Stevenage v Plymouth prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Stevenage 3–0 Plymouth PLYMOUTH WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Plymouth win~~37%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.633

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.626

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Plymouth win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Plymouth 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 35–28–37
1′KICK-OFF Stevenage v Plymouth
5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Ronan Curtis · Plymouth
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Louis Thompson · Stevenage
19′Michael Mellon scores for Stevenage on 19′. 0–0 · 33–32–35
20′We said Plymouth at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 65–22–13
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Stevenage 1–0 Plymouth · Michael Mellon (assist Josh Magennis)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Plymouth win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Stevenage win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Plymouth win 35%)
27′We said Plymouth at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–0 · 88–9–3
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Stevenage 2–0 Plymouth
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Plymouth win: 37% at kick-off, 3% now
28′Stevenage ahead on 27′ through Josh Magennis. 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' A. Revell · Stevenage
45′HALF-TIME Stevenage 2–0 Plymouth
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Plymouth · On: Xavier Amaechi · Off: Ronan Curtis
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Plymouth · On: Caleb Watts · Off: Oliver Irow
46′SECOND HALF Stevenage 2–0 Plymouth
60′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Stevenage · On: Phoenix Patterson · Off: Ben Broggio
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Stevenage · On: O. Sanderson · Off: Michael Mellon
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Stevenage · On: Terry·Taylor · Off: Louis Thompson
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Plymouth · On: Matthew Sorinola · Off: Joe Edwards
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Plymouth · On: Bradley Ibrahim · Off: Tyreeq Bakinson
83′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Stevenage 3–0 Plymouth
84′Phoenix Patterson scores for Stevenage on 83′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Plymouth · On: Julio Pleguezuelo · Off: Alex·Hartridge
90′3–0 at the end. Our 37% on Plymouth misses, and the record keeps it. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Stevenage 3–0 Plymouth
FTStevenage 3–0 Plymouth · Plymouth win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Plymouth just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Stevenage 35%, draw 27%, Plymouth 37%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Stevenage v PlymouthBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Stevenage win35%

Draw27%

Plymouth win37%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueBroadhall Way

Line-ups

Stevenage

4-4-1-1

Plymouth

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stevenage

Plymouth

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Plymouth	11	+4	19
12	Stevenage	9	+2	12

In the news

from the pressAll ›

3 Plymouth Argyle players who must be fearing for their futuresFootball League World · 20 Oct 16:00 · Plymouth

Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth Argyle will pray Huddersfield Town transfer fear comes trueFootball League World · 20 Oct 08:00 · Sheffield Wednesday, Plymouth, Huddersfield

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stevenage

4-4-1-1

1 T. Setford

2 L. James-Wildin

15 T. Vancooten

5 C. Piergianni

14 S. Earley

28 M. Mellon

23 L. Thompson

8 D. Phillips

27 B. Broggio

10 D. Kemp

9 J. Magennis

Coach · A. Revell

Substitutes

12 · D. Barden

20 · C. Campbell

16 · K. Casey

44 · P. Patterson

18 · O. Sanderson

4 · T. Taylor

19 · T. Turhan

Plymouth

4-4-2

1 M. Mahoney

8 J. Edwards

15 A. Mitchell

22 A. Hartridge

45 W. Harding

11 R. Curtis

19 T. Bakinson

7 H. White

14 O. Irow

9 W. Evans

27 A. Pepple

Coach · Tom Cleverley

Substitutes

17 · C. Watts

21 · James Storer

29 · M. Sorinola

5 · Julio Pleguezuelo

3 · Jack Mackenzie

23 · B. Ibrahim

10 · X. Amaechi

Our number · plymouth winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 03:52 · locked at kick-off

37% The market36%

Us37%

~~Market~~36%

We make Plymouth a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stevenage v Plymouth~~1.18 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 1 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 19~~12 v 4

~~The market · Plymouth win~~36% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Plymouth win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stevenage win	35%	36%	−1
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Plymouth win	37%	36%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	51%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	56%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	69%	73%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	22%	31%	−9
Stevenage or draw	63%	64%	−1
Stevenage clean sheet	30%	–	–
Plymouth clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.2 11.1 6.8 2.8 1 10.7 12.8 7.8 3.2 2 6.3 7.6 4.6 3 2.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stevenage down, Plymouth across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stevenage at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Plymouth away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Stevenage, 1.22 for Plymouth. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PLY 1–0 STE · STE 1–1 PLY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 1 Sept

STEVENAGE

DWWLWL0–0 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

PLYMOUTH

WWLWWL3–0 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bradford	10	+5	20
2	Stockport County	10	+10	19
3	Huddersfield	10	+9	19
4	Plymouth	11	+4	19
5	Cambridge United	10	+4	19
6	Sheffield Wednesday	9	+12	18
7	Reading	10	+10	15
8	Oxford United	8	+7	15
9	Leyton Orient	10	+4	14
10	Burton Albion	11	−2	13
11	Wycombe	10	−4	13
12	Stevenage	9	+2	12
13	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
14	Leicester	9	−3	12
15	AFC Wimbledon	10	−8	12
16	Luton	9	0	11
17	Doncaster	9	−1	9
18	Milton Keynes Dons	9	−5	9
19	Peterborough	10	−7	9
20	Blackpool	9	−3	8
21	Barnsley	9	−8	8
22	Bromley	9	−12	8
23	Notts County	9	−5	7
24	Wigan	9	−7	7