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Model 1.2

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Plymouth v Huddersfield

Plymouth
0–2Full time
Huddersfield

League One · SAT 17 OCT · Home Park

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Plymouth 0–2 Huddersfield PLYMOUTH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Plymouth win49%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.811
The market’s Brier score0.608

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Plymouth win at 49%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Plymouth v Huddersfield
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Plymouth was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–23–28
  4. 7′Huddersfield score on 6′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 26–22–52
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Plymouth 0–1 Huddersfield
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Plymouth win: 49% at kick-off, 26% now
  7. 7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Huddersfield win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Plymouth win 26%)
  8. 8′We said Plymouth at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–23–52
  9. 12′We said Plymouth at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–23–53
  10. 30′We said Plymouth at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–56
  11. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Plymouth win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
  12. 31′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 19–24–57
  13. 45′We said Plymouth at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Plymouth 0–1 Huddersfield
  15. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Plymouth · On: Matthew Sorinola · Off: Jack Mackenzie
  16. 49′SECOND HALF Plymouth 0–1 Huddersfield
  17. 55′We said Plymouth at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–89
  18. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Plymouth 0–2 Huddersfield
  19. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Plymouth win: 49% at kick-off, 2% now
  20. 57′Huddersfield ahead on 55′ through Bojan Radulovic. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
  21. 57′We said Plymouth at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
  22. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Plymouth · On: Tyreeq Bakinson · Off: Bradley Ibrahim
  23. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Plymouth · On: Xavier Amaechi · Off: Ronan Curtis
  24. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Plymouth · On: Oliver Irow · Off: Will Evans Corrected
  25. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Plymouth · On: Oliver Irow · Off: Aribim Pepple
  26. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Huddersfield · On: Ashley Fletcher · Off: Bojan Radulovic
  27. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Huddersfield · On: Marcus Harness · Off: Joe Taylor
  28. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Plymouth · On: Jared Rendle · Off: Caleb Watts
  29. FTFULL TIME Plymouth 0–2 Huddersfield
  30. FTPlymouth 0–2 Huddersfield · Plymouth win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Plymouth are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Plymouth 49%, draw 23%, Huddersfield 28%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Plymouth v HuddersfieldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Plymouth win49%
Draw23%
Huddersfield win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueHome Park

Line-ups

Plymouth

4-4-2

Huddersfield

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Plymouth

Huddersfield

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League One

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Plymouth10+619
4Huddersfield9+716

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Plymouth

4-4-2

1 M. Cooper

45 W. Harding

15 A. Mitchell

22 A. Hartridge

3 J. MacKenzie

11 R. Curtis

23 B. Ibrahim

7 H. White

17 C. Watts

9 W. Evans

27 A. Pepple

Coach · Tom Cleverley

Substitutes

21 · J. Storer

5 · J. Pleguezuelo

29 · M. Sorinola

19 · T. Bakinson

14 · O. Irow

10 · X. Amaechi

42 · J. Rendle

Huddersfield

3-4-2-1

1 M. Young

5 J. Low

15 I. Bowat

23 S. Roughan

22 I. Bronkhorst

8 A. Collins

20 C. Humphreys

19 B. Mumba

30 D. Sanches Fernandes

9 J. Taylor

25 B. Radulovic

Coach · Liam Manning

Substitutes

31 · J. Alnwick

7 · L. Gooch

14 · E. Brierley

2 · L. Sorensen

11 · A. Fletcher

10 · M. Harness

34 · S. Tovide

Our number · plymouth winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
49% The market36%
Us49%
Market36%

We make Plymouth a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Plymouth v Huddersfield1.82 – 1.32
Form · last six in League One this season · since 1 SeptW5 D0 L1 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 19 v 161 v 4
The market · Plymouth win36% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50%55% 11 OCT 03:5917 OCT 14:00
Our probability · Plymouth win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Plymouth win49%36%+13
Draw23%27%−4
Huddersfield win28%37%−9
Over 2.5 goals60%57%+3
Both teams to score61%61%0
Over 1.5 goals82%78%+4
Over 3.5 goals38%37%+1
Plymouth or draw72%63%+9
Plymouth clean sheet27%––
Huddersfield clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%
0123450 4.5 5.9 3.8 1 8.0 10.3 6.8 3.0 2 7.2 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 4.3 5.6 3.7 4 2.0 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Plymouth down, Huddersfield across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored4 of 4
Last meetingsPLY 3–1 HUD · HUD 3–1 PLY · HUD 1–1 PLY · PLY 3–1 HUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 1 Sept

PLYMOUTH

WWWLWW3–2 · 3–0 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

HUDDERSFIELD

WDDLWD3–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Plymouth10+619
2Bradford9+317
3Stockport County9+916
4Huddersfield9+716
5Cambridge United9+316
6Reading9+1115
7Oxford United8+715
8Sheffield Wednesday8+715
9Stevenage8+412
10Burton Albion10−212
11Mansfield Town9−212
12AFC Wimbledon9−312
13Leyton Orient9+211
14Luton8+111
15Wycombe9−610
16Doncaster809
17Leicester8−49
18Blackpool8−18
19Barnsley8−78
20Peterborough9−78
21Bromley8−118
22Notts County8−37
23Milton Keynes Dons8−66
24Wigan8−84

The competition's standings before kick-off.