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Accrington ST v Gillingham
Accrington ST
GillinghamLeague Two · SAT 17 OCT · The Crown Ground
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Accrington ST win at 41%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Accrington ST 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
- 1′KICK-OFF Accrington ST v Gillingham
- 8′Little has changed for our model: Accrington ST 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
- 8′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Devon matthews · Accrington ST
- 12′We said Accrington ST at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
- 12′Stefan Mols scores for Accrington ST on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–11
- 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Accrington ST 1–0 Gillingham
- 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Accrington ST win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
- 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Accrington ST win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
- 21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Donald Love · Accrington ST
- 23′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Harry Waldock · Gillingham
- 29′29′: Josh Woods on the scoresheet for Accrington ST. 1–0 · 72–20–8
- 29′We said Accrington ST at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–7–2
- 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Accrington ST 2–0 Gillingham · Josh Woods
- 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Accrington ST win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
- 31′28′: Josh Woods on the scoresheet for Accrington ST, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
- 32′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 72–20–8
- 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Accrington ST 2–1 Gillingham
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Accrington ST win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
- 33′Gillingham pull one back on 31′ through an own goal by Devon matthews. 2–1. 2–1 · 73–20–8
- 35′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Armani Little · Gillingham
- 44′We said Accrington ST at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
- 45′HALF-TIME Accrington ST 2–1 Gillingham
- 46′SECOND HALF Accrington ST 2–1 Gillingham
- 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Gillingham · On: Jack Daley · Off: Logan Dobbs
- 55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Gillingham · On: Ethan·Coleman · Off: Harry Waldock
- 55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Gillingham · On: Tom Eaves · Off: Armani Little
- 62′We said Accrington ST at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Accrington ST win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
- 67′We said Accrington ST at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
- 67′Josh Woods scores for Accrington ST on 66′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
- 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Accrington ST 3–1 Gillingham
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Accrington ST win: 41% at kick-off, 98% now
- 68′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gillingham · On: Garath McCleary · Off: Andy Smith
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gillingham · On: Bradley Dack · Off: Lamin Sillah
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Accrington ST · On: Conor Grant · Off: Charlie Warren
- 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Ronan Chapman Hale · Gillingham
- 81′We said Accrington ST at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 90′3–1 at the end. Our 41% on Accrington ST comes in. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Accrington ST 3–1 Gillingham
- FTAccrington ST 3–1 Gillingham · Accrington ST win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassAccrington ST are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Accrington ST 41%, draw 28%, Gillingham 31%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Accrington ST win41%
Gillingham win31%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueThe Crown Ground
Match timeline
All events
Accrington STMIN
GillinghamEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Accrington ST
3-4-1-2
Gillingham
3-4-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Accrington ST
Gillingham
Last match: 10 Oct · the English League Two
Last match: 13 Oct · EFL Trophy
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Accrington ST
3-4-1-2
1 L. Moulden
2 D. Love
17 D. Matthews
22 J. Anderson
38 C. O'Brien
16 A. Borland
14 S. Mols
33 D. Tutonda
39 J. Woods
23 T. Walton
30 C. Warren
Coach · John Doolan
Substitutes
21 · J. Rogerson
4 · T. Moore
25 · J. Smith
8 · C. Grant
3 · O. Smith
20 · C. Brown
Gillingham
3-4-3
1 O. Wright
5 A. Smith
19 O. Beckles
26 L. Dobbs
22 N. Freeman
14 R. McKenzie
8 A. Little
16 J. Brophy
24 H. Waldock
11 L. Sillah
10 R. Hale
Coach · Gareth Ainsworth
Substitutes
40 · R. Luthra
20 · J. Daley
23 · B. Dack
6 · E. Coleman
39 · T. Eaves
12 · G. McCleary
18 · S. Kendall
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Accrington ST
3-4-1-2
1 L. Moulden
2 D. Love
17 D. Matthews
22 J. Anderson
38 C. O'Brien
16 A. Borland
14 S. Mols
33 D. Tutonda
39 J. Woods
23 T. Walton
30 C. Warren
Coach · John Doolan
Substitutes
21 · J. Rogerson
4 · T. Moore
25 · J. Smith
8 · C. Grant
3 · O. Smith
20 · C. Brown
Gillingham
3-4-3
1 O. Wright
5 A. Smith
19 O. Beckles
26 L. Dobbs
22 N. Freeman
14 R. McKenzie
8 A. Little
16 J. Brophy
24 H. Waldock
11 L. Sillah
10 R. Hale
Coach · Gareth Ainsworth
Substitutes
40 · R. Luthra
20 · J. Daley
23 · B. Dack
6 · E. Coleman
39 · T. Eaves
12 · G. McCleary
18 · S. Kendall
We make Accrington ST a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST win | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | +1 |
| Gillingham win | 31% | 32% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 48% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 27% | −6 |
| Accrington ST or draw | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Accrington ST clean sheet | 35% | – | – |
| Gillingham clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
8 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept
ACCRINGTON ST
GILLINGHAM
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | −2 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | −1 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | −1 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | −1 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | −5 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | −6 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | −3 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | −4 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | −4 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | −5 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | −7 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Salford City
Barnet
Crewe
York
Walsall
Chesterfield
Cheltenham
Bristol Rovers
Rochdale
Grimsby
Newport County
Tranmere
Exeter City
Fleetwood Town
Swindon Town
Shrewsbury
Colchester
Rotherham
Oldham
Port Vale
Northampton
Crawley Town