Stockport County v Bromley prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Stockport County 1–0 Bromley STOCKPORT COUNTY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stockport County win~~64%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.193

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.089

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stockport County win at 64%.
0′KICK-OFF Stockport County v Bromley
2′Much as we predicted: Stockport County was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–20–17
8′Much as we predicted: Stockport County was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–21–17
18′We published Stockport County at 64%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–12–5
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Stockport County 1–0 Bromley
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Stockport County win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
19′A goal for Stockport County on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–5
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Oliver Norwood · Stockport County
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–5
45′HALF-TIME Stockport County 1–0 Bromley
45′SECOND HALF Stockport County 1–0 Bromley
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Kamil Amadu Conteh · Bromley
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Stockport County win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
61′We published Stockport County at 64%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Stockport County · On: Josh Cogley · Off: Ben Osborn
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Stockport County · On: Harry Wood · Off: Jason Adigun
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Bromley · On: corey whitely · Off: Jodi Jones
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Bromley · On: Mikel Miller · Off: John Joshua Mckiernan
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Stockport County · On: Ethan Ennis · Off: Ryan Glover
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Stockport County · On: Lewis Fiorini · Off: Lewis Bate
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bromley · On: William Hondermarck · Off: Kamil Amadu Conteh
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bromley · On: Michael Cheek · Off: Victor Adeboyejo
77′We published Stockport County at 64%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Grant Smith · Bromley
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Stockport County · On: Mikael Mandron · Off: Jack Diamond
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Stockport County win: 64% at kick-off, 94% now
85′We published Stockport County at 64%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Stockport County 1–0 Bromley
FTStockport County 1–0 Bromley · Stockport County win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stockport County are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stockport County 64%, draw 19%, Bromley 17%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Stockport County v BromleyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stockport County win64%

Draw19%

Bromley win17%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEdgeley Park

Line-ups

Stockport County

3-4-3

Bromley

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stockport County

Bromley

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Stockport County	9	+9	16
21	Bromley	8	−11	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stockport County

3-4-3

1 O. Whatmuff

25 M. Jobe

6 E. O'Connell

5 E. Pye

15 R. Glover

4 L. Bate

10 O. Norwood

23 B. Osborn

7 J. Diamond

19 K. Wootton

20 J. Adigun

Coach · Jim McNulty

Substitutes

2 · J. Dacres-Cogley

16 · H. Wood

18 · L. Fiorini

22 · M. Mandron

30 · E. Ennis

29 · A. Sidibeh

9 · B. Andresson

Bromley

4-2-3-1

1 G. Smith

12 M. Ifill

5 O. Sowunmi

45 A. Jackson

17 J. Mendy

22 K. Conteh

6 G. Saville

10 J. Jones

28 J. J. McKiernan

11 M. Pinnock

20 V. Adeboyejo

Coach · Andy Woodman

Substitutes

31 · O. Mason

21 · K. Grant

16 · W. Hondermarck

9 · M. Cheek

14 · N. Kabamba

18 · C. Whitely

19 · M. Miller

Our number · stockport county winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

64% The market76%

Us64%

~~Market~~76%

We make Stockport County a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stockport County v Bromley~~2.23 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 8~~3 v 21

~~The market · Stockport County win~~76% · ours 64%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stockport County win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stockport County win	64%	76%	−12
Draw	19%	15%	+4
Bromley win	17%	9%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	63%	70%	−7
Both teams to score	57%	55%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	87%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	41%	50%	−9
Stockport County or draw	83%	91%	−8
Stockport County clean sheet	36%	–	–
Bromley clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.1 4.1 2.1 1 8.7 8.8 4.5 2 9.5 9.6 4.9 3 7.0 7.1 3.6 4 4.0 4.0 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stockport County down, Bromley across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,888 League One matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stockport County at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bromley away: 1.50 scored, 2.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Stockport County, 1.03 for Bromley. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BRO 1–3 STO · STO 1–1 BRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

STOCKPORT COUNTY

LWLDWW0–2 · 4–0 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

BROMLEY

LLLDWL2–7 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	10	+6	19
2	Bradford	9	+3	17
3	Stockport County	9	+9	16
4	Huddersfield	9	+7	16
5	Cambridge United	9	+3	16
6	Reading	9	+11	15
7	Oxford United	8	+7	15
8	Sheffield Wednesday	8	+7	15
9	Stevenage	8	+4	12
10	Burton Albion	10	−2	12
11	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
12	AFC Wimbledon	9	−3	12
13	Leyton Orient	9	+2	11
14	Luton	8	+1	11
15	Wycombe	9	−6	10
16	Doncaster	8	0	9
17	Leicester	8	−4	9
18	Blackpool	8	−1	8
19	Barnsley	8	−7	8
20	Peterborough	9	−7	8
21	Bromley	8	−11	8
22	Notts County	8	−3	7
23	Milton Keynes Dons	8	−6	6
24	Wigan	8	−8	4