Notts County v Sheffield Wednesday prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Notts County 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sheffield Wednesday win~~50%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.858

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.862

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sheffield Wednesday win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sheffield Wednesday 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 26–25–49
1′KICK-OFF Notts County v Sheffield Wednesday
14′SUBSTITUTION · 14' Sheffield Wednesday · On: Gabriel·Otegbayo · Off: Di'Shon Bernard
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Callum Slattery · Sheffield Wednesday
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Luka Smyth · Notts County
38′Notts County have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 23–36–41
39′Notts County ahead on 38′ through D. Kanu. 1–0. 1–0 · 59–26–15
39′We said Sheffield Wednesday at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 59–26–15
39′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 59–26–15
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Notts County 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday · D. Kanu (penalty)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Sheffield Wednesday win: 50% at kick-off, 15% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Notts County win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Sheffield Wednesday win 41%)
41′We said Sheffield Wednesday at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
45′HALF-TIME Notts County 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sheffield Wednesday · On: Ali Al-Hamadi · Off: Callum Slattery
46′SECOND HALF Notts County 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Conor·Grant · Notts County
51′Sheffield Wednesday are down to ten from 50′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 64–25–11
51′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Jamal Lowe · Sheffield Wednesday
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+7' Sheffield Wednesday win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
55′We said Sheffield Wednesday at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Sheffield Wednesday · On: Billy Mitchell · Off: Barry Bannan
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Sheffield Wednesday · On: Max Lowe · Off: Reece James
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Notts County · On: lee ndlovu · Off: Luka Smyth
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Notts County · On: Callum Roberts · Off: Nicholas Tsaroulla
69′We said Sheffield Wednesday at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Notts County · On: Darius Lipsiuc · Off: Conor·Grant
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Notts County · On: Max Sanders · Off: Scott Robertson
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sheffield Wednesday · On: Kieran Morrison · Off: Gabriel·Otegbayo
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Notts County · On: Jack Evans · Off: D. Kanu
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Notts County 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Sheffield Wednesday win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
83′Darius Lipsiuc scores for Notts County on 81′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Jaden Heskey · Sheffield Wednesday
FTFULL TIME Notts County 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday
FTNotts County 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday · Sheffield Wednesday win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sheffield Wednesday are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Notts County 26%, draw 25%, Sheffield Wednesday 50%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Notts County v Sheffield WednesdayBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Notts County win26%

Draw25%

Sheffield Wednesday win50%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueMeadow Lane

Line-ups

Notts County

3-4-2-1

Sheffield Wednesday

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Notts County

Sheffield Wednesday

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sheffield Wednesday	9	+12	18
23	Notts County	9	−5	7

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Barry Bannan reacts as Sheffield Wednesday fan reveals impressive tattooFootball League World · 20 Oct 14:19 · Sheffield Wednesday

Middlesbrough & Cardiff City men should follow Wrexham star to Sheffield Wednesday in JanuaryFootball League World · 20 Oct 08:15 · Middlesbrough, Cardiff, Wrexham, Sheffield Wednesday

12 players set to miss Notts County v Sheffield Wednesday ft Joe LumleyFootball League World · 19 Oct 20:00 · Notts County, Sheffield Wednesday

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Notts County

3-4-2-1

1 J. Gibbons

12 L. Ness

3 R. McDonald

4 J. Bedeau

25 N. Tsaroulla

27 R. Finneran

20 S. Robertson

26 I. Samuels-Smith

19 L. Smyth

11 C. Grant

9 D. Kanu

Coach · M. Paterson

Substitutes

6 · M. Sanders

15 · J. Evans

2 · J. Gibbons

14 · D. Lipsiuc

10 · R. Longelo-Mbule

39 · L. Ndlovu

7 · C. Roberts

Sheffield Wednesday

4-2-3-1

13 A. Maynard-Brewer

7 Y. Valery

5 D. Bernard

6 L. Cooper

33 R. James

10 B. Bannan

18 Jaden Heskey

8 C. Slattery

50 D. Keillor-Dunn

24 H. Gray

9 J. Lowe

Coach · H. Pedersen

Substitutes

12 · Ali Al Hamadi

16 · B. Mitchell

20 · K. Morrison

22 · G. Otegbayo

3 · M. Lowe

2 · L. Palmer

27 · C. Trueman

Our number · sheffield wednesday winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

50% The market48%

Us50%

~~Market~~48%

We make Sheffield Wednesday a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Notts County v Sheffield Wednesday~~1.06 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 1 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 18~~23 v 6

~~The market · Sheffield Wednesday win~~48% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sheffield Wednesday win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Notts County win	26%	25%	+1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Sheffield Wednesday win	50%	48%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	30%	−2
Notts County or draw	50%	52%	−2
Notts County clean sheet	21%	–	–
Sheffield Wednesday clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.4 11.3 8.8 4.8 1 7.7 11.6 9.0 4.8 2.0 2 4.1 6.2 4.8 2.5 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Notts County down, Sheffield Wednesday across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Notts County at home: 1.00 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Notts County, 1.60 for Sheffield Wednesday. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 1 Sept

NOTTS COUNTY

DDLLLL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY

WWDDDW2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bradford	10	+5	20
2	Stockport County	10	+10	19
3	Huddersfield	10	+9	19
4	Plymouth	11	+4	19
5	Cambridge United	10	+4	19
6	Sheffield Wednesday	9	+12	18
7	Reading	10	+10	15
8	Oxford United	8	+7	15
9	Leyton Orient	10	+4	14
10	Burton Albion	11	−2	13
11	Wycombe	10	−4	13
12	Stevenage	9	+2	12
13	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
14	Leicester	9	−3	12
15	AFC Wimbledon	10	−8	12
16	Luton	9	0	11
17	Doncaster	9	−1	9
18	Milton Keynes Dons	9	−5	9
19	Peterborough	10	−7	9
20	Blackpool	9	−3	8
21	Barnsley	9	−8	8
22	Bromley	9	−12	8
23	Notts County	9	−5	7
24	Wigan	9	−7	7