Stevenson · Cheltenham
25′We said Fleetwood Town at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 87–9–4
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Cheltenham 2–0 Fleetwood Town
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Fleetwood Town win: 37% at kick-off, 4% now
26′K. Otchere scores for Cheltenham on 25′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Shaun Rooney · Fleetwood Town
40′39′: Jake Evans on the scoresheet for Cheltenham, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Cheltenham 3–0 Fleetwood Town · Jake Evans
41′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 98–2–0
45′HALF-TIME Cheltenham 3–0 Fleetwood Town
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fleetwood Town · On: Ched Evans · Off: Will davies
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fleetwood Town · On: Crispin McLean · Off: Adam Murphy
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fleetwood Town · On: Conor Haughey · Off: Ronan Coughlan
45′SECOND HALF Cheltenham 3–0 Fleetwood Town
50′Fleetwood Town pull one back on 50′ through Ched Evans. 3–1. 3–1 · 92–6–2
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Cheltenham 3–1 Fleetwood Town · Ched Evans
51′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 92–6–1
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Jonathan Tomkinson · Cheltenham
65′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 77–19–4
65′Ched Evans scores for Fleetwood Town on 65′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 77–19–4
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Cheltenham 3–2 Fleetwood Town
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Stephen John Cotterill · Cheltenham
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Cheltenham · On: Ryan Broom · Off: K. Otchere
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Fleetwood Town · On: Aaron Loupalo-Bi · Off: Lewis McCann
80′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 99–1–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Cheltenham 4–2 Fleetwood Town
81′81′: Freddie willcox on the scoresheet for Cheltenham, making it 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
82′80′: Freddie willcox on the scoresheet for Cheltenham, making it 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cheltenham · On: George Miller · Off: Jake Evans
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Cheltenham · On: George Nurse · Off: Jordan Shipley
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Cheltenham · On: Jake Bickerstaff · Off: Andreas Weimann
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Fleetwood Town · On: R. Cirino · Off: Finley Potter
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' R. Bennett · Fleetwood Town
FTFULL TIME Cheltenham 4–2 Fleetwood Town
FTCheltenham 4–2 Fleetwood Town · Fleetwood Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Fleetwood Town just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Cheltenham 37%, draw 26%, Fleetwood Town 37%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Cheltenham v Fleetwood TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Cheltenham win37%

Draw26%

Fleetwood Town win37%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueWhaddon Road

Line-ups

Cheltenham

4-1-4-1

Fleetwood Town

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cheltenham

Fleetwood Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Cheltenham	11	−3	15
12	Fleetwood Town	11	+1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cheltenham

4-1-4-1

23 W. Stanway

3 J. Tomkinson

6 J. Wilson

25 P. Sweeney

33 F. Willcox

7 B. Stevenson

19 J. Evans

9 K. Otchere

8 C. McCann

26 J. Shipley

18 A. Weimann

Coach · S. Cotterill

Substitutes

11 · J. Bickerstaff

14 · R. Broom

31 · M. Diallo

10 · G. Miller

21 · G. Nurse

20 · Favour Onukwuli

Fleetwood Town

3-1-4-2

1 J. Lynch

26 S. Rooney

6 R. Bennett

5 F. Potter

4 H. Neal

14 L. McCann

15 A. Murphy

10 M. Helm

24 Jake Thomas Batty

19 R. Coughlan

9 W. Davies

Coach · M. Lawlor

Substitutes

17 · C. Evans

20 · A. Loupalo-Bi

22 · J. Pradic

28 · J. Robertson

27 · C. McLean

16 · Conor Haughey

29 · R. Cirino

Our number · fleetwood town winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 03:52 · locked at kick-off

37% The market43%

Us37%

~~Market~~43%

We make Fleetwood Town a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cheltenham v Fleetwood Town~~1.37 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 14~~8 v 12

~~The market · Fleetwood Town win~~43% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fleetwood Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cheltenham win	37%	30%	+7
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Fleetwood Town win	37%	43%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	52%	52%	0
Both teams to score	55%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	32%	−2
Cheltenham or draw	63%	57%	+6
Cheltenham clean sheet	25%	–	–
Fleetwood Town clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.7 8.8 6.1 2.8 1 8.7 12.1 8.2 3.8 2 6.0 8.1 5.6 2.6 3 2.8 3.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cheltenham down, Fleetwood Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League Two matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cheltenham at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fleetwood Town away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Cheltenham, 1.38 for Fleetwood Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FLE 2–2 CHE · CHE 2–0 FLE · FLE 2–0 CHE · CHE 0–2 FLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 12 Sept

CHELTENHAM

WDWLLL3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–4

FLEETWOOD TOWN

DLLLDW1–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	11	+6	22
2	Barnet	9	+10	21
3	Crewe	11	+6	21
4	York	10	+6	16
5	Walsall	10	+6	16
6	Gillingham	11	+3	16
7	Chesterfield	11	+2	15
8	Cheltenham	11	−3	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	−3	15
10	Accrington ST	11	+1	14
11	Newport County	11	+1	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	+1	14
13	Rochdale	11	−2	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	−5	14
15	Grimsby	11	0	13
16	Exeter City	11	0	13
17	Tranmere	11	−1	12
18	Swindon Town	11	−5	12
19	Oldham	10	−1	11
20	Colchester	10	−3	11
21	Port Vale	9	−4	11
22	Northampton	9	−1	10
23	Rotherham	11	−6	10
24	Crawley Town	9	−8	5