Barnet v Oldham prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Barnet 1–1 Oldham BARNET WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Barnet win~~50%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.888

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.923

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barnet win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Barnet 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
1′KICK-OFF Barnet v Oldham
21′We said Barnet at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–9
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Barnet 1–0 Oldham
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Barnet win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
23′Kabongo Tshimanga scores for Barnet on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
45′HALF-TIME Barnet 1–0 Oldham
45′SECOND HALF Barnet 1–0 Oldham
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Barnet · On: Tom Knowles · Off: Damola Ajayi
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Oldham · On: Kane drummond · Off: Keenan Appiah-Forson
58′We said Barnet at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Barnet win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Barnet · On: Nnamdi Ofoborh · Off: Charlie Lakin
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Barnet · On: Isiah Noel Williams · Off: Jake Reeves
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Isiah Noel Williams · Barnet
71′Barnet are down to ten from 70′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 84–14–2
71′🟥 RED CARD · 70' Isiah Noel Williams · Barnet
72′We said Barnet at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
80′We said Barnet at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Barnet win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Oldham · On: Josh Hawkes · Off: Favour fawunmi
87′We said Barnet at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Mike·Fondop-Talum · Oldham
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Barnet · On: Nikola Tavares · Off: Tom Knowles
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Barnet · On: Brandon Comley · Off: Idris Kanu
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Oldham · On: Noah Chilvers · Off: Kai Payne
95′We said Barnet at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–97–1
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Barnet 1–1 Oldham
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+5' Barnet win: 50% at kick-off, 2% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Barnet win 99%)
FTFULL TIME Barnet 1–1 Oldham
FTBarnet 1–1 Oldham · Barnet win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barnet are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barnet 50%, draw 24%, Oldham 26%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Barnet v OldhamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Barnet win50%

Draw24%

Oldham win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueThe Hive Stadium

Line-ups

Barnet

4-2-3-1

Oldham

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barnet

Oldham

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Barnet	10	+8	21
21	Oldham	11	−4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Barnet

4-2-3-1

13 M. Cox

5 A. Senior

4 D. Collinge

6 Z. Williams

3 R. Crichlow-Noble

22 O. Gallagher

23 J. Reeves

17 D. Ajayi

8 C. Lakin

11 I. Kanu

20 K. Tshimanga

Coach · Dean Brennan

Substitutes

14 · B. Comley

7 · T. Knowles

10 · N. Ofoborh

18 · K. Smith

25 · N. Tavares

36 · Anthony Haralambous

32 · Isiah Noel Williams

Oldham

4-2-3-1

1 M. Hudson

16 W. Sutton

5 D. Daniels

6 E. Monthe

3 J. Robson

8 O. Norburn

7 K. Appiah-Forson

17 F. Fawunmi

26 Kai Payne

10 C. Kavanagh

9 M. Fondop-Talum

Coach · M. Mellon

Substitutes

14 · N. Chilvers

15 · K. Drummond

21 · J. Hawkes

4 · T. Pett

24 · L. Temple

22 · Wilson Wilson

2 · G. Scott-Morriss

Our number · barnet winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 03:44 · locked at kick-off

50% The market55%

Us50%

~~Market~~55%

We make Barnet a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barnet v Oldham~~1.69 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 11~~2 v 21

~~The market · Barnet win~~55% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barnet win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barnet win	50%	55%	−5
Draw	24%	24%	0
Oldham win	26%	21%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
Barnet or draw	74%	79%	−5
Barnet clean sheet	32%	–	–
Oldham clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.2 6.7 3.9 1 9.8 11.4 6.4 2.5 2 8.3 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 4.7 5.3 3.0 4 2.0 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barnet down, Oldham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,923 League Two matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barnet at home: 2.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Oldham away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Barnet, 1.14 for Oldham. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BAR 3–2 OLD · OLD 1–1 BAR · OLD 0–3 BAR · BAR 0–0 OLD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept

BARNET

DWWWWL3–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–3

OLDHAM

LLLDWL1–2 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	10	+8	21
3	Crewe	12	+4	21
4	Walsall	11	+9	19
5	Cheltenham	12	−1	18
6	York	11	+6	17
7	Gillingham	12	+3	17
8	Shrewsbury	12	−4	17
9	Chesterfield	12	+2	16
10	Exeter City	12	+2	16
11	Accrington ST	12	+1	15
12	Newport County	12	+1	15
13	Tranmere	12	0	15
14	Rochdale	12	−2	15
15	Swindon Town	12	−3	15
16	Bristol Rovers	12	−4	15
17	Grimsby	12	0	14
18	Fleetwood Town	12	−1	14
19	Colchester	11	−3	12
20	Port Vale	10	−4	12
21	Oldham	11	−4	11
22	Rotherham	12	−6	11
23	Northampton	10	−2	10
24	Crawley Town	10	−9	5