Accrington ST v Northampton prediction · League Two

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Accrington STDrawNorthampton

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Accrington ST 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Accrington ST just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Accrington ST 36%, draw 30%, Northampton 34%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Accrington ST v NorthamptonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Accrington ST win36%

Draw30%

Northampton win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueThe Wham Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Accrington ST

Northampton

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Accrington ST	13	+6	18
19	Northampton	11	0	13

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Ex-Arsenal director of football Edu to advise NorthamptonBBC Sport · 23 Oct 11:27 · Northampton

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · accrington st winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Accrington ST a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Accrington ST v Northampton~~1.07 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 13~~9 v 19

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Accrington ST win	36%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Northampton win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Accrington ST or draw	66%	–	–
Accrington ST clean sheet	36%	–	–
Northampton clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 13.0 12.5 6.5 2.3 1 13.0 13.4 6.7 2.3 2 7.0 7.0 3.6 3 2.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Accrington ST down, Northampton across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,934 League Two matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Accrington ST at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Northampton away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Accrington ST, 1.02 for Northampton. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 12 Sept

ACCRINGTON ST

DWDWDW1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 5–0

NORTHAMPTON

LLDWLW0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salford City	12	+7	25
2	Barnet	11	+8	22
3	Cheltenham	13	0	21
4	Crewe	13	0	21
5	York	12	+8	20
6	Walsall	11	+9	19
7	Chesterfield	13	+6	19
8	Exeter City	13	+3	19
9	Accrington ST	13	+6	18
10	Shrewsbury	13	−4	18
11	Grimsby	13	+3	17
12	Gillingham	13	0	17
13	Tranmere	13	0	16
14	Swindon Town	13	−3	16
15	Bristol Rovers	13	−4	16
16	Newport County	13	0	15
17	Rochdale	13	−7	15
18	Fleetwood Town	13	−2	14
19	Northampton	11	0	13
20	Oldham	12	−4	12
21	Colchester	12	−5	12
22	Rotherham	13	−6	12
23	Port Vale	11	−6	12
24	Crawley Town	11	−9	6