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Bristol Rovers v Barnet

Bristol Rovers

1–3Full time

Barnet

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · Memorial Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Bristol Rovers 1–3 Barnet BARNET WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barnet win~~40%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.554

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.689

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barnet win at 40%.
3′Ellis Harrison scores for Bristol Rovers on 4′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 36–25–39
3′KICK-OFF Bristol Rovers v Barnet
7′⚽ GOAL · 4' Bristol Rovers 1–0 Barnet · Ellis Harrison
11′We said Barnet at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 61–21–18
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Barnet win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Bristol Rovers win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Barnet win 18%)
29′We said Barnet at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
31′We said Barnet at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
31′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Shaqai Forde · Bristol Rovers
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Idris Kanu · Barnet
37′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 65–22–12
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Barnet win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
46′SECOND HALF Bristol Rovers 1–0 Barnet
49′We said Barnet at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Barnet · On: Nikola Tavares · Off: Romoney Crichlow-Noble
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Barnet · On: Brandon Comley · Off: Jake Reeves
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Barnet · On: Damola Ajayi · Off: Tom Knowles
63′⚽ GOAL · 4' Bristol Rovers 1–0 Barnet · Ellis Harrison
63′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Shaqai Forde · Bristol Rovers
63′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Idris Kanu · Barnet
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Barnet · On: Nikola Tavares · Off: Romoney Crichlow-Noble
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Barnet · On: Brandon Comley · Off: Jake Reeves
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Barnet · On: Damola Ajayi · Off: Tom Knowles
64′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Ben Purrington · Bristol Rovers
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Steve Evans · Bristol Rovers
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Barnet · On: J Maskell · Off: Idris Kanu
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Bristol Rovers 1–0 Barnet · Adam Senior
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Bristol Rovers 1–1 Barnet · Adam Senior
84′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Tommy Leigh · Bristol Rovers
85′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Tommy Leigh · Bristol Rovers
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Bristol Rovers 1–2 Barnet · Adam Senior
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' Bristol Rovers 1–2 Barnet · Zac Williams
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Bristol Rovers · On: Joe Quigley · Off: Ellis Harrison
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Barnet · On: Myles Kenlock · Off: Charlie Lakin
95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Daniele Collinge · Barnet
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Bristol Rovers 1–3 Barnet · Zac Williams
96′⚽ GOAL · 95' Bristol Rovers 1–3 Barnet · Kabongo Tshimanga (assist Damola Ajayi)
FTFULL TIME Bristol Rovers 1–3 Barnet
FTBristol Rovers 1–3 Barnet · Barnet win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bristol Rovers win36%

Draw25%

Barnet win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Memorial Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Bristol Rovers

4-2-3-1

1 B. Young

2 T. James

4 K. Balmer

17 C. Kelly

14 B. Purrington

22 K. Gough

6 C. Mola

7 S. Forde

24 T. Leigh

19 E. Harrison

29 F. Cavegn

Coach · Steve Evans

Substitutes

32 · C. Binns

3 · J. Sparkes

5 · A. Kilgour

28 · A. Appiah

21 · R. Smallwood

8 · R. Russell-Denny

9 · J. Quigley

Barnet

4-2-3-1

13 M. Cox

5 A. Senior

4 D. Collinge

6 Z. Williams

3 R. Crichlow

22 O. Gallagher

23 J. Reeves

7 T. Knowles

8 C. Lakin

11 I. Kanu

20 K. Tshimanga

Coach · Dean Brennan

Substitutes

36 · A. Haralambous

30 · M. Kenlock

25 · N. Tavares

14 · B. Comley

17 · D. Ajayi

37 · A. Liwala

9 · J. Maskell

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bristol Rovers

4-2-3-1

1 B. Young

2 T. James

4 K. Balmer

17 C. Kelly

14 B. Purrington

22 K. Gough

6 C. Mola

7 S. Forde

24 T. Leigh

19 E. Harrison

29 F. Cavegn

Coach · Steve Evans

Substitutes

32 · C. Binns

3 · J. Sparkes

5 · A. Kilgour

28 · A. Appiah

21 · R. Smallwood

8 · R. Russell-Denny

9 · J. Quigley

Barnet

4-2-3-1

13 M. Cox

5 A. Senior

4 D. Collinge

6 Z. Williams

3 R. Crichlow

22 O. Gallagher

23 J. Reeves

7 T. Knowles

8 C. Lakin

11 I. Kanu

20 K. Tshimanga

Coach · Dean Brennan

Substitutes

36 · A. Haralambous

30 · M. Kenlock

25 · N. Tavares

14 · B. Comley

17 · D. Ajayi

37 · A. Liwala

9 · J. Maskell

Our number · barnet winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market33%

Us40%

~~Market~~33%

We make Barnet a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · barnet win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 31% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bristol Rovers win	36%	41%	−5
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Barnet win	40%	33%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	56%	56%	+1
Both teams to score	59%	60%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	35%	−1
Bristol Rovers or draw	60%	67%	−7
Bristol Rovers clean sheet	22%	–	–
Barnet clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.5 7.9 6.0 3.1 1 7.4 11.3 8.5 4.3 2 5.4 8.0 6.0 3.1 3 2.6 3.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bristol Rovers down, Barnet across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,887 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bristol Rovers at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Barnet away: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Bristol Rovers, 1.52 for Barnet. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BRI 0–2 BAR · BAR 4–0 BRI

Form · last six in League Two

BRISTOL ROVERS

WWLLWL2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–3

BARNET

WDDDWW3–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	9	+3	16
2	Barnet	7	+7	15
3	Crewe	9	+4	15
4	Cheltenham	9	+2	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	0	15
6	York	8	+6	14
7	Walsall	8	+6	14
8	Chesterfield	9	+3	14
9	Grimsby	9	+3	13
10	Gillingham	9	+2	13
11	Rochdale	9	−1	13
12	Tranmere	9	0	11
13	Swindon Town	9	−4	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	−5	11
15	Newport County	9	0	10
16	Accrington ST	9	−1	10
17	Rotherham	9	−1	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	−1	10
19	Colchester	8	−2	10
20	Exeter City	9	−1	9
21	Oldham	8	−4	7
22	Northampton	7	−3	6
23	Port Vale	7	−6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	−7	4