Peterborough v Burton Albion

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Peterborough win at 47%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Peterborough 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
3. 1′KICK-OFF Peterborough v Burton Albion
4. 3′A goal for Peterborough on 2′. 0–0 · 47–25–28
5. 4′We said Peterborough at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–17–11
6. 4′⚽ GOAL · 2' Peterborough 1–0 Burton Albion · Owura Edwards (assist Harry Leonard)
7. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Peterborough win: 47% at kick-off, 72% now
8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–8
9. 30′8 shots for Peterborough, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 42–31–27
10. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Peterborough 1–1 Burton Albion
11. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Peterborough win: 47% at kick-off, 42% now
12. 32′30′: Charlie Webster on the scoresheet for Burton Albion, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 41–32–26
13. 45′HALF-TIME Peterborough 1–1 Burton Albion
14. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Burton Albion · On: Gbemi Arubi · Off: Matthew Dennis
15. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Peterborough win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
16. 46′SECOND HALF Peterborough 1–1 Burton Albion
17. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Peterborough win 36%)
18. 51′We said Peterborough at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–41–24
19. 53′We said Peterborough at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–23
20. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Burton Albion · On: Sulyman Krubally · Off: F. Delap
21. 63′We said Peterborough at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
22. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Peterborough win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
23. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Peterborough · On: Brandon·Singh Khela · Off: Harry Ashfield
24. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Peterborough · On: Matthew Garbett · Off: Owura Edwards
25. 70′We said Peterborough at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
26. 76′We said Peterborough at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–14
27. 77′Peterborough have had 17 attempts to 12 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 18–69–13
28. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Carl Johnston · Peterborough
29. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Peterborough win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
30. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Raphael Borges Rodrigues · Burton Albion
31. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Brandon·Singh Khela · Peterborough
32. 81′We said Peterborough at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–77–10
33. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Peterborough · On: D. Ormerod · Off: Harry Leonard
34. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Peterborough · On: Vernon Masara · Off: Bolu Shofowoke
35. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Burton Albion · On: Emeka Adeile · Off: Raphael Borges Rodrigues
36. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Burton Albion · On: M. O’Mahony · Off: Caylon Vickers
37. 85′We said Peterborough at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
38. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Peterborough win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
39. 88′We said Peterborough at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–6–93
40. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Peterborough 1–2 Burton Albion
41. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Burton Albion win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 6%)
42. 89′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–6–94
43. 90′Burton Albion ahead on 89′ through Gbemi Arubi. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
44. 90′2–2 at the end. Our 47% on Peterborough misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
45. 97′90′: Matthew Garbett on the scoresheet for Peterborough. 1–2 · 0–2–98 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
46. 97′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 2–97–1
47. 97′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Peterborough 2–2 Burton Albion · Matthew Garbett
48. 97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Burton Albion win 1%)
49. FTFULL TIME Peterborough 2–2 Burton Albion
50. FTPeterborough 2–2 Burton Albion · Peterborough win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.