Wycombe v Notts County prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Wycombe 2–0 Notts County WYCOMBE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wycombe win~~49%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.389

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.394

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wycombe win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Wycombe was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
1′KICK-OFF Wycombe v Notts County
8′Much as we predicted: Wycombe was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Wycombe
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Wycombe win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Wycombe 1–0 Notts County
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Wycombe win: 49% at kick-off, 77% now
45′We published Wycombe at 49%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–6
45′HALF-TIME Wycombe 1–0 Notts County
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–5
46′SECOND HALF Wycombe 1–0 Notts County
47′Wycombe ahead on 44′ through Cauley Woodrow. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–5
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Notts County · On: Ishé Samuels-Smith · Off: Lucas Ness
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Wycombe win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
58′We published Wycombe at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Notts County · On: Scott Robertson · Off: Max Sanders
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Notts County · On: Conor·Grant · Off: Jack Evans
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Notts County · On: D. Kanu · Off: lee ndlovu
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Notts County · On: Matt Palmer · Off: Rory Finneran
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Wycombe · On: Junior Quitirna · Off: Jamie Mullins
71′We published Wycombe at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Scott Robertson · Notts County
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Wycombe win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
80′We published Wycombe at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Wycombe · On: Ewan Henderson · Off: Cauley Woodrow
86′We published Wycombe at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′Fred Onyedinma scores for Wycombe on 86′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 86' Wycombe 2–0 Notts County · Fred Onyedinma (assist Daniel Harvie)
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Wycombe win: 49% at kick-off, over 99% now
89′We published Wycombe at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Wycombe · On: Luke Leahy · Off: Caolan Boyd-Munce
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' James Gibbons · Notts County
FTFULL TIME Wycombe 2–0 Notts County
FTWycombe 2–0 Notts County · Wycombe win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wycombe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wycombe 49%, draw 25%, Notts County 26%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Wycombe v Notts CountyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wycombe win49%

Draw25%

Notts County win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAdams Park

Line-ups

Wycombe

4-2-3-1

Notts County

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wycombe

Notts County

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League One

Last match: 13 Oct · EFL Trophy

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Wycombe	9	−6	10
22	Notts County	8	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wycombe

4-2-3-1

23 C. Hazard

2 J. Grimmer

26 C. Taylor

45 A. Hagelskjaer

3 D. Harvie

4 J. Scowen

8 C. Boyd-Munce

44 F. Onyedinma

12 C. Woodrow

21 J. Mullins

15 J. Wareham

Coach · Tom Hounsell

Substitutes

33 · J. Wildsmith

10 · L. Leahy

17 · D. Casey

5 · A. Morley

20 · E. Henderson

7 · A. Quitirna

11 · S. Thomas

Notts County

3-4-2-1

1 J. Belshaw

12 L. Ness

3 R. McDonald

4 J. Bedeau

2 J. Gibbons

27 R. Finneran

6 M. H. Sanders

25 N. Tsaroulla

7 C. Roberts

15 J. Evans

39 L. Ndlovu

Coach · Martin Paterson

Substitutes

26 · I. Samuels-Smith

18 · M. Palmer

17 · Q. Kouhyar

20 · S. Robertson

11 · C. Grant

14 · D. Lipsiuc

9 · D. Kanu

Our number · wycombe winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market49%

Us49%

~~Market~~49%

We make Wycombe a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wycombe v Notts County~~1.62 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~15 v 22

~~The market · Wycombe win~~49% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wycombe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wycombe win	49%	49%	0
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Notts County win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	52%	−1
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
Wycombe or draw	74%	75%	−1
Wycombe clean sheet	34%	–	–
Notts County clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.8 7.4 4.1 1 10.7 11.6 6.4 2.4 2 8.5 9.2 5.1 3 4.6 5.0 2.8 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wycombe down, Notts County across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,888 League One matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Wycombe at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Notts County away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Wycombe, 1.11 for Notts County. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

WYCOMBE

LDWWDL1–2 · 3–3 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–4

NOTTS COUNTY

WDDLLL2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	10	+6	19
2	Bradford	9	+3	17
3	Stockport County	9	+9	16
4	Huddersfield	9	+7	16
5	Cambridge United	9	+3	16
6	Reading	9	+11	15
7	Oxford United	8	+7	15
8	Sheffield Wednesday	8	+7	15
9	Stevenage	8	+4	12
10	Burton Albion	10	−2	12
11	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
12	AFC Wimbledon	9	−3	12
13	Leyton Orient	9	+2	11
14	Luton	8	+1	11
15	Wycombe	9	−6	10
16	Doncaster	8	0	9
17	Leicester	8	−4	9
18	Blackpool	8	−1	8
19	Barnsley	8	−7	8
20	Peterborough	9	−7	8
21	Bromley	8	−11	8
22	Notts County	8	−3	7
23	Milton Keynes Dons	8	−6	6
24	Wigan	8	−8	4