Barnet v Swindon Town prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Barnet 1–3 Swindon Town BARNET WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barnet win~~53%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.909

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.152

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barnet win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Barnet 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–24
1′KICK-OFF Barnet v Swindon Town
8′A goal for Swindon Town on 8′. 0–0 · 52–24–24
9′We said Barnet at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–23–48
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Barnet 0–1 Swindon Town · Mitchell Clark
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Barnet win: 53% at kick-off, 29% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Swindon Town win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Barnet win 52%)
23′We said Barnet at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–51
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Barnet win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 22–25–53
33′Barnet have had 9 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 21–26–54
36′35′: Aaron Drinan on the scoresheet for Swindon Town. 0–1 · 20–26–55
36′We said Barnet at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–13–80
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Barnet 0–2 Swindon Town · Aaron Drinan
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Barnet win: 53% at kick-off, 7% now
37′We said Barnet at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–3 · 2–5–94
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Barnet 0–3 Swindon Town
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Barnet win: 53% at kick-off, 2% now
38′Swindon Town ahead on 37′ through Aaron Drinan. 0–3. 0–3 · 2–5–94
43′12 shots for Barnet, 6 the other way, and they still trail 0–3. 0–3 · 1–4–95
45′HALF-TIME Barnet 0–3 Swindon Town
45′SECOND HALF Barnet 0–3 Swindon Town
52′16 shots for Barnet, 10 the other way, and they still trail 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–97
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Swindon Town · On: Louis Millard · Off: Joe Snowdon
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Barnet · On: Tom Knowles · Off: Nikola Tavares
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Barnet · On: Jake Reeves · Off: Nnamdi Ofoborh
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Swindon Town · On: Tom Nichols · Off: Jack Thomson
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Swindon Town · On: James Debayo · Off: Matthew Virtue-Thick
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Barnet · On: Damola Ajayi · Off: Oisin Gallagher
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Swindon Town · On: antwoine hackford · Off: Aaron Drinan
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Swindon Town · On: James Ball · Off: S. Inwood
85′Barnet have had 21 attempts to 11 and it is still 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Barnet · On: Myles Kenlock · Off: Idris Kanu
90′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Barnet 1–3 Swindon Town
91′Kabongo Tshimanga scores for Barnet on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Louis Millard · Swindon Town
FTFULL TIME Barnet 1–3 Swindon Town
FTBarnet 1–3 Swindon Town · Barnet win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barnet are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barnet 53%, draw 22%, Swindon Town 24%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Barnet v Swindon TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Barnet win53%

Draw22%

Swindon Town win24%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueThe Hive Stadium

Line-ups

Barnet

4-2-3-1

Swindon Town

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barnet

Swindon Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Barnet	9	+10	21
18	Swindon Town	11	−5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Barnet

4-2-3-1

13 M. Cox

5 A. Senior

4 D. Collinge

6 Z. Williams

25 N. Tavares

22 O. Gallagher

10 N. Ofoborh

14 B. Comley

8 C. Lakin

11 I. Kanu

20 K. Tshimanga

Coach · Dean Brennan

Substitutes

17 · D. Ajayi

30 · M. Kenlock

36 · Anthony Haralambous

7 · T. Knowles

23 · J. Reeves

Swindon Town

3-4-2-1

1 C. Ripley

21 K. Majekodunmi

5 S. Negru

16 S. Inwood

2 M. Clark

27 A. Munda

25 J. Thomson

34 B. Kirkman

24 M. Virtue-Thick

19 J. Snowdon

23 A. Drinan

Coach · Ian Holloway

Substitutes

7 · T. Nichols

39 · L. Millard

15 · J. Hungbo

29 · A. Hackford

18 · J. Debayo

6 · J. Ball

12 · Lewis Moore Ward

Our number · barnet winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

53% The market64%

Us53%

~~Market~~64%

We make Barnet a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barnet v Swindon Town~~1.92 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 1 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 12~~2 v 18

~~The market · Barnet win~~64% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barnet win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barnet win	53%	64%	−11
Draw	22%	21%	+1
Swindon Town win	24%	16%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	60%	63%	−3
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	42%	−4
Barnet or draw	76%	84%	−8
Barnet clean sheet	30%	–	–
Swindon Town clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.6 5.3 3.3 1 8.3 10.2 6.1 2.5 2 8.0 9.5 5.8 2.4 3 5.1 6.1 3.7 4 2.5 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barnet down, Swindon Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League Two matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barnet at home: 3.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Swindon Town away: 0.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Barnet, 1.22 for Swindon Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAR 1–2 SWI · SWI 0–2 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 1 Sept

BARNET

DDWWWW1–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–1

SWINDON TOWN

LLDLLD0–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	11	+6	22
2	Barnet	9	+10	21
3	Crewe	11	+6	21
4	York	10	+6	16
5	Walsall	10	+6	16
6	Gillingham	11	+3	16
7	Chesterfield	11	+2	15
8	Cheltenham	11	−3	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	−3	15
10	Accrington ST	11	+1	14
11	Newport County	11	+1	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	+1	14
13	Rochdale	11	−2	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	−5	14
15	Grimsby	11	0	13
16	Exeter City	11	0	13
17	Tranmere	11	−1	12
18	Swindon Town	11	−5	12
19	Oldham	10	−1	11
20	Colchester	10	−3	11
21	Port Vale	9	−4	11
22	Northampton	9	−1	10
23	Rotherham	11	−6	10
24	Crawley Town	9	−8	5