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Model 1.2

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Oxford United v Bradford

Oxford United
0–0Full time
Bradford

League One · SAT 24 OCT · Kassam Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Oxford United 0–0 Bradford OXFORD UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Oxford United win46%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.823
The market’s Brier score0.765

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Oxford United win at 46%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Oxford United was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Oxford United v Bradford
  4. 23′7 shots for Oxford United, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 42–32–26
  5. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Callumm Connolly · Bradford
  6. 26′Oxford United have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 41–33–26
  7. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Oxford United win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  8. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Oxford United win 38%)
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Oxford United 0–0 Bradford
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Oxford United 0–0 Bradford
  11. 48′We said Oxford United at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–22
  12. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' George Christopher John Pratt · Bradford
  13. 53′Oxford United have had 12 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 32–47–21
  14. 55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–48–21
  15. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Bradford · On: Nick Powell · Off: Will Swan
  16. 59′We said Oxford United at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
  17. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Oxford United · On: Mark Harris · Off: Tyler Goodrham
  18. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Oxford United · On: Aidomo Emakhu · Off: Mo Missanga
  19. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Oxford United win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
  20. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Oxford United · On: Peter Kioso · Off: Jack Currie
  21. 67′We said Oxford United at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
  22. 74′We said Oxford United at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
  23. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Oxford United win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
  24. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Oxford United · On: Luka Lynch · Off: Gatlin O Donkor
  25. 79′We said Oxford United at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
  26. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Bradford · On: Adam Phillips · Off: Kayden Jackson
  27. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Bradford · On: Kieran Morgan · Off: George Lapslie
  28. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Oxford United · On: Louie Sibley · Off: Cameron Brannagan
  29. 84′We said Oxford United at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–86–6
  30. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Oxford United win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
  31. 90′We said Oxford United at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–3
  32. 90′Full time, 0–0. We called Oxford United at 46% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  33. FTFULL TIME Oxford United 0–0 Bradford
  34. FTOxford United 0–0 Bradford · Oxford United win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oxford United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oxford United 46%, draw 27%, Bradford 27%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Oxford United v BradfordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Oxford United win46%
Draw27%
Bradford win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueKassam Stadium

Line-ups

Oxford United

4-2-3-1

Bradford

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oxford United

Bradford

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League One

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Bradford11+521
8Oxford United9+818

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Oxford United

4-2-3-1

1 J. Cumming

15 B. Spencer

6 M. Helik

3 C. Brown

26 J. Currie

4 Kai Andrews

8 C. Brannagan

57 M. Missanga

11 T. Goodrham

23 S. Dembélé

19 G. O'Donkor

Coach · A. Ramsey

Substitutes

13 · S. Eastwood

10 · A. Emakhu

9 · M. Harris

30 · P. Kioso

2 · S. Long

20 · L. Lynch

32 · L. Sibley

Bradford

3-4-2-1

21 J. McCracken

28 M. Pennington

15 A. Baldwin

16 George Christopher John Pratt

27 C. O'Keeffe

10 A. Sarcevic

6 C. Connolly

3 I. Touray

32 G. Lapslie

24 W. Swan

19 K. Jackson

Coach · M. Duff

Substitutes

25 · N. Powell

23 · B. Pointon

8 · A. Phillips

22 · Kieran Morgan

5 · M. Gillesphey

1 · C. Dawson

9 · J. Beesley

Our number · oxford united winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
46% The market35%
Us46%
Market35%

We make Oxford United a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Oxford United v Bradford1.41 – 1.01
Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 SeptW4 D2 L0 · W3 D3 L0
Table places · points 18 v 218 v 3
The market · Oxford United win35% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:15
Our probability · Oxford United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Oxford United win46%35%+11
Draw27%29%−2
Bradford win27%36%−9
Over 2.5 goals43%49%−6
Both teams to score47%54%−7
Over 1.5 goals69%72%−3
Over 3.5 goals23%28%−5
Oxford United or draw73%64%+9
Oxford United clean sheet37%––
Bradford clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%
0123450 9.2 9.2 4.6 1 12.6 12.4 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 8.6 4.3 3 4.2 4.1 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Oxford United down, Bradford across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

OXFORD UNITED

WWDWDW4–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

BRADFORD

WWDDWD1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Stockport County11+1222
2Huddersfield11+1222
3Bradford11+521
4Cambridge United11+420
5Plymouth12+119
6Reading11+1118
7Sheffield Wednesday10+1018
8Oxford United9+818
9Stevenage10+515
10Leicester10+115
11Mansfield Town10+115
12Leyton Orient11+314
13Luton10+114
14Burton Albion12−214
15Wycombe11−414
16AFC Wimbledon11−1112
17Blackpool10−111
18Notts County10−310
19Doncaster10−39
20Milton Keynes Dons10−79
21Peterborough11−109
22Barnsley10−98
23Bromley10−168
24Wigan10−87

The competition's standings before kick-off.