Sheffield Wednesday v AFC Wimbledon prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Sheffield Wednesday 5–0 AFC Wimbledon SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sheffield Wednesday win~~65%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.186

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.266

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sheffield Wednesday win at 65%.
1′KICK-OFF Sheffield Wednesday v AFC Wimbledon
2′Little has changed for our model: Sheffield Wednesday 65% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–21–15
8′Little has changed for our model: Sheffield Wednesday 65% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–22–15
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Sheffield Wednesday win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
37′Sheffield Wednesday have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 54–31–15
38′We said Sheffield Wednesday at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–32–15
39′A goal for Sheffield Wednesday on 38′. 0–0 · 53–32–15
40′We said Sheffield Wednesday at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
40′⚽ GOAL · 38' Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 AFC Wimbledon · Barry Bannan (assist Davis Keillor-Dunn)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Sheffield Wednesday win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
41′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
41′We said Sheffield Wednesday at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 AFC Wimbledon
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Sheffield Wednesday win: 65% at kick-off, 97% now
42′Davis Keillor-Dunn scores for Sheffield Wednesday on 39′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
45′HALF-TIME Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 AFC Wimbledon
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AFC Wimbledon · On: Marcus Browne · Off: Aron Sasu
46′SECOND HALF Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 AFC Wimbledon
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AFC Wimbledon · On: James Tilley · Off: Callum Maycock
47′We said Sheffield Wednesday at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
47′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
47′45′: Harry Gray on the scoresheet for Sheffield Wednesday, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 AFC Wimbledon
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Reece James · Sheffield Wednesday
57′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
57′Sheffield Wednesday ahead on 56′ through Callum Slattery. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Sheffield Wednesday 4–0 AFC Wimbledon
59′Sheffield Wednesday ahead on 56′ through Callum Slattery. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Jaden Heskey · Sheffield Wednesday
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sheffield Wednesday · On: Billy Mitchell · Off: Barry Bannan
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sheffield Wednesday · On: Ali Al-Hamadi · Off: Jamal Lowe
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sheffield Wednesday · On: Gabriel·Otegbayo · Off: Liam Cooper
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' AFC Wimbledon · On: Zack Nelson · Off: Ollie Harrison
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Andy Yiadom · AFC Wimbledon
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' AFC Wimbledon · On: Harry Cornick · Off: Jayden Stockley
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Sheffield Wednesday · On: Max Lowe · Off: Di'Shon Bernard
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sheffield Wednesday · On: Kieran Morrison · Off: Harry Gray
85′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Sheffield Wednesday 5–0 AFC Wimbledon
86′Davis Keillor-Dunn scores for Sheffield Wednesday on 85′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sheffield Wednesday 5–0 AFC Wimbledon
FTSheffield Wednesday 5–0 AFC Wimbledon · Sheffield Wednesday win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sheffield Wednesday are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sheffield Wednesday 65%, draw 20%, AFC Wimbledon 15%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Sheffield Wednesday v AFC WimbledonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sheffield Wednesday win65%

Draw20%

AFC Wimbledon win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueHillsborough Stadium

Line-ups

Sheffield Wednesday

4-2-3-1

AFC Wimbledon

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sheffield Wednesday

AFC Wimbledon

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sheffield Wednesday	8	+7	15
12	AFC Wimbledon	9	−3	12

In the news

from the pressAll ›

6 Henrik Pedersen upgrades that David Storch must consider at Sheffield WednesdayFootball League World · 17 Oct 08:32 · Sheffield Wednesday

Exciting new Louie Barry update emerges at Sheffield WednesdayFootball League World · 16 Oct 15:19 · Sheffield Wednesday

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sheffield Wednesday

4-2-3-1

13 A. Maynard-Brewer

7 Y. Valery

5 D. Bernard

6 L. Cooper

33 R. James

18 J. Heskey

10 B. Bannan

8 C. Slattery

50 D. Keillor-Dunn

24 H. Gray

9 J. Lowe

Coach · Henrik Pedersen

Substitutes

27 · C. Trueman

3 · M. Lowe

2 · L. Palmer

20 · K. Morrison

22 · G. Otegbayo

16 · B. Mitchell

12 · A. Al Hamadi

AFC Wimbledon

5-4-1

39 J. Bursik

2 S. Sessegnon

17 A. Yiadom

6 R. Johnson

3 S. Seddon

29 A. Sasu

8 C. Maycock

12 A. Smith

5 O. Harrison

21 M. Hippolyte

9 J. Stockley

Coach · Johnnie Jackson

Substitutes

20 · J. McDonnell

15 · F. Simmonds

22 · R. Horan

11 · M. Browne

7 · J. Tilley

10 · Z. Nelson

23 · H. Cornick

Our number · sheffield wednesday winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

65% The market58%

Us65%

~~Market~~58%

We make Sheffield Wednesday a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sheffield Wednesday v AFC Wimbledon~~2.03 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 12~~8 v 12

~~The market · Sheffield Wednesday win~~58% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sheffield Wednesday win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sheffield Wednesday win	65%	58%	+7
Draw	20%	23%	−3
AFC Wimbledon win	15%	19%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	53%	57%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	55%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	36%	−4
Sheffield Wednesday or draw	85%	81%	+4
Sheffield Wednesday clean sheet	45%	–	–
AFC Wimbledon clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 6.2 5.0 2.1 1 12.0 9.5 3.9 2 11.8 9.3 3.8 3 8.0 6.2 2.5 4 4.2 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sheffield Wednesday down, AFC Wimbledon across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,888 League One matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sheffield Wednesday at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Wimbledon away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Sheffield Wednesday, 0.81 for AFC Wimbledon. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SHE 2–1 AFC · AFC 2–2 SHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY

WWWDDD7–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2

AFC WIMBLEDON

LWWDDL1–4 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	10	+6	19
2	Bradford	9	+3	17
3	Stockport County	9	+9	16
4	Huddersfield	9	+7	16
5	Cambridge United	9	+3	16
6	Reading	9	+11	15
7	Oxford United	8	+7	15
8	Sheffield Wednesday	8	+7	15
9	Stevenage	8	+4	12
10	Burton Albion	10	−2	12
11	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
12	AFC Wimbledon	9	−3	12
13	Leyton Orient	9	+2	11
14	Luton	8	+1	11
15	Wycombe	9	−6	10
16	Doncaster	8	0	9
17	Leicester	8	−4	9
18	Blackpool	8	−1	8
19	Barnsley	8	−7	8
20	Peterborough	9	−7	8
21	Bromley	8	−11	8
22	Notts County	8	−3	7
23	Milton Keynes Dons	8	−6	6
24	Wigan	8	−8	4