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Stockport County v Barnsley

Stockport County

3–1Full time

Barnsley

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Edgeley Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Stockport County 3–1 Barnsley STOCKPORT COUNTY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stockport County win~~58%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.260

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.176

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stockport County win at 58%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Stockport County 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–21
3′KICK-OFF Stockport County v Barnsley
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Stockport County 0–0 Barnsley · Patrick Kelly
16′13′ and it is 0–1: Patrick Kelly on the scoresheet for Barnsley. 0–1 · 31–24–45
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Stockport County 0–1 Barnsley · Patrick Kelly
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Stockport County win: 58% at kick-off, 31% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Barnsley win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Stockport County win 31%)
21′We said Stockport County at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–25–46
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Cameron McGeehan · Barnsley
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Stockport County win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 25–26–49
37′We said Stockport County at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–27–51
44′We said Stockport County at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–27–53
45′SECOND HALF Stockport County 0–1 Barnsley
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Stockport County · On: Lewis Fiorini · Off: Lewis Bate
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Stockport County win: 58% at kick-off, 17% now
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Stockport County 1–1 Barnsley · Patrick Kelly
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Stockport County 1–1 Barnsley · Kyle Wootton
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Harry Wood · Stockport County
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Barnsley · On: Jubril Okedina · Off: Tyrese Noslin
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Stockport County · On: Jason Adigun · Off: Harry Wood
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Barnsley · On: S. Gale · Off: Connor O'Riordan
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Barnsley · On: Jonathan Bland · Off: Royce Brownlie
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Stockport County 2–1 Barnsley · Kyle Wootton
72′⚽ GOAL · 73' Stockport County 2–1 Barnsley · Kyle Wootton
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Barnsley · On: O'Rian Andrew Reid · Off: Vimal Yoganathan
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Jack Shepherd · Barnsley
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Stockport County · On: Mikael Mandron · Off: Jack Diamond
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Stockport County · On: Mikael Mandron · Off: Jack Diamond
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Stockport County 3–1 Barnsley · Kyle Wootton
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Stockport County 3–1 Barnsley · Mikael Mandron (assist Jason Adigun)
93′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Stockport County · On: Mamadou Jobe · Off: Ben Osborn
FTFULL TIME Stockport County 3–1 Barnsley
FTStockport County 3–1 Barnsley · Stockport County win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Stockport County win58%

Draw21%

Barnsley win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Barnsley backed to land ex-Stoke City star in £0 transfer on one conditionFootball League World · 20 hours ago · Barnsley, Stoke City

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Edgeley Park

Referee · Martin Coy

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Stockport County

3-4-3

1 O. Whatmuff

24 K. Gordon

6 E. O'Connell

5 E. Pye

15 R. Glover

4 L. Bate

10 O. Norwood

23 B. Osborn

7 J. Diamond

19 K. Wootton

16 H. Wood

Coach · Jim McNulty

Substitutes

2 · J. Dacres-Cogley

25 · M. Jobe

20 · J. Adigun

18 · L. Fiorini

22 · M. Mandron

30 · E. Ennis

9 · B. Andresson

Barnsley

4-3-3

25 R. Ravenhill

11 T. Noslin

6 C. O'Riordan

5 J. Shepherd

2 A. Kay

45 V. Yoganathan

8 C. McGeehan

22 P. Kelly

17 A. Richards

32 R. Brownlie

19 R. Cleary

Coach · Daniel Stendel

Substitutes

51 · K. Flavell

12 · J. Okedina

4 · S. Gale

30 · J. Bland

13 · C. Taylor

36 · L. Alker

46 · O. Reid

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Stockport County

3-4-3

1 O. Whatmuff

24 K. Gordon

6 E. O'Connell

5 E. Pye

15 R. Glover

4 L. Bate

10 O. Norwood

23 B. Osborn

7 J. Diamond

19 K. Wootton

16 H. Wood

Coach · Jim McNulty

Substitutes

2 · J. Dacres-Cogley

25 · M. Jobe

20 · J. Adigun

18 · L. Fiorini

22 · M. Mandron

30 · E. Ennis

9 · B. Andresson

Barnsley

4-3-3

25 R. Ravenhill

11 T. Noslin

6 C. O'Riordan

5 J. Shepherd

2 A. Kay

45 V. Yoganathan

8 C. McGeehan

22 P. Kelly

17 A. Richards

32 R. Brownlie

19 R. Cleary

Coach · Daniel Stendel

Substitutes

51 · K. Flavell

12 · J. Okedina

4 · S. Gale

30 · J. Bland

13 · C. Taylor

36 · L. Alker

46 · O. Reid

Our number · stockport county winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

58% The market66%

Us58%

~~Market~~66%

We make Stockport County a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stockport County win	58%	66%	−7
Draw	21%	19%	+2
Barnsley win	21%	15%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	64%	66%	−2
Both teams to score	60%	60%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	42%	47%	−5
Stockport County or draw	79%	85%	−6
Stockport County clean sheet	31%	–	–
Barnsley clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.9 4.5 2.7 1 7.9 9.2 5.4 2.2 2 8.2 9.5 5.6 2.3 3 5.7 6.7 4.0 4 3.1 3.6 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stockport County down, Barnsley across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,875 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stockport County at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Barnsley away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Stockport County, 1.19 for Barnsley. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAR 1–3 STO · STO 1–1 BAR · STO 2–1 BAR · BAR 1–1 STO

Form · last six in League One

STOCKPORT COUNTY

WLWLDW5–1 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 1–0

BARNSLEY

DWWLLD0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	9	+5	16
2	Bradford	8	+3	16
3	Huddersfield	8	+7	15
4	Sheffield Wednesday	7	+7	14
5	Stockport County	8	+7	13
6	Cambridge United	8	+2	13
7	Reading	8	+7	12
8	Burton Albion	9	−1	12
9	AFC Wimbledon	8	−2	12
10	Oxford United	6	+6	11
11	Leyton Orient	8	+2	10
12	Wycombe	8	−3	10
13	Stevenage	7	+3	9
14	Leicester	7	−2	9
15	Blackpool	7	0	8
16	Luton	7	−2	8
17	Mansfield Town	7	−3	8
18	Barnsley	7	−5	8
19	Bromley	7	−10	8
20	Notts County	7	−2	7
21	Doncaster	7	−1	6
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	−2	6
23	Peterborough	8	−9	5
24	Wigan	7	−7	4