Wigan v Reading prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Wigan 1–0 Reading READING WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Reading win~~40%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.677

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.885

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Reading win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Reading 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 33–27–40
1′KICK-OFF Wigan v Reading
8′Little has changed for our model: Reading 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Andy Rinomhota · Reading
30′Wigan have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 30–34–35
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Reading win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Wigan 0–0 Reading
45′SECOND HALF Wigan 0–0 Reading
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Reading win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Charlie Gray · Wigan
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 27–41–32
55′We said Reading at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 25–47–28
64′We said Reading at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Wigan · On: Christian Saydee · Off: Reggie Walsh
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Reading win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
71′We said Reading at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Wigan 1–0 Reading
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Reading win: 40% at kick-off, 3% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Wigan win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
72′71′: Scott Hogan on the scoresheet for Wigan, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–2
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' James Carragher · Wigan
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Haydon Roberts · Reading
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Reading · On: Jacob Brown · Off: Jamie Reid
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Reading · On: Charlie Savage · Off: Andy Rinomhota
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wigan · On: Jon Mellish · Off: Bradley Burrowes
79′16 shots for Reading, 10 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 87–12–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wigan · On: Sonny Tufail Perkins · Off: Scott Hogan
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Reading win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Reading · On: Randell Williams · Off: Haydon Roberts
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Wigan · On: Fraser Murray · Off: Connor Barrett
90′1–0 at the end. Our 40% on Reading misses, and the record keeps it. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Wigan 1–0 Reading
FTWigan 1–0 Reading · Reading win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Reading are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wigan 33%, draw 27%, Reading 40%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Wigan v ReadingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wigan win33%

Draw27%

Reading win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueDW Stadium

Line-ups

Wigan

4-4-1-1

Reading

4-1-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wigan

Reading

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League One

Last match: 13 Oct · EFL Trophy

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Reading	9	+11	15
24	Wigan	8	−8	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wigan

4-4-1-1

41 J. Whitworth

4 J. Chilokoa-Mullen

23 J. Carragher

5 F. Burns

16 A. Harris

2 C. Barrett

18 C. Gray

6 J. Weir

27 B. Burrowes

10 R. Walsh

25 S. Hogan

Coach · Gary Caldwell

Substitutes

1 · J. Walsh

22 · J. Mellish

7 · F. Murray

19 · C. Sze

17 · A. Higgins

38 · C. Saydee

9 · S. Perkins

Reading

4-1-3-2

1 J. Pereira

2 U. Godwin-Malife

15 P. O'Connor

3 J. R. Dorsett A.

5 H. Roberts

4 A. Rinomhota

19 K. Lisbie

10 L. Wing

32 P. Lane

28 J. Stokes

9 J. Reid

Coach · Leam Richardson

Substitutes

25 · J. Stevens

20 · J. Knight

11 · D. Kyerewaa

8 · C. Savage

6 · L. Fraser

14 · R. Williams

18 · J. Brown

Our number · reading winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market50%

Us40%

~~Market~~50%

We make Reading a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wigan v Reading~~1.18 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 15~~24 v 6

~~The market · Reading win~~50% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Reading win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wigan win	33%	24%	+9
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Reading win	40%	50%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	46%	56%	−10
Both teams to score	50%	58%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	71%	78%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	24%	36%	−12
Wigan or draw	60%	50%	+10
Wigan clean sheet	27%	–	–
Reading clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.4 10.9 7.1 3.2 1 9.7 12.6 8.3 3.7 2 5.7 7.4 4.9 2.2 3 2.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wigan down, Reading across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,888 League One matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wigan at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Reading away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Wigan, 1.32 for Reading. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~REA 3–0 WIG · WIG 1–2 REA · WIG 1–2 REA · REA 2–0 WIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 30 Aug

WIGAN

LWLDLL0–1 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

READING

WLWDDW3–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	10	+6	19
2	Bradford	9	+3	17
3	Stockport County	9	+9	16
4	Huddersfield	9	+7	16
5	Cambridge United	9	+3	16
6	Reading	9	+11	15
7	Oxford United	8	+7	15
8	Sheffield Wednesday	8	+7	15
9	Stevenage	8	+4	12
10	Burton Albion	10	−2	12
11	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
12	AFC Wimbledon	9	−3	12
13	Leyton Orient	9	+2	11
14	Luton	8	+1	11
15	Wycombe	9	−6	10
16	Doncaster	8	0	9
17	Leicester	8	−4	9
18	Blackpool	8	−1	8
19	Barnsley	8	−7	8
20	Peterborough	9	−7	8
21	Bromley	8	−11	8
22	Notts County	8	−3	7
23	Milton Keynes Dons	8	−6	6
24	Wigan	8	−8	4