Stevenage v Milton Keynes Dons prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Stevenage 0–1 Milton Keynes Dons STEVENAGE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stevenage win~~49%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.889

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.873

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stevenage win at 49%.
2′Much as we predicted: Stevenage was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
2′KICK-OFF Stevenage v Milton Keynes Dons
8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons
11′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Josh Magennis · Stevenage
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Aaron Collins · Milton Keynes Dons
37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Carl Piergianni · Stevenage
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Stevenage win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
43′We said Stevenage at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–42–21
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Stevenage win 39%)
45′HALF-TIME Stevenage 0–0 Milton Keynes Dons
46′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Jack Sanders · Milton Keynes Dons
46′SECOND HALF Stevenage 0–0 Milton Keynes Dons
50′We said Stevenage at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–19
60′We said Stevenage at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Stevenage win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Stevenage · On: Kaelan Casey · Off: Luther Wildin
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Stevenage · On: O. Sanderson · Off: Ben Broggio
68′We said Stevenage at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
74′We said Stevenage at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Stevenage win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
79′We said Stevenage at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
81′We said Stevenage at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–11–88
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Stevenage 0–1 Milton Keynes Dons
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Stevenage win: 49% at kick-off, 1% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Milton Keynes Dons win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 81%)
82′Milton Keynes Dons ahead on 81′ through Sam Nombe. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–10–89
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Ben Wiles · Off: Dan Crowley
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Callum Paterson · Off: Sam Nombe
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Stevenage · On: Terry·Taylor · Off: Daniel Phillips
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Stevenage · On: Phoenix Patterson · Off: Michael Mellon
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Stevenage · On: Chem Campbell · Off: Daniel Kemp
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Gethin Jones · Off: Samuel Silvera
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Milton Keynes Dons · On: ibrahim fullah · Off: Aaron Collins
FTFULL TIME Stevenage 0–1 Milton Keynes Dons
FTStevenage 0–1 Milton Keynes Dons · Stevenage win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stevenage are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stevenage 49%, draw 27%, Milton Keynes Dons 24%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Stevenage v Milton Keynes DonsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Stevenage win49%

Draw27%

Milton Keynes Dons win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueBroadhall Way

Line-ups

Stevenage

4-4-1-1

Milton Keynes Dons

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stevenage

Milton Keynes Dons

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Stevenage	10	+5	15
20	Milton Keynes Dons	10	−7	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stevenage

4-4-1-1

1 T. Setford

2 L. James-Wildin

15 T. Vancooten

5 C. Piergianni

14 S. Earley

28 M. Mellon

23 L. Thompson

8 D. Phillips

27 B. Broggio

10 D. Kemp

9 J. Magennis

Coach · A. Revell

Substitutes

19 · T. Turhan

7 · T. Taylor

18 · O. Sanderson

44 · P. Patterson

16 · K. Casey

20 · C. Campbell

12 · D. Barden

Milton Keynes Dons

3-1-4-2

23 W. Dennis

21 M. Ekpiteta

5 C. Goode

32 J. Sanders

24 R. Wintle

17 S. Silvera

7 D. Crowley

8 A. Gilbey

20 Elijah Xavier Campbell

9 S. Nombe

10 A. Collins

Coach · P. Warne

Substitutes

26 · B. Wiles

13 · C. Paterson

2 · G. Jones

22 · I. Fullah

15 · C. Bramall

4 · D. Barlaser

51 · S. Stacey

Our number · stevenage winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

49% The market48%

Us49%

~~Market~~48%

We make Stevenage a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stevenage v Milton Keynes Dons~~1.38 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 9~~9 v 20

~~The market · Stevenage win~~48% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stevenage win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stevenage win	49%	48%	+1
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Milton Keynes Dons win	24%	25%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	46%	−7
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	26%	−7
Stevenage or draw	76%	75%	+1
Stevenage clean sheet	42%	–	–
Milton Keynes Dons clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 10.8 9.3 4.1 1 14.6 12.4 5.4 2 9.9 8.5 3.7 3 4.6 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stevenage down, Milton Keynes Dons across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League One matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stevenage at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Milton Keynes Dons away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Stevenage, 0.87 for Milton Keynes Dons. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~STE 1–1 MIL · MIL 2–2 STE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

STEVENAGE

WWLWLW5–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–0

MILTON KEYNES DONS

DDDLWL3–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockport County	11	+12	22
2	Huddersfield	11	+12	22
3	Bradford	11	+5	21
4	Cambridge United	11	+4	20
5	Plymouth	12	+1	19
6	Reading	11	+11	18
7	Sheffield Wednesday	10	+10	18
8	Oxford United	9	+8	18
9	Stevenage	10	+5	15
10	Leicester	10	+1	15
11	Mansfield Town	10	+1	15
12	Leyton Orient	11	+3	14
13	Luton	10	+1	14
14	Burton Albion	12	−2	14
15	Wycombe	11	−4	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	11	−11	12
17	Blackpool	10	−1	11
18	Notts County	10	−3	10
19	Doncaster	10	−3	9
20	Milton Keynes Dons	10	−7	9
21	Peterborough	11	−10	9
22	Barnsley	10	−9	8
23	Bromley	10	−16	8
24	Wigan	10	−8	7