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Stevenage v Wigan

Stevenage

1–0Full time

Wigan

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Broadhall Way

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Stevenage 1–0 Wigan STEVENAGE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Stevenage win~~43%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.487

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.462

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stevenage win at 43%.
3′Much as we predicted: Stevenage was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–31–26
3′KICK-OFF Stevenage v Wigan
31′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Finley Burns · Wigan
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Stevenage win 35%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Stevenage win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
46′SECOND HALF Stevenage 0–0 Wigan
50′We said Stevenage at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–50–20
52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Charlie Gray · Wigan
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Stevenage 1–0 Wigan
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Stevenage 1–0 Wigan · Wanya Marcal
61′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Finley Burns · Wigan
61′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Charlie Gray · Wigan
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Stevenage 1–0 Wigan · Wanya Marcal (assist Josh Magennis)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Wigan · On: Fraser Murray · Off: Jeremiah Chilokoa-Mullen
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Wigan · On: Reggie Walsh · Off: Bradley Burrowes
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Stevenage · On: Ben Broggio · Off: O. Sanderson
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Stevenage · On: Louis Thompson · Off: Matthew Smith
68′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Reggie Walsh · Wigan
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stevenage · On: Phoenix Patterson · Off: Wanya Marcal
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stevenage · On: Michael Mellon · Off: Josh Magennis
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Wigan · On: Archie Harris · Off: Jensen Weir
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Wigan · On: Sonny Tufail Perkins · Off: Jon Mellish
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' James Carragher · Wigan
FTFULL TIME Stevenage 1–0 Wigan
FTStevenage 1–0 Wigan · Stevenage win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Stevenage win43%

Draw31%

Wigan win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Broadhall Way

Referee · Abigail Byrne

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Stevenage

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Setford

2 L. James-Wildin

15 T. Vancooten

5 C. Piergianni

14 S. Earley

18 O. Sanderson

8 D. Phillips

24 M. Smith

25 W. Marcal

10 D. Kemp

9 J. Magennis

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · D. Barden

4 · J. Houghton

16 · K. Casey

23 · L. Thompson

27 · B. Broggio

44 · P. Patterson

28 · M. Mellon

Wigan

4-2-3-1

41 J. Whitworth

8 M. Power

5 F. Burns

23 J. Carragher

4 J. Chilokoa-Mullen

18 C. Gray

6 J. Weir

2 C. Barrett

27 B. Burrowes

22 J. Mellish

25 S. Hogan

Coach · Gary Caldwell

Substitutes

1 · J. Walsh

16 · A. Harris

21 · K. Miller

7 · F. Murray

10 · R. Walsh

38 · C. Saydee

9 · S. Perkins

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Stevenage

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Setford

2 L. James-Wildin

15 T. Vancooten

5 C. Piergianni

14 S. Earley

18 O. Sanderson

8 D. Phillips

24 M. Smith

25 W. Marcal

10 D. Kemp

9 J. Magennis

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · D. Barden

4 · J. Houghton

16 · K. Casey

23 · L. Thompson

27 · B. Broggio

44 · P. Patterson

28 · M. Mellon

Wigan

4-2-3-1

41 J. Whitworth

8 M. Power

5 F. Burns

23 J. Carragher

4 J. Chilokoa-Mullen

18 C. Gray

6 J. Weir

2 C. Barrett

27 B. Burrowes

22 J. Mellish

25 S. Hogan

Coach · Gary Caldwell

Substitutes

1 · J. Walsh

16 · A. Harris

21 · K. Miller

7 · F. Murray

10 · R. Walsh

38 · C. Saydee

9 · S. Perkins

Our number · stevenage winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

43% The market44%

Us43%

~~Market~~44%

We make Stevenage a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stevenage win	43%	44%	−1
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Wigan win	26%	27%	0
Over 2.5 goals	31%	43%	−12
Both teams to score	37%	49%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	58%	67%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	13%	24%	−11
Stevenage or draw	74%	73%	0
Stevenage clean sheet	45%	–	–
Wigan clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.2%

0123450 14.6 11.6 4.7 1 16.2 12.9 5.3 2 9.2 7.3 3.0 3 3.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stevenage down, Wigan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,875 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stevenage at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Wigan away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Stevenage, 0.81 for Wigan. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~STE 1–0 WIG · WIG 0–0 STE · STE 1–2 WIG · WIG 0–0 STE

Form · last six in League One

STEVENAGE

LDDWWL1–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

WIGAN

LLWLDL0–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	9	+5	16
2	Bradford	8	+3	16
3	Huddersfield	8	+7	15
4	Sheffield Wednesday	7	+7	14
5	Stockport County	8	+7	13
6	Cambridge United	8	+2	13
7	Reading	8	+7	12
8	Burton Albion	9	−1	12
9	AFC Wimbledon	8	−2	12
10	Oxford United	6	+6	11
11	Leyton Orient	8	+2	10
12	Wycombe	8	−3	10
13	Stevenage	7	+3	9
14	Leicester	7	−2	9
15	Blackpool	7	0	8
16	Luton	7	−2	8
17	Mansfield Town	7	−3	8
18	Barnsley	7	−5	8
19	Bromley	7	−10	8
20	Notts County	7	−2	7
21	Doncaster	7	−1	6
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	−2	6
23	Peterborough	8	−9	5
24	Wigan	7	−7	4