Oxford United v Wigan prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Oxford United 2–1 Wigan OXFORD UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oxford United win~~54%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.317

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.411

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oxford United win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Oxford United was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
1′KICK-OFF Oxford United v Wigan
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Jensen Weir · Wigan
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Charlie Gray · Wigan
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Oxford United win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
41′Oxford United have had 8 attempts to 0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 43–37–20
43′We said Oxford United at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–38–19
44′44′: Michał Helik on the scoresheet for Oxford United. 0–0 · 42–39–19
44′We published Oxford United at 54%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Oxford United 1–0 Wigan · Michał Helik
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Oxford United win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
45′HALF-TIME Oxford United 1–0 Wigan
45′SECOND HALF Oxford United 1–0 Wigan
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Wigan · On: Christian Saydee · Off: Connor Barrett
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Wigan · On: Reggie Walsh · Off: Charlie Gray
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Oxford United win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
64′We published Oxford United at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Oxford United · On: Aidomo Emakhu · Off: Tyler Goodrham
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Oxford United · On: Luka Lynch · Off: Mo Missanga
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Wigan · On: Jon Mellish · Off: Scott Hogan
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Cameron Brannagan · Oxford United
70′We said Oxford United at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–61–13
70′Oxford United have had 16 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 26–61–13
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Oxford United 1–1 Wigan
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Oxford United win: 54% at kick-off, 26% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Oxford United win 87%)
71′69′: Christian Saydee on the scoresheet for Wigan, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–62–13
72′We said Oxford United at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–64–12
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Oxford United win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
72′🟥 RED CARD · 72' Wigan
73′A red card for Wigan on 72′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 23–65–12
76′We published Oxford United at 54%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Gary Caldwell · Wigan
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Oxford United 2–1 Wigan
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Oxford United win: 54% at kick-off, 90% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Oxford United win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 70%)
77′Oxford United ahead on 76′ through Kai Andrews. 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
78′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 91–9–1
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Siriki Dembele · Oxford United
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Oxford United win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
84′We published Oxford United at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Wigan · On: K'Marni Miller · Off: Archie Harris
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Wigan · On: Chris Sze · Off: Bradley Burrowes
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Oxford United · On: Louie Sibley · Off: Siriki Dembele
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Finley Burns · Wigan
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Mark Harris · Oxford United
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Oxford United · On: L. Snowden · Off: Mark Harris
FTFULL TIME Oxford United 2–1 Wigan
FTOxford United 2–1 Wigan · Oxford United win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oxford United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oxford United 54%, draw 25%, Wigan 21%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Oxford United v WiganBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Oxford United win54%

Draw25%

Wigan win21%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueKassam Stadium

Line-ups

Oxford United

4-2-3-1

Wigan

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oxford United

Wigan

5Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · the English League One

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Oxford United	8	+7	15
24	Wigan	9	−7	7

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Wigan pine for FA Cup glory as not even victory can lift them off foot of League OneThe Guardian · 18 Oct 08:00 · Wigan

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Oxford United

4-2-3-1

1 J. Cumming

15 B. Spencer

6 M. Helik

3 C. Brown

26 J. Currie

8 C. Brannagan

4 Kai Andrews

57 M. Missanga

11 T. Goodrham

23 S. Dembélé

9 M. Harris

Coach · A. Ramsey

Substitutes

20 · L. Lynch

2 · S. Long

22 · G. Leigh

10 · A. Emakhu

13 · S. Eastwood

32 · L. Sibley

27 · L. Snowden

Wigan

4-2-3-1

41 J. Whitworth

4 J. Chilokoa-Mullen

5 F. Burns

3 M. Fox

16 Archie Harris

18 Charlie Gray

6 J. Weir

2 C. Barrett

27 B. Burrows

7 F. Murray

25 S. Hogan

Coach · G. Caldwell

Substitutes

22 · J. Mellish

21 · K'Marni Miller

38 · C. Saydee

9 · S. Perkins

19 · C. Sze

1 · J. Walsh

10 · R. Walsh

Our number · oxford united winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

54% The market48%

Us54%

~~Market~~48%

We make Oxford United a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oxford United v Wigan~~1.63 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 1 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 7~~8 v 24

~~The market · Oxford United win~~48% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Oxford United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oxford United win	54%	48%	+6
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Wigan win	21%	26%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	51%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	55%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	30%	−5
Oxford United or draw	79%	74%	+5
Oxford United clean sheet	41%	–	–
Wigan clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 8.2 7.4 3.3 1 12.9 11.5 5.3 2 10.4 9.2 4.2 3 5.7 5.0 2.3 4 2.4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oxford United down, Wigan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oxford United at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Wigan away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Oxford United, 0.91 for Wigan. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~OXF 4–2 WIG · WIG 2–0 OXF · WIG 1–1 OXF · OXF 2–3 WIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 1 Sept

OXFORD UNITED

LWWDWD1–3 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

WIGAN

WLDLLW3–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bradford	10	+5	20
2	Stockport County	10	+10	19
3	Huddersfield	10	+9	19
4	Plymouth	11	+4	19
5	Cambridge United	10	+4	19
6	Sheffield Wednesday	9	+12	18
7	Reading	10	+10	15
8	Oxford United	8	+7	15
9	Leyton Orient	10	+4	14
10	Burton Albion	11	−2	13
11	Wycombe	10	−4	13
12	Stevenage	9	+2	12
13	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
14	Leicester	9	−3	12
15	AFC Wimbledon	10	−8	12
16	Luton	9	0	11
17	Doncaster	9	−1	9
18	Milton Keynes Dons	9	−5	9
19	Peterborough	10	−7	9
20	Blackpool	9	−3	8
21	Barnsley	9	−8	8
22	Bromley	9	−12	8
23	Notts County	9	−5	7
24	Wigan	9	−7	7