Oxford United v Stockport County prediction · League One

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Oxford UnitedDrawStockport County

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Oxford United 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oxford United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oxford United 42%, draw 25%, Stockport County 33%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Oxford United v Stockport CountyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Oxford United win42%

Draw25%

Stockport County win33%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 9

VenueKassam Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oxford United

Stockport County

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Stockport County	12	+12	23
7	Oxford United	10	+8	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oxford united winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market29%

Us42%

~~Market~~29%

We make Oxford United a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oxford United v Stockport County~~1.53 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 23~~7 v 2

~~The market · Oxford United win~~29% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oxford United win	42%	29%	+13
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Stockport County win	33%	45%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Oxford United or draw	67%	55%	+12
Oxford United clean sheet	27%	–	–
Stockport County clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.0 7.8 5.1 2.3 1 8.9 11.5 7.6 3.4 2 6.7 8.7 5.7 2.5 3 3.4 4.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oxford United down, Stockport County across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,923 League One matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Oxford United at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Stockport County away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Oxford United, 1.33 for Stockport County. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept

OXFORD UNITED

WDWDWD3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

STOCKPORT COUNTY

DWWWWD0–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Huddersfield	12	+13	25
2	Stockport County	12	+12	23
3	Bradford	12	+5	22
4	Plymouth	13	+2	22
5	Reading	12	+12	21
6	Cambridge United	12	+3	20
7	Oxford United	10	+8	19
8	Sheffield Wednesday	11	+8	18
9	Mansfield Town	11	+4	18
10	Luton	11	+2	17
11	Burton Albion	13	−1	17
12	Stevenage	11	+4	15
13	Leicester	11	0	15
14	Wycombe	12	−4	15
15	Leyton Orient	12	+2	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	12	−11	13
17	Doncaster	11	−1	12
18	Milton Keynes Dons	11	−6	12
19	Notts County	11	−3	11
20	Blackpool	11	−4	11
21	Peterborough	12	−10	10
22	Bromley	11	−16	9
23	Barnsley	11	−10	8
24	Wigan	11	−9	7