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Model 1.2

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Accrington ST v Gillingham

Accrington ST
3–1Full time
Gillingham

League Two · SAT 17 OCT · The Crown Ground

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Accrington ST 3–1 Gillingham ACCRINGTON ST WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Accrington ST win41%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.515
The market’s Brier score0.525

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Accrington ST win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Accrington ST 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Accrington ST v Gillingham
  4. 8′Little has changed for our model: Accrington ST 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
  5. 8′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Devon matthews · Accrington ST
  6. 12′We said Accrington ST at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
  7. 12′Stefan Mols scores for Accrington ST on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–11
  8. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Accrington ST 1–0 Gillingham
  9. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Accrington ST win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
  10. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Accrington ST win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
  11. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Donald Love · Accrington ST
  12. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Harry Waldock · Gillingham
  13. 29′29′: Josh Woods on the scoresheet for Accrington ST. 1–0 · 72–20–8
  14. 29′We said Accrington ST at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–7–2
  15. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Accrington ST 2–0 Gillingham · Josh Woods
  16. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Accrington ST win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
  17. 31′28′: Josh Woods on the scoresheet for Accrington ST, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  18. 32′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 72–20–8
  19. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Accrington ST 2–1 Gillingham
  20. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Accrington ST win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
  21. 33′Gillingham pull one back on 31′ through an own goal by Devon matthews. 2–1. 2–1 · 73–20–8
  22. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Armani Little · Gillingham
  23. 44′We said Accrington ST at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
  24. 45′HALF-TIME Accrington ST 2–1 Gillingham
  25. 46′SECOND HALF Accrington ST 2–1 Gillingham
  26. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Gillingham · On: Jack Daley · Off: Logan Dobbs
  27. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Gillingham · On: Ethan·Coleman · Off: Harry Waldock
  28. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Gillingham · On: Tom Eaves · Off: Armani Little
  29. 62′We said Accrington ST at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  30. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Accrington ST win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
  31. 67′We said Accrington ST at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  32. 67′Josh Woods scores for Accrington ST on 66′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  33. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Accrington ST 3–1 Gillingham
  34. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Accrington ST win: 41% at kick-off, 98% now
  35. 68′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  36. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gillingham · On: Garath McCleary · Off: Andy Smith
  37. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gillingham · On: Bradley Dack · Off: Lamin Sillah
  38. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Accrington ST · On: Conor Grant · Off: Charlie Warren
  39. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Ronan Chapman Hale · Gillingham
  40. 81′We said Accrington ST at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  41. 90′3–1 at the end. Our 41% on Accrington ST comes in. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  42. FTFULL TIME Accrington ST 3–1 Gillingham
  43. FTAccrington ST 3–1 Gillingham · Accrington ST win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Accrington ST are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Accrington ST 41%, draw 28%, Gillingham 31%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Accrington ST v GillinghamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Accrington ST win41%
Draw28%
Gillingham win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueThe Crown Ground

Line-ups

Accrington ST

3-4-1-2

Gillingham

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Accrington ST

Gillingham

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League Two

Last match: 13 Oct · EFL Trophy

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Gillingham10+516
15Accrington ST10−111

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Accrington ST

3-4-1-2

1 L. Moulden

2 D. Love

17 D. Matthews

22 J. Anderson

38 C. O'Brien

16 A. Borland

14 S. Mols

33 D. Tutonda

39 J. Woods

23 T. Walton

30 C. Warren

Coach · John Doolan

Substitutes

21 · J. Rogerson

4 · T. Moore

25 · J. Smith

8 · C. Grant

3 · O. Smith

20 · C. Brown

Gillingham

3-4-3

1 O. Wright

5 A. Smith

19 O. Beckles

26 L. Dobbs

22 N. Freeman

14 R. McKenzie

8 A. Little

16 J. Brophy

24 H. Waldock

11 L. Sillah

10 R. Hale

Coach · Gareth Ainsworth

Substitutes

40 · R. Luthra

20 · J. Daley

23 · B. Dack

6 · E. Coleman

39 · T. Eaves

12 · G. McCleary

18 · S. Kendall

Our number · accrington st winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
41% The market41%
Us41%
Market41%

We make Accrington ST a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Accrington ST v Gillingham1.29 – 1.07
Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 SeptW2 D3 L1 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 11 v 1615 v 4
The market · Accrington ST win41% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 11 OCT 03:5917 OCT 14:00
Our probability · Accrington ST win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Accrington ST win41%41%0
Draw28%27%+1
Gillingham win31%32%−1
Over 2.5 goals42%48%−6
Both teams to score47%53%−6
Over 1.5 goals68%71%−3
Over 3.5 goals21%27%−6
Accrington ST or draw69%68%+1
Accrington ST clean sheet35%––
Gillingham clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 9.8 10.0 5.4 1 12.1 13.0 6.9 2.5 2 7.9 8.3 4.4 3 3.4 3.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Accrington ST down, Gillingham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.53 of 8
Both scored5 of 8
Last meetingsGIL 2–0 ACC · ACC 1–1 GIL · ACC 1–1 GIL · GIL 1–2 ACC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept

ACCRINGTON ST

WLDDWD3–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

GILLINGHAM

WWWLDW4–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Salford City10+519
2Barnet8+918
3Crewe10+518
4Gillingham10+516
5York9+615
6Walsall9+615
7Chesterfield10+315
8Cheltenham10015
9Bristol Rovers10−215
10Rochdale10−114
11Grimsby10+213
12Newport County10+113
13Tranmere10012
14Exeter City10012
15Accrington ST10−111
16Fleetwood Town10−111
17Swindon Town10−511
18Shrewsbury10−611
19Colchester9−310
20Rotherham10−410
21Oldham9−48
22Port Vale8−58
23Northampton8−37
24Crawley Town8−75

The competition's standings before kick-off.