Notts County v Stockport County prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Notts County 1–1 Stockport County STOCKPORT COUNTY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Stockport County win~~42%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.825

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.967

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stockport County win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Stockport County 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
1′KICK-OFF Notts County v Stockport County
11′A goal for Notts County on 11′. 0–0 · 31–28–40
12′We said Stockport County at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 60–23–18
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Notts County 1–0 Stockport County
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Stockport County win: 42% at kick-off, 18% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Notts County win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Stockport County win 40%)
23′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Nicholas Tsaroulla · Notts County
27′We said Stockport County at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 63–23–14
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Stockport County win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
42′Stockport County have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 66–23–11
47′We said Stockport County at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
48′Stockport County have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 68–23–9
55′12 shots for Stockport County, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 70–22–7
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Ben Osborn · Stockport County
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Notts County · On: Jack Evans · Off: D. Kanu
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Notts County · On: Darius Lipsiuc · Off: Nicholas Tsaroulla
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Stockport County · On: Ethan Ennis · Off: Ben Osborn
65′We said Stockport County at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Stockport County · On: Josh Cogley · Off: Ryan Glover
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Stockport County · On: Benoný Breki Andrésson · Off: Jack Diamond
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Luka Smyth · Notts County
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' oliver whatmuff · Stockport County
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Stockport County win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Stockport County · On: Adama Sidibeh · Off: Harry Wood
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Stockport County · On: Lewis Fiorini · Off: Lewis Bate
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Notts County · On: lee ndlovu · Off: Luka Smyth
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Lucas Ness · Notts County
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Notts County 1–1 Stockport County
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Stockport County win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Notts County win 88%)
82′Adama Sidibeh scores for Stockport County on 81′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 9–80–11
84′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Rod McDonald · Notts County
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Notts County · On: Max Sanders · Off: Scott Robertson
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Notts County · On: Hindolo Mustapha · Off: Conor·Grant
90′16 shots for Stockport County, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 4–92–4
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Stockport County win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Notts County 1–1 Stockport County
FTNotts County 1–1 Stockport County · Stockport County win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stockport County are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Notts County 32%, draw 26%, Stockport County 42%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Notts County v Stockport CountyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Notts County win32%

Draw26%

Stockport County win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueMeadow Lane

Line-ups

Notts County

3-4-3

Stockport County

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Notts County

Stockport County

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League One

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Blackburn Rovers will have big Newcastle United transfer envy after Notts County revelationFootball League World · 24 Oct 07:40 · Blackburn, Newcastle, Notts County

BBC to show Cray Wanderers v Stockport & Altrincham v Notts CountyBBC Sport · 22 Oct 17:31 · Cray Wanderers, Altrincham, Notts County

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Notts County

3-4-3

1 J. Gibbons

12 L. Ness

3 R. McDonald

4 J. Bedeau

25 N. Tsaroulla

27 R. Finneran

20 S. Robertson

26 I. Samuels-Smith

19 L. Smyth

9 D. Kanu

11 C. Grant

Coach · M. Paterson

Substitutes

15 · J. Evans

2 · J. Gibbons

14 · D. Lipsiuc

42 · H. Mustapha

39 · L. Ndlovu

7 · C. Roberts

6 · M. Sanders

Stockport County

3-4-3

1 Oliver Whatmuff

25 M. Jobe

6 E. O'Connell

5 E. Pye

15 R. Glover

10 O. Norwood

4 L. Bate

23 B. Osborn

7 J. Diamond

19 K. Wootton

16 H. Wood

Coach · J. McNulty

Substitutes

29 · Adama Sidibeh

22 · M. Mandron

18 · L. Fiorini

30 · Ethan Ennis

2 · J. Dacres-Cogley

9 · B. Andrésson

20 · J. Adigun

Our number · stockport county winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

42% The market59%

Us42%

~~Market~~59%

We make Stockport County a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Notts County v Stockport County~~1.20 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 22~~18 v 1

~~The market · Stockport County win~~59% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stockport County win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Notts County win	32%	17%	+15
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Stockport County win	42%	59%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	48%	53%	−5
Both teams to score	52%	51%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	75%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	33%	−7
Notts County or draw	58%	41%	+17
Notts County clean sheet	25%	–	–
Stockport County clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.6 10.5 7.3 3.4 1 9.0 12.2 8.5 4.0 2 5.4 7.3 5.1 2.4 3 2.2 3.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Notts County down, Stockport County across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League One matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Notts County at home: 1.20 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 5). Stockport County away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Notts County, 1.40 for Stockport County. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NOT 2–5 STO · STO 2–1 NOT · STO 3–0 NOT · NOT 2–1 STO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

NOTTS COUNTY

DLLLLW1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–0

STOCKPORT COUNTY

LDWWWW3–4 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockport County	11	+12	22
2	Huddersfield	11	+12	22
3	Bradford	11	+5	21
4	Cambridge United	11	+4	20
5	Plymouth	12	+1	19
6	Reading	11	+11	18
7	Sheffield Wednesday	10	+10	18
8	Oxford United	9	+8	18
9	Stevenage	10	+5	15
10	Leicester	10	+1	15
11	Mansfield Town	10	+1	15
12	Leyton Orient	11	+3	14
13	Luton	10	+1	14
14	Burton Albion	12	−2	14
15	Wycombe	11	−4	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	11	−11	12
17	Blackpool	10	−1	11
18	Notts County	10	−3	10
19	Doncaster	10	−3	9
20	Milton Keynes Dons	10	−7	9
21	Peterborough	11	−10	9
22	Barnsley	10	−9	8
23	Bromley	10	−16	8
24	Wigan	10	−8	7