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Wycombe v Luton

Wycombe

1–4Full time

Luton

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Adams Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Wycombe 1–4 Luton WYCOMBE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wycombe win~~46%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.760

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.579

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wycombe win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Wycombe was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
1′KICK-OFF Wycombe v Luton
15′Luton ahead on 16′ through Kasey Palmer. 0–0. 0–0 · 44–27–29
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Wycombe 0–1 Luton · Kasey Palmer
20′We said Wycombe at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–23–57
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Wycombe win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Luton win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Wycombe win 20%)
23′We said Wycombe at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
30′Jamie Donley scores for Luton on 27′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 5–12–83
30′⚽ GOAL · 27' Wycombe 0–2 Luton · Jamie Donley (assist Nahki Wells)
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Wycombe win: 46% at kick-off, 5% now
36′We said Wycombe at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Kal Naismith · Luton
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Wycombe · On: Cauley Woodrow · Off: Ewan Henderson
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Wycombe · On: Jack Grimmer · Off: S. Parker
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Luton · On: Joseph Johnson · Off: Kal Naismith
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Wycombe 0–3 Luton · Nahki Wells (assist Jordan Clark)
46′SECOND HALF Wycombe 0–3 Luton
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Wycombe · On: Malik Mothersille · Off: Steve Cook
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Wycombe · On: Caolan Boyd-Munce · Off: Josh Scowen
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Luton · On: Isaiah Jones · Off: George Johnston
60′⚽ GOAL · 16' Wycombe 0–3 Luton · Kasey Palmer (assist Jamie Donley)
60′⚽ GOAL · 27' Wycombe 0–3 Luton · Jamie Donley (assist Nahki Wells)
60′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Kal Naismith · Luton
60′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Wycombe · On: Cauley Woodrow · Off: Ewan Henderson
60′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Wycombe · On: Jack Grimmer · Off: S. Parker
60′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Luton · On: Joseph Johnson · Off: Kal Naismith
60′⚽ GOAL · 46' Wycombe 0–3 Luton · Nahki Wells (assist Jordan Clark)
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Wycombe · On: Malik Mothersille · Off: Steve Cook
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Wycombe · On: Caolan Boyd-Munce · Off: Josh Scowen
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Luton · On: Isaiah Jones · Off: George Johnston
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Luton · On: Devante Cole · Off: Nahki Wells
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Luton · On: Jake Richards · Off: Kasey Palmer
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Wycombe · On: Emre Tezgel · Off: Jayden Wareham
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Liam Walsh · Luton
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Luton · On: E. Lawrence · Off: Tudor Mendel-Idowu
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Wycombe 0–3 Luton · Devante Cole
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Wycombe 0–4 Luton · Devante Cole
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Wycombe 1–4 Luton · Devante Cole
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Wycombe 1–4 Luton · Jack Grimmer
FTFULL TIME Wycombe 1–4 Luton
FTWycombe 1–4 Luton · Wycombe win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Wycombe win46%

Draw24%

Luton win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Luton Town’s 2020 group have “turned a corner” but one problem could undo it allFootball League World · 7 hours ago · Luton

How a folk band, football club and Fifa 11 came together for unlikely anthemBBC Sport · 2 days ago · Wycombe, Wanderers

‘Brighton are the world’s most forward-thinking club’: Jason McCarthy on retiring at 29 to coachThe Guardian · 4 days ago · Brighton, Wycombe

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Adams Park

Referee · Scott Oldham

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Wycombe

3-1-4-2

23 C. Hazard

17 D. Casey

27 S. Cook

26 C. Taylor

4 J. Scowen

22 S. Parker

5 A. Morley

20 E. Henderson

3 D. Harvie

44 F. Onyedinma

15 J. Wareham

Coach · Tom Hounsell

Substitutes

33 · J. Wildsmith

10 · L. Leahy

2 · J. Grimmer

8 · C. Boyd-Munce

19 · E. Tezgel

12 · C. Woodrow

29 · M. Mothersille

Luton

4-1-4-1

1 J. Shea

2 H. Odoffin

5 M. Andersen

6 G. Johnston

3 K. Naismith

8 L. Walsh

17 T. Mendel-Idowu

18 J. Clark

10 J. Donley

45 K. Palmer

21 N. Wells

Coach · Jack Wilshere

Substitutes

24 · J. Keeley

12 · J. Johnson

11 · E. Lawrence

7 · J. Richards

44 · D. Cole

25 · I. Jones

22 · H. Fox

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Wycombe

3-1-4-2

23 C. Hazard

17 D. Casey

27 S. Cook

26 C. Taylor

4 J. Scowen

22 S. Parker

5 A. Morley

20 E. Henderson

3 D. Harvie

44 F. Onyedinma

15 J. Wareham

Coach · Tom Hounsell

Substitutes

33 · J. Wildsmith

10 · L. Leahy

2 · J. Grimmer

8 · C. Boyd-Munce

19 · E. Tezgel

12 · C. Woodrow

29 · M. Mothersille

Luton

4-1-4-1

1 J. Shea

2 H. Odoffin

5 M. Andersen

6 G. Johnston

3 K. Naismith

8 L. Walsh

17 T. Mendel-Idowu

18 J. Clark

10 J. Donley

45 K. Palmer

21 N. Wells

Coach · Jack Wilshere

Substitutes

24 · J. Keeley

12 · J. Johnson

11 · E. Lawrence

7 · J. Richards

44 · D. Cole

25 · I. Jones

22 · H. Fox

Our number · wycombe winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

46% The market36%

Us46%

~~Market~~36%

We make Wycombe a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wycombe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wycombe win	46%	36%	+11
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Luton win	30%	38%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	57%	57%	0
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	37%	−3
Wycombe or draw	70%	62%	+8
Wycombe clean sheet	28%	–	–
Luton clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.3 6.7 4.4 1 8.6 11.0 7.1 3.1 2 7.1 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 4.0 5.1 3.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wycombe down, Luton across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,875 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wycombe at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Luton away: 2.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Wycombe, 1.30 for Luton. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WYC 1–2 LUT · LUT 4–0 WYC

Form · last six in League One

WYCOMBE

LLDWWD1–5 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–2

LUTON

DLWDLL2–2 · 2–5 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	9	+5	16
2	Bradford	8	+3	16
3	Huddersfield	8	+7	15
4	Sheffield Wednesday	7	+7	14
5	Stockport County	8	+7	13
6	Cambridge United	8	+2	13
7	Reading	8	+7	12
8	Burton Albion	9	−1	12
9	AFC Wimbledon	8	−2	12
10	Oxford United	6	+6	11
11	Leyton Orient	8	+2	10
12	Wycombe	8	−3	10
13	Stevenage	7	+3	9
14	Leicester	7	−2	9
15	Blackpool	7	0	8
16	Luton	7	−2	8
17	Mansfield Town	7	−3	8
18	Barnsley	7	−5	8
19	Bromley	7	−10	8
20	Notts County	7	−2	7
21	Doncaster	7	−1	6
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	−2	6
23	Peterborough	8	−9	5
24	Wigan	7	−7	4